The unintended consequence of Ethiopia’s invasion

[xiinfaniin]

The real xan, as Xiin sees it

 

It’s quite ironic! Ethiopia’s invasion, and subsequent occupation of Xamar has compromised her regional hegemony and strategic plans for Somalia. Or that’s at least what I am beginning to gather. How so you might ask!

 

Here’s how.

 

Yesterday, before Ethiopia invaded Somalia, majority of Somalia’s territories, save some regions in the south, were firmly, and conveniently, under her influence. Firm, because there was no alternative, reliable source that could seriously contend to provide the type of services she provided to her allies. Convenient, because she attained and maintained her valuable position on the cheap. Relatively, before her invasion in Xamar, Ethiopia didn’t have to do much to ensure the cooperation of Somali leaders. On the home front, most conflicts in her borders eluded global attention. UN agencies seemed reasonably content with her approach. Even emerging powers like China showed interest in pouring much needed investment to stimulate her sluggish economy. Simply put, Ethiopia was well positioned to manipulate and influence Somali conflicts without committing significant resources.

 

Today, after the invasion, Ethiopia seems to be losing influence, or too overwhelmed, too busy, to retain her status in important regions. Two loyal, obedient entities of hers are now at each other’s throat. She seems to be at wits end! Her very bold military move caused other countries to get involved in Somali affairs. She is no longer the only player on the ground. The outcry that resulted from the mass exodus of the Mogadishu population got many regional and global countries/agencies interested in the plight of her victims in particular, and in the tragic Somali conflict in general. Militarily she seems to be bogged down, and her threats are no longer credible. Her promises of speedy victory to her allies no longer seem believable. At the home front, the ****** insurgency grew bolder, and deadlier. Zenawi’s nakedness become quite apparent when his sole, and much lauded oil exploration initiative was aborted by ONLF’s spectacular attack on the site itself in which it succeeded to kill and abduct the Chinese crew itself! The response from the Chinese government was equally embarrassing: it determined that ****** is not safe enough to risk Chinese experts! China halted the project, and withdrew. Zenawi’s subsequent military operations only highlighted his desperation. The wrath his military unleashed on ****** civilians gained him the condemnation and censure of even his closest allies. Western media begun to report and expose Ethiopia’s desperate, outlandish tactics to reverse ONLF’s gains. In the meantime, the Mogadishu battles highlighted the magnitude of the Somali tragedy. America’s involvement seems to have morphed from a mere antiterrorism measure to a more of serious engagement with Somali parties. And in that front Ethiopia’s unique position as the sole guru on the Somali conflict is cracked.

 

The chief consequence of all of that is this: with Eritrea’s political involvement, and with Ethiopia’s failure to exacta conclusive defeat on Mogadishu insurgents, a solemn realization, from part of America, that the Somali conflict can no longer be contained as planned seems to be setting in. And if my read is right, that paradigm shift represents a grand setback to Ethiopia’s policy on Somalia. As ironic as it may sound, to save Ethiopia from a prolonged armed engagement with Somali insurgents, the Somali republic must be erected. And as much as Ethiopia hates the idea, and as things stand now, she has little choice but to work very hard toward it. For that’s the only way out of the mess it got itself in. Americans, Arabs, Africans, and the UN all seem to be saying the same thing.

 

If time becomes nice to this analysis, it will be THE unintended consequence.

 

But to alter the purposefully created political realities on Somalia’s civil war ravaged political landscape will require a much more shrewder approach. Perhaps the coder could be useful to untangle own code…

 

That much for a dream!

[Xudeedi]

Me thinks xiinfanin's anylitical framework of the unintended consequences of the invasion of Somalia's capital is tantamount to what Ethiopia's national policy towards Somalia states at par value but much credit goes to the World press in exposing the 'starvation and draconian intervention policies of Ethiopia in dampening its own "insurgency" who are in fact legal contestant and not mere law breakers.

http://www.mfa.gov.et/Foreign_Policy_And_Relation/Relations_With_Horn_Africa_Somalia.php