Political Memo: Birtukan’s Upcoming Political Challenges and Options

[Kamaavi]

 

Before the creation of the UDJ, she spent most of her time and energy trying to negotiate all the CUD factions, rather than creating a new party. But both camps have now become so rigid that neither appears willing to accept any compromise that would create a sound unity. The other choice she has, is to create a new path for her future engagement. This path does not necessarily have to have a political party in it. If Birtukan spends enough time to take care of herself and think thoroughly, there are multiple options that are fit for her profile and taste. So far, her silence and solitude shows that she is on the right track to crafting her own way.

 

When I heard of the release of Aung San Suu Kyi this past weekend, I was able to imagine what millions of Burmese were feeling. But I was not the only Ethiopian who could understand our Burmese brothers and sisters. The scene in front of Aung San Suu Kyi’s house was almost an exact copy of the scene in front of Birtukan’s house when she was released this October. The jubilation and pride vividly expressed on the faces of the supporters of these iconic leaders on two separate continents, is a testament that the desire and struggle for freedom knows no boundaries.

 

 

The similarity between the two women does not end there. The Burmese military junta’s calculations to release Aung San Suu Kyi seem to be a word-for-word copy of Meles Zenawi’s reasons for releasing Birtukan. After his ruling party “won” an election by 99 percent, Meles found Birtukan to be an unnecessary international nuisance. By the same calculation, the Burmese military released Aung San Suu Kyi; extending her house arrest after the party they supported won an election would just create more nuisance than pose a real threat to their power. By now, an unlearned revolutionary democrat might jump up, thinking his “comrade” has an influence in Burma. Even though Aung San Suu Kyi and Birtukan are now free, their political future is not as clear and simple as some might wish. They will face various challenges of their own. At least to my observation, Birtukan has the following political and personal challenges to face in the coming months.

 

Politics or No Politics

 

The Ethiopian Facebook community started becoming political the moment that Birtukan was arrested two years ago. Her supporters, and foreigners who knew her, began joining the “Free Birtukan Mideksa” Facebook group started by journalist Kassahun Addis. I still remember joking about the absurdity of this online activity with friends. Why do you start an open online dissident group in front of a dictator? Later on, many groups were formed around the freedom of Birtukan. This September, they organized an effective and well-publicized online campaign to keep Birtukan a topic of the international community and Ethiopians.

 

This time around, I do not plan to joke about Facebook, so when I received a message from the first “Free Birtukan Mideksa” group informing me that it had changed its name, I took note. It symbolized the central question that Birtukan faces today. Unlike Aung Suu Kyi, who went to her office the very next day after she was released, Birtukan has to decide whether to continue in politics or to drop out of politics and concentrate on her personal life. Her imprisonment was very painful, even by the standards of this tenacious “iron lady”.

 

The press release broadcast by government media right after her release says that her immediate interest is taking care of her ailing mother and her daughter. This has been the official line of the government about Birtukan’s future.

 

There is nothing Meles fears more than a citizen who is involved. Birtukan has been a symbol of his worst nightmare. When most of her law school friends chose to make money in the courts or join the mushrooming NGO industry, she took on the life of an opposition politician, with all the challenges that accompanied it. Her story is epic in its proportions. There are many who will truly understand her if she chooses not to continue in political life. Very few Ethiopian opposition leaders with her level of profile have traveled as far as she did.

But anyone who knows Birtukan – or any politician for that matter – can bet that she is taking her time. She is like a lioness that has smelled the blood of her prey. After all this pain, and all the publicity generated by it, she will not back out of political life – at least to the point that requires a pressure on her. I bet that the real pressure on her political future lies somewhere else.

 

Party or No Party?

 

The most painful thing for many of Birtukan’s supporters during her imprisonment was the drama surrounding her political role. She literally and single-handedly founded the Unity for Democracy and Justice Party (UDJ) out the ashes of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUD). Most of the original CUD founders abandoned the party in various fashions after 2007. Some retired from politics, some fled the country; some chose to start a new political party in the Diaspora and some went back to their original party. Birtukan, who joined the CUD belatedly, was left with ashes on her hands. With all her limitations, she collected the hatch poaches of what was left of the CUD and organized the UDJ, permitting many compromises and accommodations.

 

What she created was not perfect. But it successfully captured the aura of the CUD and the political scene. She fought hard to keep the many Diaspora offices from the new contender, Ginbot 7. She was successful in this endeavor, both in the United States and Europe. Even though her party was full of “old guards”, her presence and the fact that she was the first female political party leader in Ethiopian history brushed of all the sense of rusted sense the oldies, creating a mystique around this humble woman that brought thousands of young people to the meetings she called. The diplomatic community in Addis also found the new opposition darling that they had been missing since the 2005 election. Her party was constantly in turmoil; her leadership style was never the ironclad fist that most of the old guards were accustomed to, both in government and opposition politics. Yet she posed enough of a threat for Meles Zenawi to tremble in the shadow of her new popularity and put her back in jail way ahead of national elections.

 

Her party began to disintegrate on a daily basis after that. Professor Mesfin, the Ayatollah of Ethiopian right wing opposition politics, vehemently – and even, some say, childishly – started to oppose the UDJ’s majority decision to join the forum created by the former Ethiopian President, Negaso Gidada, and former Defense Minister Siye Abrha. He even went as far as starting a separate UDJ that claimed Birtukan as its leader.

 

The majority of the UDJ continued to work with the Medrek party. Yet, the internal squabble within the party was significant enough, derailing the struggle to get Birtukan released and preventing the issue of her incarceration from remaining on the front lines. It also served as another showcase for the EPRDF to boast to the international community that the opposition was not ready for a prime-time game in the political arena.

 

If Birtukan decides to pursue her political life, she will be forced to choose sides between these two parties that claim her as their leader. Choosing to lead any one of these parties has significant political and personal consequences for Birtukan’s political future.

 

To the Left or to the Right?

 

If Birtukan’s choice is to lead the faction led by Professor Mesfin, she might manage to keep the organizational structure of the UDJ in her hands. One of the reasons for the UDJ’s weak performance in the political scene was the loss of most of its operators to the faction led by Professor Mesfin. Even though the professor was defeated in the Executive Committee and the General Council, he was able to organize the youth within the party. Having Tamrat Tarekegn, the leader of the youth wing, in the party significantly helped bolster the professor in the inter-party squabble.

 

Tamrat Tarekegn was also a key player in organizing the regional offices for the UDJ and the CUD. A former military captain, Tamrat knows most of the grassroots activists of the party on a personal level. His loyalty to Birtukan and the opposition is unambiguous. His decision to stay on the opposition side, when Lidetu – his long-time personal friend – decided to compromise with the EPRDF, made him a legend among party organizers. But his most important asset is his willingness to play second-place in a political culture obsessed with being first. When he left the UDJ, he left with hundreds of phone numbers on his mobile phone. The oldies could not communicate or, in some cases, even find out who was in charge of some of the UDJ offices. He cut them off and let them left them hanging in mid-air.

 

The professor has managed to contact some of the supporters of the UDJ in the Diaspora – particularly those who still have misgivings about Siye and Negaso’s past participation in the EPRDF. But almost all of the significant donors and bundlers of the UDJ remain on the side that joined Medrek. This has made the professor’s side poorer in comparison.

 

Even if this alliance of the professor and the soldier is strong in organization, it is ideologically as old as one can imagine. They simply do not have a clear conception of the contemporary Ethiopian political dynamics. They still think of Ethiopia in its foremost classical unitary form. They act as if they never heard the vocabulary of “multi-cultural nation building”. For many people, Professors Mesfin’s decision to oppose Medrek is ideological rather than procedural (as he claims it to be). In all discussions, he forwards the idea that the UDJ has lost a great deal in the negotiation process by forming the manifesto of Medrek. Yet he simply avoided all the negotiations and consultations of the process in a classical Ethiopian fashion of derailing negotiations.

 

If Birtukan chooses to lead the group that joined Medrek will be primarily personal. Medrek is an amalgam of small-timers and big-time players like Siye. For most of her political life she has been a central actor. She ran independently in the 2000 election. Like any charismatic leader, she is used to the front seat. If she chooses the UDJ that joined Medrek, she will have to adopt the role of “second player” many times.

 

The ideological and traditional challenges are also eminent. She will be additionally compounded by a political agenda and manifesto that was crafted while she was in jail. Medrek has a serious document that can serve as a sound basis of new political discourse in the country. But it has a serious problem of salesmanship. Birtukan might be willing to play the role of good salesperson for the ideas of Medrek. But the question is, how can she sell ideas that were shaped and formed in her absence? She can easily understand the written concepts, but can she personalize the necessary compromises that created the document? If she was part of the debates and the juggling and lobbying process that produced the document, it would have been very easy for her; but the document is essentially foreign to her, as are most things that happened in the country during her forced absence.

 

To Negotiate or Create?

 

Birtukan remains a revered figure in both parties. Their personal commitment to her has increased following her arrest. Some could say that this is merely a calculated act of political utility, since her brand is extremely potent. She might choose to negotiate the factions and merge them into a single, unified organization. This will appeal to her non-violent approach to all things political. Before the creation of the UDJ, she spent most of her time and energy trying to negotiate all the CUD factions, rather than creating a new party. But both camps have now become so rigid that neither appears willing to accept any compromise that would create a sound unity. The other choice she has, is to create a new path for her future engagement. This path does not necessarily have to have a political party in it. If Birtukan spends enough time to take care of herself and think thoroughly, there are multiple options that are fit for her profile and taste. So far, her silence and solitude shows that she is on the right track to crafting her own way.

 

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