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The Shia Crecent Is Starting to Break... Shias losing Lebanon,Syria and Iraq

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Just as any war of attrition taxes a military force, large or small, Syria's war has taken a toll on Hezbollah. Unlike Bashar al-Assad or Iran's Ali Khamenei, who can mute dissent, Hezbollah's ability to project power relies on the support of Lebanon's Shiites.


No public surveys are available that capture the sentiment of these Shiites. Hezbollah keeps a lid on the numbers of its fighters and casualties. Yet, anecdotal evidence suggests that Lebanon's Shiite population is thinning out. Families are searching for better lives away from the "society of resistance" and its perpetual war. In the extended Shiite family I hail from, only one of 11 men and five of 16 women, between the ages of 18 and 50, live in Lebanon today.


Hezbollah is a formidable military force. Its social, media and financial institutions are impressive. Yet the party realizes that, to maintain its edge, it has to nurture its supporters and their needs. After the 2006 July War against Israel, the party's leadership was so embarrassed by the destruction that had befallen the areas of its supporters that it had to deflect Shiite anger toward Lebanon's Sunnis and Druze, accusing them of conspiring against the Shiites to "force them to go back to the days when they worked as shoeshine boys."


The party's trick worked. In 2008, it led the military takeover of western Beirut, creating a fait accompli that overturned decisions taken by Sunni Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s cabinet that threatened the party while also forcing an end to a political deadlock that saw the creation of a unity government. Around the same time, US President George Bush and his French counterpart Jacques Chirac, both sworn enemies of Hezbollah and Assad, left office. That same year, Ankara sponsored indirect peace talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv, opening the door for Assad escape his international isolation.


The "Axis of Resistance" of Hezbollah and Assad ran out of luck, however, with the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. During the early months of the conflict, Hezbollah was happy with its role of propagating Assad's narrative, that there was no war in Syria, and that if there was one; Syrian militants were sponsored by former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, an improbability that Hezbollah and the Shiites conveniently believed.


Like other minorities in the Levant, Syria's Alawites try to avoid long wars. Minorities employ brutal force early on in conflicts in the hope of instilling fear in the hearts of the enemy and ending the fight fast before demographics can decide the winner.


The Assad regime was expected to behave accordingly and not engage Syria's Sunnis, who outnumber the Alawites by 6 to 1, in a protracted war.


Iran, however, had a different idea. If we believe the literature from that period, like the profile on Qassem Suleimani in the New Yorker and the account of defecting Syrian diplomat in Washington Bassam Barabandi, it was Tehran that told Assad that, with its support, he could win this battle.


Iran then instructed Hezbollah to enter Syria and save Assad. The party did an impressive job, conquering areas that Assad's mechanized elite forces had repeatedly failed in taking.


But before winning in Syria, the party had to present its supporters with a narrative. It said its Syria campaign was going to be short and would defeat Sunni extremists. Then, there was a blowback and the extremists took the war to Beirut, which the party successfully stopped. Yet despite the victories it celebrated, Hezbollah continued fighting in Syria with the elusive promise of finishing off the rebels "soon."


In the meantime, Hezbollah's resources, both military and civilian, have been strained. The party thus enlisted the American-armed Lebanese Army to fight Sunnis around Lebanon. The army and its presidential hopeful commander happily obliged, but was no match to the border militias, therefore forcing the party to remain engaged.


Today, there is hardly a Shiite village that has not lost a dozen or more of its men. Sooner or later, Hezobllah will run out of men to recruit, which will pose a serious problem for the party.


Perhaps in Iran, where almost every one of the 70 million is Shiite, numbers do not matter. But they do in Lebanon, where at one million, the Shiites form a quarter of the population. In Syria, the Alawites, who are not Shiites, number two million out of 16 million Syrians. The number of Shiites in Syria is statistically insignificant.


Iran can send advisers to Syria and Iraq to supplement the Shiite-Alawite ranks, but cannot send troops. Because of language and cultural differences, Iranians in combat would be easily identified and targeted. They would barely be able to communicate with host villages that they would supposedly be defending.


The disparity in numbers that clearly favors the Sunnis in the Levant is beginning to catch up with Hezbollah, despite its superior military capabilities. Hezbollah finds itself exhausted and bruised, and there seems to be no end in sight.


Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau Chief of Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai. He tweets @hahussainH

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According to senior intelligence agents hezbollah has not lost 1000 fighters but 3000-4000. Lebanese city of Tripoli has become a bastion of Sunni fighters and the country is more divided then ever. Hezbollah is looking for an exit out of syria but the Iranians won't let them leave until a favourable agreement to Iran is reached in Syria.



In Syria the current death toll according to the alawite assembly is 60,000 dead and more then 100,000 injured. Which has in effect left the alawite community defeated and fighting for existence. They have run out of men so much that they are importing Shia hazar Afghanis from Iran.






In Iraq the shia are being pushed back and now all they have left is Baghdad and the southern regions. The number of Shia dead in Iraq is in the 100,000 thousands.




This appears similar to the first Islamic conquest of Persia. Were a small Muslim army destroyed the entire Persian empire and it's Arab client tribes under general khalid ibn Waleed.

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You got that wrong ....


Actually the Shia is getting a momentum and the way it looks they will be the dominant in the Arab region. Syria, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and recently Yemen are all under the Shia now and they are even expanding to more countries.


I guess Wahabism is in trouble and Saudi Arabia is really worried.

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Sorry to dissapoint you but reality is showing different facts on the ground.

The Takfiri cannibalists, headcutters, rapists and wahabis failed to capture Syria, to make Syria into Puppet State just like Saudi Arabia.

The Popular resistance(Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Hamas) rejected this Zionist agenda. The muslims will never allow Syria to become safe haven for headcutters, rapists and other takfiri groups.

Shia Muslim dominance is evident in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Iran. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will be liberated from wahabi zionist dictatorship.

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