Shabbab take over central interior

[Armchair Politician]

It's official: Mukhtar Robow "Abu Mansoor" and his forces have taken over a vast swathe of territory stretching from the outskirts of Baidoa and Bur Hakaba all the way to the outskirts of Beletweyne and the town of Baledogle just outside of Wanla Weyn, and the much-trumpeted move to Mogadishu is looking increasingly like a retreat from Baidoa.

 

This combined with the endless simmering battle-that-never-ended in Mogadishu, and the equally vast swathe of territory adjacent to the Kenyan border that was effectively ceded to Hassan Turki earlier this year, makes it increasingly unlikely that the government will succeed in unifying the country.

 

The TFG got soft support at the end of 2006 for ending the UIC's increasingly broad grip on the country from a variety of tribal groups, but this support is double-edged as the same reasons they had for opposing the UIC is also fueling their opposition to TFG control.

 

The TFG is in danger of essentially repeating the situation of 1991, where the government controlled only the capital, and the entire rest of the country was in rebel hands.