Who is the Somali big brother?

[Carafaat]

Every family or people's have their fair share of fighting and argueing. But like in a families someone decide's to accept reality,listen, stand up, reach out and set the good example. Like an older brother does when fighting with his little brother. Like an older brother interveres and mediates,shows loyalty and puts his own issue and point of vieuw on the background for the greater good. So that balance is restored, deadlock is overcome, cycle is broken, order is restored and common good appears on the horizon again. Like with families also people's have their older brothers, they are the bridge, the linking pin, the example, the hidden leaders, the weiight restoring the balanc, taking the first step, compromising and holding everyone together. They are not the biggest, not the most visible, not the most liked, not the most wealthy, not the most popular. In Kenya you have the Swahillians, in Scandinavia the Norweigians, in Holland the frisian's, in the Uk the Wales, in Germany the Frankfurters, in Italy the Reminian's, in Spain the Zaragosans, in Somaliland ththe Awdalites, in Ethiopia the Gurage, in Eritrea the Afar's, in Tanzania's the coastal's, in Iraq the christians.

 

Now I wonder who is the older brother in the Somali family? Do we have one? Or we lost him a long time ago? Maybe he is there and hasnt yet acted? If so, when will he act, when will he stand up and show example? Maybe he is wounded, or jailed, maybe he give up on us, maybe he is afraid of us or worse we silced him?

 

 

Who is the big brother in the Somali family?

[Chimera]

^Good post, I'm a unionist but I don't believe in forced "unions", I say let those that want a different path, have the freedom to do so (this goes for the entire peninsula, not just Somaliland), there are to many commonalities between us that will always makes us gravitate to one another. In the mean-time Somalis should take the fear out of their enemies, lay low, develop their regions and cities with serious infrastructure projects, grow their regional economy and business clout and most importantly maintain stability through compromises.

 

Eventually, come 2030, we would be the most educated, and the most prosperous ethnic group in the region. I fear however that peace in the South will mean war in the North, due to the short-sightedness of the current political crop, and manipulation of neighbouring countries. A serious pact of non-agression should be signed within this year between the major Somali stake-holders.

[Ace of Spadez]

Chimera,

 

If you don't mind could you elaborate on this "peace in the South will mean war in the North"? Are you insinuating if Somalia become peacefully Somaliland will be in turmoil as a result? What would necessitate such a situation if you don't mind me asking? Would it even be practical considering the last government of the Somali Republic disintegrated due to its militaristic adventures in Somaliland.

[Chimera]

Ace of Spadez,

 

First, the North covers a wider territory than just Somaliland, including a vast swathe of land the latter claims but does not control. Secondly, its a stretch to claim "the Somali Republic disintegrated due to its militaristic adventures in Somaliland." The previous dictatorship accomplished its mission of purging out the SNM from the major cities in the North, despite the massive defections of Somali troops and pilots, so it was a practical solution to any opposition in his eyes.

 

However, opposition to his rule was a country wide phenomenon that involved multiple disgruntled entities besides the SNM. Indeed, exactly a year after the SNM was forced out of the major cities in the Northwest in June 1989, there was a meeting between the USC, SPM and SNM on June 1990 to establish a united front against the dictatorship.(Small arms in Somaliland pg 17) It was this alliance that proved to much for the Dictator to handle, and is this alliance that forced him out. The Somali Republic at the time was still very much an existing superstructure recognised by the SNM, albeit one with a vacuum, or should I say "black hole".

 

Now that we have settled that historic issue, we can focus on the present and the future. In a scenario where the current TFG - with its myriad of shady characters - succeeds in regaining the South from Al-Shabaab and establishes a competent government, it will be a game changer in the peninsula. For starters, without recognition Somaliland will always be considered a breakaway state while the government in the south will be considered the legitimate representation of Somalia, consisting of all its territories recognised by the international community. Such a government could make development and progress for Somaliland a serious difficulty by thwarting international investment. Such a government would have access to far greater monetary pots than Somaliland, with these funds it could employ "divide and rule" policies amongst the inhabitants of Somaliland at a far greater frequency and intensity than Somaliland could ever hoped to do so in reverse, we both know how these tactics employed by previous Somali governments seriously threatened the existence of established recognised countries like Kenya and Ethiopia (which lost Eritrea).

 

You ask what would necessitate such policies in the first place? Have any of the lame-duck transitional governments welcomed Somaliland's bid for recognition? No! Therefore if the paper governments did not, why would a government with actual legitimacy, stability and a well-equipped military go the other way and welcome unilateral seccesion in one of its claimed territories? It won't happen, and because of that, the pattern in Somali politics has always been "conflict". This form of conflict doesn't necessarily have to be government troops attacking cities in Somaliland, it could be in the form of the divide and rule tactics I mentioned above, or naval blockades of its ports.

 

While I recognise Somaliland's right for self-determination, I do not think in such a scenario where the government in the South grows in strength and Somaliland maintains its policy of non-negotiation that it will emerge victorious in such a conflict, because it does not have the same access to major funds that the government in the South will have access to. Movements like the SSC would suddenly have serious military hardware at their disposal, dormant groups within Somaliland would enjoy the same. All of this waste of funds and resources by the Mogadishu government to sabotage a breakaway state, and the latter's spending to withstand that sabotage is funds and resources that could have been better invested on building new roads and highways, better ports, thousands of new schools, hospitals and universities etc, etc.

 

Its because of this why I earlier said the major Somali stake-holders who truly wish a unified Somali family to materialise in the coming generations to sign a pact of non-aggression. Do Somali politicians have this type of foresight? I do not think so.

[xiinfaniin]

It is the norm in all around the world that the integrity of any nation is enforced by force; if any disgruntled group could be allowed to erect little statlets to satisfy its political ambitions, no nation would survive. So I am not big on this agreements good Chimera is insinuating here

[Chimera]

Xiin, I would burn the black flag, the red-green and white flag, the blue-white and green flag, and the one I most cherish; the blue field-white star flag if it would result in a single Somali civilian saved. Terms like nationhood, patriotism, and sovereignty have become meaningless in my eyes as of late. Agreements between Somalis that will save as many Somali civilians as possible are the way to go. All this old-man politics is nauseating, considering how the world is moving one and is embracing the new century with prosperity and development.

[xiinfaniin]

Chimera, the notion of small Somali 'countries' living in harmony, and with security and economic agreements in a region where 80-million land locked Ethiopians border them from the North and 40-million Kenyans from the South is contradicted by the hard rock geopolitical realities of the Horn of Africa region. The choices are very clear:either accept a weak, divided Somalis ever vanishing in the sphere of influence of Ethiopia or Kenya or sit tight and determinedly work for the return of the former Republic as a starting point to offer a balance of sort in a region where odds are stacked against our kind ....

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Xiinfanin you don't do that by supporting Clan states weak federal states or Semi autonomous regions the Puntland region will always undermine the central authority in Mogadisho if things don't go their way.

[xiinfaniin]

Xaaji Xunjuf,

 

As I wrote earlier, SSC construct is the only effective approach to the secessionist delusion, and you know it. Dadka qaarba si bay wax ku fahmaan, nimankiinaan 20 ka sano ku hayya dawlad baan nahay, tanaa laydinku dayayaa , of course when there is a reasonable government in Xamar different approaches will be adopted comprising stick and carrots to ensure you come to back to the fold. But at this time and in avoidance of bloody conflict, this is the best approach.

 

 

Oodweyne ,

 

Since 2003 you have been repeating this 'international reality' that favors your separatist agenda, and accordingly we've sort of accustomed your high talk and veneer of confidence with respect of your independence prospect. But facts are facts awoowe, and as far as we know Somaliland is not closer to recognition today than it was 2003. Same exact legal, security and political challenges remain in place. In fact the opposite can be argued, meaning political realities are beginning to hit home...

 

Tukihii haruubka qarkiisa isku taagay oo weelkii iyo biyihiiba rogay weeyee taadu, laakiin tab iyo xeel baan kuu heli ee qolkaa xunkaa iigu xirnow

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Xiinfanin ssc was formed in 2009 some where in Kenya more than half of the guys who started ssc are now in hargeysa that tells you how effective the whole ssc is. The problem with you guys is xiinfanin you always talk about when and if's its 2012 Somalia is more divided than it was in 1991. Somaliland and its institutions and army are stronger than they were in the 90s think about it time is ticking and time is favoring my cause:D

[Chimera]

Oodweyne,

 

I'm no enemy of Somaliland, or any Somali group outside of Al-Shabaab, so what I wrote above was not an inner wish for the future, but a simple analysation of the usual pattern in the Somali political landscape; its history, present and with that came to conclusion of how the future will most likely unfold. You say the international community would come to Somaliland's defense as the government in the South seeks to establish rule over all its territories. We both know the international community has not offered recognition to Hargeisa in the current mess that is taking place in the south, why would it do so in a time period where there is no conflict in the south to contrast the peace in Somaliland? A legitimate government in Mogadishu could ally itself with major powers to deflect any of its domestic policies. This has been a successful policy employed by Meles Zenawi and in the past by his late mentor Siad Barre.

 

In such a scenario, the international community would close its eyes, as it has done the good part of the last century in every single continent. While you're partially correct that Somaliland enjoys institutions that have broken down in the south two decades ago, outside of this Somaliland has stagnated, it's not going backwards but at the same time its not going foreward either. Only a recognised Hargeisa administration could establish the relations necessary to progress as a country, and to access funds to spur serious development.

 

It's because of this lack of recognition that Hargeisa could never maintain its current two decades progress if it was locked in a long term "cold war" with the internationally recognised Mogadishu government. The latter would have access to billions, as the late dictatorship did. The type of military hardware the Mogadishu government could supply to entities within Somaliland are of a type the latter could never afford without appropriating vast chunks of its budget to arms. Any country trying to supply these arms to Hargeisa would be called out in the Security council by any of the "big friends" the Mogadishu government has alligned itself with. You would be surprised how fast those "friends" of Somaliland would disappear in such a situation.

 

My previous post was not a personal warning of "Hey landers, its unity or war", instead I was highlighting the Somali political character you most vividly described a few posts back, and why the political crop most likely will employ such a warning on the ground or on the political arena. I would not underestimate the ability of a competent Somali government to establish a strong military with an efficient navy, indeed the prewar navy was one of the best in the region, and there is not a single entity in the peninsula today that could compare with the power of those disintergrated naval forces that patrolled 1 million sq km of water, that includes Somaliland.

 

Nor could Somaliland withstand a military thrust that brought the Ethiopian empire to its knees in the 77' war, and it had a bigger army and superior military hardware than Somaliland has today. Are you 100% sure one of Somaliland's friends would intervene to push a recognised government out of its own recognised territory? Let's be honest, the only two powers that are capable of this are the Americans(Kuwait) and Russsians(Ethiopia/Georgia), but what makes you think the Mogadishu government has not already established incentives for them to close their eyes?

 

While everything I say are just words, to just dismiss them as a "theological seminar" is simplistic, and is based on the idea that the South will remain in conflict for this entire century. That's highly unlikely, which is why I said to prevent future war facilitated by those that thrive in it, the major stakeholders that do not want more instability - or create a situation where a permanent rift in the Somali psyche is established - should take the initiative and make sure the question of Somaliland will always remain one of "dialogue", through a pact of non-aggression. The dictatorship was brought down through dialogue between major Somali stake-holders, and therefore Somaliland for its own stability will need to involve itself, rather than exclude itself during discussion about the fate of Somalia.

[Chimera]

Oodweyne,

 

If you don't want to discuss, that fine with me, just say so. However, none of your attempts at attacking or dismissing my arguments with elegant verbal acrobatics will in any shape or form change the logic that is evident in my previous posts. It might not be the type of logic you wish to hear, or I wish to materialise, its logical reasoning in action nonetheless. I would advice you to study the lead up to the O.gaden War. I would also advice you to study the Biafra War, and why today there is no country on the international map called the "Republic of Biafra".

[xiinfaniin]

The problem is with Chimera to think Oodweyne is a reasonable man!

 

Oodweyne, and to a large degree the separatist ilk is akin to dizzied bird in the sense that they don't know which logic to base their argument on. If they were to say that the resolve of our independence bid stems from the resolve and determination of our people, Chimera's water tight analysis would have a field day on such an argument not to mention the SSC reality on the ground would've made a mockery on the notion that a unified and cohesive political support across the board exist for the separatist ideology. On the other hand, if the separatist were to argue that international community are in cahoots with their project, twenty years of indifference at best and out right rejection at worst clearly contradicts that argument. That is why Oodweyne's position in writing more grammar than truth full of palpable contradictions is the most effective counter argument in defense of today's separatist polity.

 

Of course Chimera's analysis however painful and intrusive it is to the separatist ears is the most probable outcome of this long Somali civil war. Somalia in the form of former republic is more attractive to the international community than it will be in the form of warring factions ever disputing this land or that . Which means International community will have no second thoughts on supporting a legitimate government in Mogadishu that ensures regional security (tackles piracy, terrorism etc)...

 

The test is Oodweyne cannot tell you what is it that Hargeysa will offer to attract the full attention of the powers that be over Somalia proper

[Carafaat]

Oodweyne;773207 wrote:

Carafaat

,

 

I am sure there is no one; least of all, there is no

"cohesive"

Somali Family, in the manner you have set up your stall of an argument. However, what exist, I believe is Somali Culture, idiom, and customs, which in turn, if sufficiently tended to, in time, can create something resembling a

"family"

in a obligation sense; which in turn, could take the place of where the missing Somali family could be, few generation down the line...

 

You see, I am sure you are not looking for anthropological lecture in Somali patriarchal associations (least of all you probably know as good as the next man), but, the independence of the Somali Republic in

1960

, wasn't just a new independence beginning for Somalis. But, it was also (at least indirectly) the moment, this sort of nurturing the disparate Somali atomized dia-paying groupings was meant to be put through a process that is akin to a

"nuclear fusion"

. Whereby, in time, the layers of the different groupings will melt, under the benign legal government, till, even the core of each self-contained groupings give away to the

"amalgamated larger core"

, in few generation down the line.

 

However, the first impediment of that process ever starting in the ground was the how the division of power was handle, particularly the first few days of the new Republic in

July

of

1960

. And, the second, almost impossible to surmount obstacle, was, the

"clannish competition"

for the state resources, in which our pastoral democracy (

with it's almost 80 or so competing parties

) let loose on the society, between the years of

1960 to 1969

. Hence, those, two early wounds, effectively, arrested that natural process, that in time, could of created seemingly unforced Somali family out of crooked and clan-obsessed Somali timber. And, of course, the time scale we are talking about in here is in several generations hence..

 

However, the last dearth knell that have killed the whole hoped for amalgamation of Somalis into a what in several generations down the line could of come across as almost naturally collective and cohesive family (which is when the benign and the unforced

"fusion process"

takes it's time-consuming course) did occur during the late dictatorship period. Which was a period, that has essentially return Somalis in to their state of nature, in which a larger sentiment of any kind, other than

"Zero-Sum-Survival"

was put to back-burner. Hence, the accelerating process of the centripetal process (that was tearing apart the Somalis, emotionally) that has even redid the original baby-step amalgamation that was inaugurated in

1960

. Consequently, now is not the time to speak of

"Somali family"

, but, to preserve the disorientated and wounded members in their recuperating period that is now.

 

Subsequently, after some period of reflection and tranquility was had by all who call themselves, at least culturally Somalis, then, at that time, the natural process of

"fusion-ism"

can began, afresh. First gingerly, by incentivising the process itself, in the sense of allowing a gradual knitting of society's various groupings (through trade and culture), given, that it's most likely, that the members that shall form the "Somali Family" are by then, and most definitely living under a different sovereign entities, be they Somalia, Djibouti, as well as Somaliland...

 

This is the only way for Somalis to start a natural process of societal fusion, that is unforced, culturally aware, historically mindful of the pass, yet unafraid to try to imagine a different outcome than the one they have been living with it for some time now. And, lastly, has the potential to be game-changer of the horn-of-Africa...

 

But, it requires grit, courage, vision, broad-mindedness, magnanimity, and above all else, sense of destiny and mission tempered with humility of knowing how far we have fallen, and how easy a messianic rubble-rousing with slogans, that is of

"war and liberation"

for the occupied land, could easily turn into a cul-de-sac, for Somalis as whole.

 

In other words, this is a task of generations. Hence, the question is, Are Somalis up to it? Well, I have a tremendous doubt and a sneaking suspicion, in parallel. And, by that I mean, doubt of course, because, it's the nature of Somali character that one do happens to doubt extremely; particularly, their fickleness and their sense of not knowing the difference between what is ephemeral and what is long-lasting.

 

And, in-terms of the sneaking suspicion, I do believe, that, if Somalis give a chance to Somaliland, in the sense of agreeing that time has come for Somalis to be magnanimous to each other, and therefore, start allowing Somaliland to have it's space and time to

"recuperate"

from the tragedy she has been through, through her own legal state; then, I believe that less than a decade, she will come back roaring into a her old self of having the largest heart of feeling and deep sense of

"brotherly obligation"

in any Somali peninsula. And, she will frenziedly go into over-drive in colecting what could be collecting into a larger Somali family, make equitable rooms for all (even, if she does it by creating and nurturing a state for Somalia itself, in her bosom) as well as become an untiring advocates for those who are under occupation now...

 

Hence, there is all to gain, and nothing to loose, in that larger sense for the would-be Somali family that you have talked about it; provided, every one understand that there is no short-cut to our salvation; and it's Somaliland where it will begin, if ever that is, that painted rosy scenario is written in the stars for the Somali Family.

 

And therefore, what is required at the moment is that collectively one must allow the one who is already ahead in the process of recovering that shocking experience of

1960 - 1991

, namely Somaliland, a freedom to maneuver; so that in time she will have the confidence to approach her sisters in the ditch and sees not as her enemies (which she currently does) but, her needed sisters, in whose their fate, however much they may disagree with each other, are intertwine till the ends of times...

 

This is in my opinion the only way for the hoped-for a

"cohesive Somali Family"

...

 

Regards,

Oodweyne.

 

********

 

PS

:- So sorry about the length of this post, for it couldn't be helped!..

 

Oodweyneh,

 

I agree with you there. But I think Somaliland has reached the phase that it has the complete freedom to manouver, that is has developed confidence and that people are less sensitive today about a diplomatic offensive then few years ago. Now is the right time to start the proces of dialoge. Why?

 

-Cause the public opinion is more determined by the young ones. 70% of the Somali population is younger then 30 years old. They have more confidence in Somaliland and have not know or seen something nothing, therefor dont question or doubt the existence of their country and goverment and know very little about Somalia. And also in Somalia its the young people who will determain its future and they have also a diffrent perception and know a diffrent reality and are quite diffrent from the older generations, who are more negative about Somaliland. Dont you remember how most Somali media, older journalist and public opinion from Somalia used to call Somaliland, "Gobolada Waqooyi Galbeed", "Dawlada isla magac baxday", etc. This was not so long ago and these were mainly the older generation and now the public opinion in Somalia is set by a younger generation that fully accept the excistence of Somaliland. Belief me, I travelled around in the Horn of Africa and I know the younger generation from Somalia very well, they understand what went wrong, they have their own perceptions, have seen another reality and are much more open minded to start with a fresh beginning. Things have changed in Somalia, just look at how the clan or generational relations and dominance has changed compared to the pass.

For example; who are those youngsters(most under 25years old) who work with Al Shabaab and have been controlling Somalia the last 4 years from Kismayo all the way to Dhusamareeb? or rally for political parties or do the implemention of goverment work in Somaliland, write daily news and opinion articles from around the world? they are not those who supported the old regime, nor the ones who fought for USC, SSDF and USC nor the ones who fought in clan wars.

 

We have a momentum here to start with a new chapter and we should grasp that momentum rather then endlessly chasing the past.

[Carafaat]

xiinfaniin;773538 wrote:

Xaaji Xunjuf,

 

As I wrote earlier, SSC construct is the only effective approach to the secessionist delusion, and you know it. Dadka qaarba si bay wax ku fahmaan, nimankiinaan 20 ka sano ku hayya dawlad baan nahay, tanaa laydinku dayayaa

, of course when there is a reasonable government in Xamar different approaches will be adopted comprising stick and carrots to ensure you come to back to the fold. But at this time and in avoidance of bloody conflict, this is the best approach.

 

 

Oodweyne ,

 

Since 2003 you have been repeating this 'international reality' that favors your separatist agenda, and accordingly we've sort of accustomed your high talk and veneer of confidence with respect of your independence prospect. But facts are facts awoowe, and as far as we know Somaliland is not closer to recognition today than it was 2003. Same exact legal, security and political challenges remain in place. In fact the opposite can be argued, meaning political realities are beginning to hit home...

 

Tukihii haruubka qarkiisa isku taagay oo weelkii iyo biyihiiba rogay weeyee taadu, laakiin tab iyo xeel baan kuu heli ee qolkaa xunkaa iigu xirnow

 

Xiin, then why support Puntland while you want a strong central goverment? And why oppose Hiil Qaran who exactly the same you want, a strong central goverment??