Premier Ali Geedi and President Abdillahi Yussuf may win the battle only to lose the

[Jamster]

The parliament of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia will meet soon to discuss President Abdillahi Yussuf and Premier Ali Geedi’s twin motions of deploying foreign troops in Somalia and temporarily stripping Mogadishu of its status as the national capital of Somalia. The troop deployment will include troops from Ethiopia as well as from other frontline IGAD countries. The temporary seat will probably be identified as Baidoa. There is a good chance that both motions will pass. But the emotions invoked by these issues have reached a level where, in my opinion, the losers will not fade quietly and the issues will not die quietly. Uncontrollable external forces may further complicate the situation. President Yussuf and Premier Geedi may win the battle only to lose the war.

 

Goodwill alone is not enough

 

On his presidential inauguration day, Abdillahi Yusuf declared his intention to seek the deployment of African troops in Somalia to bolster his government’s chances. It was a gutsy move and a right one for that matter. President Yussuf was aware of what came of those governments that attempted to stabilize warlord invested Mogadishu without ample forces behind them. Ali Mahdi, whose presidency became a casualty of those warlords, added his voice to those calling for the deployment of foreign troops in Somalia. Former president Abdiqassim Salad Hassan, who learned the hard way that goodwill alone is not enough to build a viable government, made a supportive and passionate call, on President Yussuf’s inauguration day, for warlords to be true to their oath under Allah and to abide by the agreements they signed in Nairobi. Some warlords, mostly based in Mogadishu, initially voiced their doubt of the necessity of foreign troops to bring back order in Somalia. Like many Somalis, they were of the opinion that, if warlords whose mutual hatred of each other were the cause of the instability in Mogadishu and else where in Southern Somalia, are now members of the parliament and of the cabinet, the government should encounter no more enemies to be protected from. It was not until the word came out that the IGAD frontline countries are sending troops to Somalia that these warlords got explicit support from many sectors of the Somali people. IGAD’s move was interpreted as thinly disguised ploy for the deployment of troops from Christian controlled Ethiopia in Muslim Somalia. Ethiopia is accused of playing a crucial part in the longevity of the Somali civil war by siding with certain clans, training snipers, and arming certain warlords in virtual violation of the U.N weapons embargo.

 

Between a rock and a hard place

 

Many Somalis, including the author of this essay, tried to get access to Premier Ali Geedi and President Abdillahi Yussuf to urge them to exclude troops from frontline countries from those identified for deployment in Somalia. A group of Somali intellectuals that included Professor Abdi Samatar and former Prime Minister Abdirizaq Hagi Hussein, at the end of their meeting in Nairobi, called for the exclusion of troops from frontline countries (Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya) in any troop deployment in Somalia. The Somali internet websites are replete with letters urging the government not to accept troops from frontline countries. The U.S government joined the call. Even members of Premier Geedi’s cabinet publicly warned against the deployment of troops from frontline countries, especially Ethiopia. Yet, President Abdillahi Yussuf and Premier Ali Geedi seemed to be unfazed by what amounts to a public outcry. Many Somalis are enraged by what they see as apparent arrogance. Others wondered what these leaders know that they could not share with the public.

 

A hint of that missing information was outlined by President Ismail Omer Geele in an interview with the Somali Service of the BBC. That interview provided a glimpse of the dilemma under which President Yussuf and Premier Geedi are. President Geele, who spent enormous energy and resources on the efforts to resolve the Somali conflict, can only be characterized as a well informed source. President Geele explained how the African Union has neither the will nor the resources to deploy troops in Somalia. He indicated that it was only the members of IGAD who were willing to respond positively to President Yussuf’s request for troop deployment. Furthermore, any country that deploys troops in Somalia should be willing to finance the operations of its troops. That is, there is no money coming from the African Union or from any other outside source and Somalia has no resources to pay for those services. One can, thus, understand how undiplomatic and ungrateful it would look if President Yussuf and Premier Geedi say “no, but thanks†to the IGAD offer. Or to say, we may accept troops from Eriteria, Uganda, and Sudan, but we do not want those from Kenya, Djibouti, and Ethiopia. Or even worse, to say “we can accept troops from any country other than Ethiopia.†Of course, this does not mean that they can not voice their concerns to their Ethiopian and other frontline countries counterparts in private. But to utter those words in public would be undiplomatic and would not bode well for future relationships.

 

Winning the battle only to lose the war

 

President Yussuf and Premier Geedi’s main short-term objective is to move to some where inside Somalia immediately. They are under pressure from almost everybody and especially from their host nation, Kenya. They are the putt of many jokes in the Kenyan media. Their median and long term objectives should, however, include the building of a viable Somali government. Deploying the troops from front line countries would make it possible for President Yussuf and Premier Geedi to go home. But the prospects for their medium and long-term objectives are murky, to say the least, and the main drawback would be the Ethiopian troops and all the ill will their presence will generate. I do not agree with the common arguments that Ethiopian troops would behave worse than other African troops. That there will be many instances of bad behaviors by those African troops is a given. African troops, like their own leaders, behave badly when they are in their own countries; and no one should expect them to behave any better when they are deployed in other countries. The problem, as I see it, is that the troops, especially those from Ethiopia, will serve as the instigation point for hard-line nationalists and religious groups who want to score points against the U.S and the Christian world. The U.S spy agencies are certainly aware of this point as indicated by their government’s latest stance on the troop deployment.

 

These groups will utilize the legitimate grievances of Somalis against a long line of Ethiopian regimes. Most historians and Somalis are aware of the past nationalist and religious wars between Muslim Somalis and Christian controlled Ethiopian regimes. Since 1415 when the Ethiopians broke the cordial non-aggression co-existence of Christians and Muslims in the Horn of Africa by killing the Imam of IFAT in Saad Ad Diin Island off the shores of Zeila in Awdal, Somalia, there were several religious wars between the Somalis and the Ethiopians. While those wars acquired a more nationalist form in the twentieth century, they were mostly religious and always had an international component. If there has to be a war between the two people in the new century, it can only be a religious war for Somalia as a state is no match for Ethiopia. The war against the Ethiopian troops will be fought in the name of Islam with fighters coming from the entire Muslim world. However, the battle will take place in the Somali and Ethiopian soil and the price will be paid by Somalis and Ethiopians. Some of the obvious victims of that war will be the TFG and its President and Premier.

 

The Solution

 

Few people can quarrel with the need for the deployment of neutral foreign troops in Somalia to help in the disarmament of rival militias. The foreign troops need not only act neutrally, they should also be perceived as neutral by all the factions. It is clear from the public outcry that, frontline troops will not be perceived as neutral. Worse, they will not be given the chance to prove their neutrality. They will be met with fire, from groups with peripheral motives, to which the troops will only respond in kind. The only solution is for IGAD to meet again, and instead of individual countries contributing both troops and financing, to ask each country to contribute funds to finance the deployment of a fairly large number, say 8,000, of Ugandan and Sudanese troops. The Somali people, and the armed militias, would in most likelihood give troops from these countries the chance to prove their neutrality. Neither of these two countries, Sudan and Uganda, was implicated in taking part in the Somali civil war, an attribute that none of the frontline countries can claim to have. Furthermore, if the Ethiopians, who are, rightly or wrongly, attributed to the success of Abdillahi Yussuf in the struggle for the presidency of Somalia, are true friends of Somalia and of President Yussuf and Premier Geedi, they would support this compromise. Any other move will only create more ill-will between the TFG and a large sector of the Somali people, and among the TFG itself. In that case, Premier Geedi and President Yussuf may win the battle but lose the ultimate war, which is to bring back governance, stability, and nationhood to the Somali people.

 

On the hopeful side, if Somalis and people interested in Somali affairs have learned any thing about Abdillahi Yussuf during the marathon Somali meeting in Nairobi, it is that no one should underestimate his tenacity, resourcefulness, and ability to succeed. His choice of a Premier, Professor Ali Geedi, is reputed to be an intelligent man with no political baggage. Certainly, this author and two other Somali professors and a doctor who had a meeting with the Premier in Dubai, in October 2004, were all very much impressed. He came out as an intelligent and educated man who would rather step down as Prime Minister than tolerate mediocre undertakings. Let us hope that they do not sacrifice their long-term objectives for short term gains. Let us hope that they do not concentrate on winning the battle while losing the war.

 

Prof. Hussein Ahmed Warsame

(UAE University and University of Calgary - Canada)

E-mail: hwarsame@uaeu.ac.ae