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xiinfaniin

The End of Xiinfaniin's Peace Caravan

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Cadale   

odayaal 50kii taaban rabo khiyaali isku heysto walle iyo bille waa arin laga naxo. adeeroyaal sidani isku dhaama yaakhe.

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Hawdian   

After the lost of jubboyinka and the fact that madobe has now accepted the title of governor for jubba region. The dreams of federal clanism is lost The HAG in MOG are bent on ruling from Gaalkacyo to Kismaayo with the support of the IC. For some Koonfuria seems to back for others the caravan dream of entering xamar is finish.

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Oodweyne   

Mintid,

 

Apparently, as North, has also cottoned onto, our friend, Xiinfaniin, is still trying to play for the gallery with a fictitious game of "innocent abroad". And by that I mean, here we trying, in polite way, to suggest to him, that, just because he "lost" this round of political game in Somalia, doesn't have to be a situation, whereby he needs to laments the "fate" of Somalia; Particularly any more than that fate needed to be lamented when the likes of Col. Yey was calling the shot of Somalia at the “Villa Somalia” in Mogadishu.

 

Furthermore, just because the likes of Hassan Sheikh had cooked your "political chicken" by playing a "blinder" of a game against you, with the added touch of panache that had you being reduced to as someone who basically "rage" impotently on the side-lines, doesn't have to be made akin to a situation where the end of Somalia is at hand. Particularly any more than any other circumstances in the last 20 or so odd years of Somalia may have warranted such a prognosis.

 

However, unfortunately, our friend, Xiinfaniin, is so transparent in his flimsy argument, that one wonders whether he really believes the half of the stuff he comes up with in here. But, then, again, as some British verbal artist once had it, mischievously, that if you found yourself seeing your wife being “humped” by your neighbour, because you couldn't, in life of you, do the "husbandly duty", then the best cause of action is not to wonder whether the "faults" is in you; but, on the contrary, it's best to assume, that mankind is going to the dogs... :D

 

And in this context, our Xiinfaniin, seemed to have notice (rather late in the day, if I may say so) that all of the "scheming", and all the manner of "bamboozling wiles", in which the "elites of Pirate-land" have been engaging ever since the said Hassan Sheikh came to power, have resulted a naught for them. Hence, his "sky-is-falling" lamentation in which it's "mercy-inducing-tears" we seemed to behold in here today.

 

All in all; let’s hope that he and the "elites" in pirate-land, in which he represent will realize that Somalia's fate (meaning the fate of the Italian's Somalia) will henceforth strictly revolves around the “desire” and the “destination” of the said "Pashtun of Somalia" and what in particularly they will like to see happen to that place.

 

And, therefore, in pursuant to that fact, it will be the best of all possible world, if him and his ilk, decide to settled down at the "back-seat" of the “political bus” of Somalia; just as our friend, namely our Gabbal and his ilk, have decided to do so, ever since the world made it abundantly clear that the destiny of Italian's Somalia will be determined - solely - from Mogadishu and it’s environment, from this point onward.

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Oodweyne,

 

I didn't think it would require me to break it down to you, but obviously we must do so in order to keep the discussion in its original context.

 

A quick recap of the current Somali situation is in order:

 

1. A failing government in Mogadishu. Failing because since it came into being it failed to make any significant political and security progress on the ground. And based on the Brussels road map, all indications are that it will fail to meet most of the important mile stones.

 

2. An strengthened Alshabaab in the South. Strengthened because the only forces keeping them at bay are foreign forces. Since 2012 after they lost Kismayo, Baydhabo, and Marka Alshabaab managed to not only survive but to also continue to be on the offense, succeeding to pull off impressive attacks on important targets, mainly in Mogadishu. If anything this shows that this organization is far from defeat. And according to the AMISOM leadership, defeating Alshabaab through military means is not a practical objective that can be achieved in their current capacity.

 

3. A deepening loss of trust among important stakeholders in the country. Puntland (I know you would lough it off) is dangerously serious in its position on the question of federalism. Mogadishu leadership are absolutely ill-equipped to move a needle on this important question partly because they themselves are deeply divided on how to move forward, and partly because they perceive a potential political backlash from President's own base. It is fair to say another reason they are sluggish on this front is the fact they are still entertaining to bring Hargeysa on-board with some sort of South-North confederation.

 

4. On the deepening mistrust, Jubbaland is slowly moving to attain a full federal state. The President and his team threw everything at it to no avail. In few months time, there will be a decisive move on this front. Though many of us welcome the emergence of another federal state especially in the South-Central Somalia, the political environment in which this will materialize signifies that this will not be a wholesome development the same way SL and PL are not. This is an important miss in our Caravan's promise.

 

5. Somaliland is still busy butting its poor head against Somalia's territorial integrity if we take what the leadership are saying on face value. In other words, there is no movement on that front.

 

 

In summary, a poor leadership in Mogadishu coupled with undefeated Alshabaab, and a predatory , opportunistic African forces that sees Somalia as a project spells a deadly combination. If this continues (signs are it will continue), our negative appraisal of the situation is sadly accurate.

 

This does not mean we are hopeless. It just means our Caravan's destination has been blocked. In Oodweyne village tradition, this means "ha dhakhlayso" for we have Puntland and Jubbaland ...:D

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Oodweyne   

Xiinfaniin,

 

I see where you going with this, but I am afraid your argument doesn’t hold water on several fronts. But, before we do justice as to where you may have fallen down on, lets gets the few things we agreed on out of the way, early on, and they are.

 

Firstly, I agree with you that the poor leadership of the current set-up in Mogadishu when it comes to “defeating” the likes of Al-Shabaab by now. For with all funds and men-power that are at their disposal, that “task” should been completed by now; or the very least ought to have been close to completion by now.

 

Secondly, the political confusion of the leadership when it comes to what sort of “federal system” they want for Somalia, and if that is known to them, how to go about in getting there, is also something I readily concede. For, that deep confusion has been by now a well-established “pedigree” to say the least.

 

Thirdly, the “presumed talks” between Somalia and Somaliland is dead-in-the-water, safe for few more formality round to come, which in turn, will not get anywhere fast. And, the reason is that the current leadership in Mogadishu knows perfectly well that Somaliland is determine to hold their collective feet to the fire in-terms of the “demanding” to talk about a “real substance” as opposed to mere waffle about talking for convenient sake.

 

Hence, the up-shot of it all, is that, for the next few rounds to come the talks will be most likely end in a “dead-lock” manner; and therefore each party will go their separate way to talk to the international community (IC) who originally engineered these talks. And in particularly so that “those-powers-that-be” will most likely take the appropriate steps to “resolve” the inherent the dead-lock that is coming into the view.

 

Those are the points I think I can agree with you; but, the larger issue of Post-transitional period and how Hassan Sheikh is playing the “cards” he has, I am afraid, you are bit on the wrong reading material in here. And, by that I mean, let’s take the issue of Pirate-land, and in here we can say, that that Farole have played poorly with his cards and in essence his “isolation” from larger Political stream of Somalia is complete.

 

Furthermore, he lost all of his allies within the corridors of the “Pashtun-of-Somalia”, which in turn could of help him, if that is the current PM Sacad were to found himself out of favour with his boss, and therefore it’s likely the next PM will be someone who has nothing to do with Puntland in general or Farole in particular; so long as Hassan Sheikh call the shot in Mogadishu.

 

Also, the issue of Kismayo may seem to you – at least at surface of it – as if it has been resolved to your satisfaction. But, the truth of the matter is that Ahmed Madobe, seemed to have made his “political bed” with the powers-that-be in Mogadishu, so long as they “recognise” him as a "leader” of that City.

 

Hence, what this means, is that his “price” has been found. Therefore in pursuant to that fact, one can safely say that, if ever a deep “demarche” were to occur over the direction of what sort of “federalism” Somalia will have, going forward, particularly between Punt-land on one hand and that of the Mogadishu’s folks on the other hand, then it’s likely that Mr Madobe will go with the folks in the capital, so long as they allow him to preen himself as the leader of Jubba region.

 

Subsequently, this means, when the fight is join between Farole and Hassan Sheikh, in earnest, our former warlord by the name of Mr. Ahmed Madobe, will most likely make his “tiresome excuses” and will be found “AWOL” from the ensuing fight. So that is that.

 

And finally, even the issue of federalism hasn’t been in legal “concretized” (a very ugly word, this is). And, by that I mean, the folks of Mogadishu (as you are well aware of it) do have their well-articulated reasons of doubting the “wisdom” of this system. But, they seemed to have decided that the “wind” is with them on this issue. Particularly, they semed to be convince that so long as they know that the final verdict of whether to go for the complete federal system will "hinge" on the public verdict, then they seemed to have convinced themselves that they can always “outvote” everyone else, in that day of “destiny”, which will be when this issue will be finally decided.

 

Consequently, their view is to not to put down a “concrete-house-of-a-federal-kind” till the day the public will have their say. And in the meantime they will keep the issue as “vague” as possible, or at least they will keep the political house of Somalia as “unfinished” as possible, so that when they are ready (meaning when Mogadishu is rebuild and their citizens are ready to render a verdict of what sort of “political system” they should have going forward) then they will say that if you folks in puntland wants a federal system, then let’s put it to “public of Somalia” and see whether you will win in sheer numbers alone; or whether, they will say, we will win with our view of having Somalia as a “decentralized unitary state”, which in turn will encompass all of the regions of the former Italian’s Somalia.

 

So as you can see even the your political holy-grail that is the “federal system” is not even a “sure thing”; much less therefore could you put your hope on the fact that Kismayo will be playing a “defensive role” for the “federal enthusiast”, of the kind Puntland is as a "forgone conclusion".

 

Hence, the up-shot of all these, is that as of now, the current leadership of Mogadishu has a “limited cards” to play as well a politically speaking, a non-plan in dealing with the likes of Al-Shabaab.

 

But, still, taking into account the entirety of those “negative caveat” (in which I have laid out before you), in which the folks in Mogadishu are belabouring under it, one could say that still also sufficient to, firstly, “isolate” puntland from real influence towards the rest of Somalia (particularly so long as Farole is in charge of the place); and secondly, keep the “federal system” up in the air without decisively resolving it in one way or another; and thirdly, “bribe” and “sweet-talk” the likes of Ahmed Madobe, to come to a “gentleman’s understanding” with the folks of Mogadishu at the expense of Puntland’s in general and Farole in particular, when the issue of Kismayo’s political fate is in the balance.

 

All in all; I think Hassan Sheikh may be inept and bumbling leader; or even a novice in poker game. But his limited play so far still indicated, that he seemed to have genuinely took the “measure” of elites of pirate-land, and indeed he seemed to have eaten their “lunch-money” without even breaking a sweat.

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Baashi   

It is true that the peace caravans is in distress, limping on and slow in covering a respectable distance in a reasonable time. Your write-up makes sense when read from that perspective.

 

But remember peace party is no match against Kelligii Muslims, Jirri and ********. Couple these characters with the harshness and unforgiving nature of the terrain the caravan must travel through – Ganaane marshlands, Boholaha Xargaga mountain range and Wardhiigley ghetto.

 

And I think I know why Xiin is disappointed with President Hassan. But remember folks Hassan just like Siilaanyo and Faroole has a clan base. He needs their political support to stay in the game. And his base found extremely difficult to watch Puntland and Jubbaland emerge from the long and bloody Somali civil war as the cornerstone of new and reconfigured Somalia.

 

Hassan is asked to preside this new reality where political power is devolved into two tier power arrangement under Federal Somalia. Under this new configuration, huge swaths of Somalia will be under control of the opposition clan. If you recall Faroole’s next move is to question Benadir’s status as the capital of Federal Somalia!

 

Just as Oodweyne and other biased secessionists out there, the clan activists in Benadir who paid precious blood and treasure for the singular reason that they want to alter Somalia’s political power scale, are at loss in how things are shaping up.

 

If the current course is left unchecked or unimpeded all the blood spilled and properties destroyed in order to defeat a large segment of the population would be in vain. To them, Somali civil war and all the destruction it had brought was necessary price to get rid of the clan dictatorship that dominated the political discourse of the nation before and after independence.

 

There is a reason why Oodweyne is living in parallel universe where the conflict has already been settled and one party has emerged victorious and is now calling the shots in the South. Oodweyne’s hallucination is a text book example of folks who exhibit schizophrenia over a desired outcome.

 

Awoowe the peace caravan is on the move. If Hassan failed to promote unbiased settlement between contestants the activists driving the peace caravan will be extremely disappointed but they will keep moving slowly but steadily. Slow and steady at the end wins the race a la sidii diinkii iyo bakeylihii tartamay berri.

 

As to the principles of Somalinimo and the exalted political dream of Somaliweyn yes they are discredited as it’s hard to find adherents to its dictates. But make no mistake Somalinimo and Somaliweyn are tenfold better than sad state of negative tribalism.

 

Anyone who wants to see Somalia that is strong and united will have to enlighten the masses the true meaning of Somaliweyn. The horn of Africa is a tough neighborhood and if elites of Ethiopia and Kenya manage to keep their ethnic collections under one state surely there must be a way to reconcile Somalis and persuade them to put their faith in social contract that draws lessons from all that went wrong.

The peace caravan’s mission is to remind folks that there is third way and things can be settled on a dirrin and that Somaliweyn is a national security imperative for Somali people in the region.

 

As Aesop’s fables will have it “United you will be more than a match for your enemies. But if you quarrel and separate, your weakness will put you at the mercy of those who attack you”.

 

Inna Kaadi-Najaasle supporting the Peace Caravan as the better alternative of the clan partisanship masquerading as real politick.

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Oodweyne   

Baashi,

 

Long time, no see, heh, Bro. But still your contribution is as ever a blind fury and a desperate lunge towards the debater in opposite to your argument; as opposed to any reasoning way in which what I have said may be far from the “truth”.

 

But, then again, as you know there is something that is call a “Goodwin Law”. And that law says, in any internet debate, whoever bring first the notion of calling others “Hitler” or "Nazis", should be assumed to have lost the argument.

 

Similarly, we should institute a similar law in here of SOL, and say, in any meaningful or even a heated debate, whoever brings first, a personal insults along the lines of calling people who disagree with you names (along the lines you have decided to clutch it in here now) ought to be politely considered to have lost the argument.

 

And therefore, his standing personal assault and indignant insults towards others, is but a token of his way of “waving” the flag of surrender in so far as the debate in hand is concern.

 

Consequently, in pursuant to that “new debating dictum”, I will be more than happy to consider your silly insults along the lines of accusing me of some sort of mental illness, as your way of fighting back, even, when you haven’t got a prayer of an argument to which to content my version of reality. Hence, all it’s forgiven in here, bro.. :D

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Baashi   

Forgiven eh Oh! Thank you then that's very nice of you.

 

Awoowe don't be touchy. I am not good at mud-slinging. I just don't do that. That said awoowe you should consider the Chinese proverb that says "The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their right name" instead of this Goodwin Law crab. A bit of Orientalism is good and refreshing. Try it awoowe.

 

I don't know how to describe of someone who makes a call of a contest that's still underway. In pursuant to the Chinese exhortation to call things by their right name I ask you what would you have called of someone who mistakes his deep and unfulfilled desires and the outcome he likes to see in a contest still underway with what is actually happening...

 

Nah! Don't bother.

 

I disagreed with Xiin as he seemed to throw the buste and resigned to the pessimistic view that all is lost. If I read his post correctly he seems to be saying that because of Hassan’s leadership, prospect of bringing this conflict to a close is not possible.

 

This conflict was here before Hassan become president and it may remain unresolved long after he leaves. A lot of folks thought Hassan came in at opportune time and he is different from the ones who came before him but no one expected him to be the savior that ends the conflict.

 

That being the case, it is NOT a naivety to support the only way forward. And the only way forward happen to be convening full reconciliation for all concerned at the dirrin. The peace caravan led the way and Xiin was their loudest supporter. I am making the case that he stay put and keep the faith in the face of defeat and disappointment.

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LANDER   

In 2006 and 2007 in the face of an ethiopian invasion and the loss of thousands of somali lives, the so-called 'peace caravan' was in full swing according to the starter of this thread and others in this forum. In Somalia's darkest hour (No Ethiopian army had ever in history invaded a somali capital) these same folks would have us believe that the only way forward for somali 'unity' was for all somalis to 'join' the best hope for a settled peace agreement which according to them was represented by that 'dove' and great uniter of people named Abdulahi Yusuf. A rational human being would ask if these people are insane, but hey that's all in the past. Fast forward a few years and the biggest threat to peace is no longer an ethiopian invasion but a terrorist group. That group is on the run and almost completely whipped out, the capital has returned to some form of peace for the first time since the short lived period of the ICU and unparalleled growth in local business and real estate development has begun. Logically speaking, this might actually present a great opportunity for uniting people and spreading peace and some form of central governance. But, the 'peace-caravaners' no better so hold that thought, you see they don't like the man in charge at the moment and no matter what the situation on the ground, only 'peace-caravaners' decide when and where the country should unite. You should all hide your faces in shame and despair for Somalia, the 'peace-caravan' has been destroyed, all is lost.

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Oodweyne   

Baashi,

 

Orientalism of the Chinese kind, heh? Man, I must somehow start practicing some communal wisdom in which my Chinese waiter could teach me; particularly, in most night when he brings my take-away to my home. :D

 

But, in all seriousness, I think what you say may be what you wish for. But, according to the read of the folks of capital they consider this game to be as over as last year Super-bowl championship.

 

Hence you could say they are wrong on so many levels. But from their point of view, so long as the international community agrees that the fate of Somalia “hinges” on the stabilization of their territory, then from their point of view they can see the finishing line in sight.

 

Or at least they do not think you have any “obstacle” to which to put it before them. After all Uncle Sam have accepted that "stable Somalia" is equal to a "peaceful Mogadishu", regardless of what is happening to the rest of the country. Hence the equation that has started the whole tragedy of Somalia's civil-war seemed to have been reduced to shoring up Hassan Sheikh’s government, so that he can in then win his fight against the likes of Al-Shabaab.

 

Furthermore, not only that but those powers-that-be, seemed to have recognised that such a government of Somalia also speak for whole of Somalia; regardless of how divided Somalis are on this precise point. Consequently, it seems to me that they have decided (i.e., "powers-that-be"), that when every other issues in regards to Somalis was and is still up in the air, the best thing to do is to “confer” a legitimacy to a government that can’t even control it’s capital; much less of anything else.

 

Hence internally this fight might be is still not yet finished; but externally the fate of Somalia has been “consigned” to the hands of one faction or one “protagonist” in the Somali civil war.

 

All in all; my advise to you will be to say, that it’s best to prepare to a have internal friends within the folks of Mogadishu, particularly in the preparation for the 2016 fight. So that way, just like our friend Gabbal (and his ilka-yar’s kins) you will be insider within the “Pashtun-of-Somalia”.

 

Instead of being a “street-corner-heckler” of the kind Farole is fast becoming, given the fact, that heckler may win the gaze of any passerby, but he shan’t be invited in to tent so that he can “break” bread of gentlemanly deal with other power-brokers.

 

********

PS

 

Lander,

 

Bro, it's best to strip these guys one post at the time. So that way, we keep feeding them some rope (in the form of one post per time), and they in turn will keep showing us the fallacy of their argument by the post. Or at the very least, they will keep showing us their progressively naked bodies, as we go along in tandem.. :D :D

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Baashi   

Oodweyne,

That's it...improve your Mandarin and Cantonese :)

 

Huh! Mogadishu folks think the game is over and international community is on their side! Is that all you got buddy? You just made my point – unknowingly of course. Awoowe there are realities on the ground. Consider it in your argument when making one. Aight :)

 

Also Mogadishu our beloved capital city is in need of massive foreign troops. Factor that in your argument – it gives flavor when you keep it real. Furthermore, Hassan admin is toothless and its reach is limited to some parts of the city. That should be weighed against your empty and hollow calls of imminent defeat. Waryee sidii inna rag u kalaam. Golluhu waa gole rujaal waxaana fadhiya rag garta yaqaan

 

Lander,

 

That’s gibberish nonsense. Read it before you post your cantarabaqash. So you spare silent majority who read this boards the headache.

 

The peace caravan has always called for peaceful resolution to Somali conflict irrespective of who was in power or what foreign troop shored up what transitional entity.

 

The case was made and that case is still strong. Absent of decisive victory by one clan or a coalition of clans or entity over all other clans, Somalia will remain in this sad state. The only way to settle this is to have the contestants sit down and come up some sort of understanding, power-sharing scheme that satisfy all the involved parties. If you disagree with this view, go ahead and make a coherent argument against that call.

 

I would be first to admit that to call a grand reconciliation is easy but to execute it to the satisfaction of all sides and then to keep them focused on the ball and have them actually make progress is extremely hard. But then again you are not that bright or capable to pen a reasonable and coherent argument!

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Oodweyne and Lander,

 

Do not begrudge our friends from opening a cyber outpost of the famous 'Cafe Calaacal' right here on SOL ;)

 

Interestingly, many political actors from that neck of the woods have given up the 'dream' of the Mogadishu seat and opted for the 'less lofty' goal of challenging Faroole for the provincial seat. This is an indicator of the disappointed hopes of many a national aspirant.

 

I, however, unlike you, Oodweyne, remain a Faroole fan for his responsible stewardship of Puntland.... a stewardship that recognizes the natural limits of the regional administration! Faroole and sons have returned Puntland to its traditional 'sultanate' leadership over the larger sub-clan. No need for political parties when you've got the wise leadership of Faroole and sons... No need for one person-one vote when you've got the enlightened guidance of Faroole and sons...

 

Faroole and sons for another term!

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