U.S. trying new approach in Somalia to fight insurgency

[xiinfaniin]

U.S. trying new approach in Somalia to fight insurgency

 

By John Vandiver

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

 

 

STUTTGART, Germany — In the coming months, the U.S. will begin direct engagement with leaders of two northern Somalia breakaway regions with the hope that those political ties can stem the radical insurgency that threatens to spread beyond the lawless parts of southern Somalia, according to State Department officials.

The effort marks a significant policy change toward Somalia, which has become a safe haven for the Islamic insurgent group al-Shabab, an al-Qaida-linked faction that has been battling the weak, U.S.-backed central government.

 

In the last two years, the U.S. has spent more than $200 million trying to bolster Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government. And while that support will continue, the U.S. also will engage with leaders in Somaliland and Puntland as it looks to build on those regions’ relative political and civil stability.

 

The U.S. will provide assistance that strengthens the regions and prevents them from being “pulled backward” by an al-Shabab incursion, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson told Stars and Stripes during a visit to U.S. Africa Command headquarters in Stuttgart last week.

 

“We want to encourage the TFG to be more than just a government in name only,” Carson said.

 

Working with groups in Somaliland and Puntland will help achieve “poles of stability that will create the kind of environment that will bring about more progress in dealing with radical extremism of Shabab,” Carson said.

 

Carson said the U.S. would not establish formal diplomatic relations with the two entities nor recognize their independence, but would help their governments with agriculture, water, health and education projects. By doing so, the U.S. hopes to shield these regions from the influence of al-Shabab, which seeks to impose its own harsh form of Sharia law across Somalia.

 

However, some Africa experts believe that the new approach is unlikely to quell any of the violence in the contested southern part of the country. It also is unlikely to spur reform within the country’s weak government.

 

“I’m not sure if investing more in the north helps secure the south ... or furthers the goal of a united Somalia,” said Richard Downie, an Africa policy analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But that goal is so far off right now as to be unobtainable, so the new focus I think is more on the short to medium term.”

 

The U.S.’s two-track approach is more a reflection of the incompetence of the TFG than a recipe for uniting Somalia, Downie said.

 

“It doesn’t make sense to have all the policy eggs in one basket,” he said.

 

Somaliland declared independence in 1991, and Puntland declared itself an autonomous state in 1998. While each has established its own political and law enforcement institutions, no other nation formally recognizes them.

 

But these territories could serve as bulwark against al-Shabab, according to Carson.

 

The decision to engage with other political elements in Somalia — other than the TFG — could signal a willingness for the Obama administration to adapt as the U.S. grapples for ways to contain the growing threat from groups like al-Shabab.

 

“I think it is a positive development, but like all policies, the devil is in the details,” said Ken Menkhaus, a leading Somalia scholar from Davidson College in North Carolina.

 

While U.S. development agencies and others in the international community have done work in Somaliland before, direct political engagement is something new. The challenge will be making sure that America’s involvement with Somali leaders outside the TFG doesn’t undermine efforts to build up a central government, according to Menkhaus.

 

“But if it’s done correctly, it reinforces the central government,” he said, adding that the policy shift will be unlikely to include a U.S. military component.

 

Support for the TFG remains the first priority, Carson said.

 

The African Union’s contingent of more than 7,000 troops, mainly drawn from Uganda, which protects the fragile TFG from being overrun by insurgents, will continue to receive U.S. backing, he said. Meanwhile, U.S. Africa Command continues to provide training and logistical support to deploying AU forces.

 

However, the Somali government needs to do more to bring together different factions in the country, according to Carson.

 

While there are no concrete initiatives yet, U.S. officials will begin to meet on a periodic basis with government officials from Somaliland and Puntland to discuss development issues, including health, education, agriculture, and water projects, to help ensure their capacity to govern and to deliver services to their people.

 

In addition, Carson said the U.S. will look to engage with smaller groups — clans and sub-clans — which deliver services to the population and oppose the ideology of Shabab, but are not aligned with the TFG.

 

For 20 years Somalia has been without a functioning government and during most of that time, the international community has been disengaged.

 

Ever since the deadly Battle of Mogadishu in 1991, which left 18 U.S. soldiers dead, the U.S. has had a largely hands-off policy toward Somalia. By 1992, all western troops pulled out of the country and diplomatic and development work was limited. However, during the past couple of years, that has been slowly changed as new threats have emerged.

 

“We’ve seen this localized cancer become a regional cancer,” said Carson. “We also see outflows of small arms across the border, feeding criminality and lawlessness.”

 

And with the influx of foreign fighters who are taking up arms alongside al-Shabab, including some Americans of Somali descent, the cancer has “metastasized” into a global malignancy, Carson said.

 

The long-term goal of one Somalia operating under something that resembles a democracy is a long way off, Carson acknowledged.

 

“It is first stability,” he said. “Second, it is to help create the conditions and environment to end the recurring cycle of humanitarian disaster and create an environment where development can take root.”

 

But while Carson will not say it, the TFG is probably not the political entity to bring that about, Downie said.

 

The decision to work with other political groups is a sign that the U.S. is getting more pragmatic in its approach, broadening what has so far been a narrow strategy, he said.

 

“It reflects the fact that the TFG is probably a doomed project,” Downie said.

 

vandiverj@estripes.osd.mil

[Amistad]

Hmmmmmm, U.S. boots on the ground in Somalia?

 

this is very interesting !! They are going to employ the three D`s approach, Defense, Diplomacy, Development..... they would need boots on the ground to accomplish that, wether its through USAID or Africom.

[Peace Action]

I wonder why the US the world's remaining superpower has no clue and no strategy in dealing with failed states like Somalia. This approach should have been adapted a long time ago and it will have succeeded but sadly it is too little too late unless a sustained comprehensive approach is taken to nurture peaceful areas in Somalia to show violent areas there is a better way.

[Gabbal]

Nothing changed and will change on the ground. Why would someone put emphasis on the northern provinces for southern problem? US has a specific American educated man in mind that they want to see ascend to the presidency of the Republic come next "election". This is just part of breaking the post-Embagathi usurpation of the two highest posts of the Republic by reer Puntland and reer Warmahan. Such a legitimization has already occurred with the naming of Farmaajo, whose clan appointment was dictated by the State Department.

[Somalina]

Warmahan? reer Mogadishu is just fine thank you.

[Che -Guevara]

As much as I wanna see the expansion of Somalia's political space so other tribes have fair access to power, there's nothing good that comes out of American-led project.

[Gabbal]

Originally posted by NinaNC:

Warmahan? reer Mogadishu is just fine thank you.

Warmahan, iyo Warsheikh iyo Cadalle, degmooyin barakaysan oo keydka Alle mutaystay. Tollow goormaa mar labaad laygu sow dhawayn sidaan dadkaan jeclaa shaaxa la cabo.

[Somalina]

ticket soo gooso, waa la gaarey saacadaas hadda.

 

Soomalida haddeysan rabin iney ka tashadan arrimahooda, dee waa in loo taliyaa. It goes without saying soo ma aha. AS waxaa looga talinooya buuraha Asia, marka dawlada iyo gobolada calanka taagteyna banaanka ha looga taliyo. Sidan ayay ku soconee, ilaa aan anagu diidno faragelinta ajnabigu uu kula jiro arrimaheena.

[General Duke]

The US policy is most welcome, and the largest Somali American community will welcome this change and work as a bridge between our two countries. More educational institutes, vital infrustructure and influance is never a bad thing.

 

Puntland State and those who love the State welcome this new approach.

[NASSIR]

Originally posted by Gabbal:

Nothing changed and will change on the ground. Why would someone put emphasis on the northern provinces for southern problem? US has a specific American educated man in mind that they want to see ascend to the presidency of the Republic come next "election". This is just part of breaking the post-Embagathi usurpation of the two highest posts of the Republic by reer Puntland and reer Warmahan. Such a legitimization has already occurred with the naming of Farmaajo, whose clan appointment was dictated by the State Department.

Well said, Gabbal.

[NASSIR]

Clan Wars Complicate Terrorism Fight in Puntland - VOA

 

The United States says it is planning to boost ties with Somalia's two autonomous regions - Somaliland and Puntland - in an effort to restore stability in the south and to curb the spread of Islamic extremism.  Some analysts say the move, however, may end up increasing violence and instability in Puntland.

[General Duke]

It may increase violence and inStability but it may help with development and economic progress.

 

The US is on the right track. Regardless of those who wishfully thi k this is about a Man or a clan. No this is about the success if the Northern states and Puntland wins big because of it's Unionist stance.

 

In the key areas of Health & Education the states young Ministers under Faroole have made great strides and it's great that their hard work is being recognized.

 

Again Puntland survived for 12 years on it's own merit, the support of the worlds only super power can make it even more succesful and secure.

[Amistad]

Originally posted by Peace Action:

I wonder why the US the world's remaining superpower has no clue and no strategy in dealing with failed states like Somalia. This approach should have been adapted a long time ago and it will have succeeded but sadly it is too little too late unless a sustained comprehensive approach is taken to nurture peaceful areas in Somalia to show violent areas there is a better way.

Sad, but so true. The example list of past failures is so long it is staggering and while Dukes optimism and cheer leading is heartening and somewhat amusing at best, the cold hard reality is there still is no defined policy or long term strategy. Their current strategy, reduce violent extremism & piracy and employ and enhance social and civic programs and engage diplomatically on some limited levels is to broad stroke and not refined enough.... at least not yet anyway.

 

One of DoS`s biggest problems is they only listen to themselves (their PHDs who have never been to Somalia) in their old fashioned top down approach. One of the best things they could do to start would be to begin gathering area experts, local expertise, influentials, clan & sub-clan leaders, police chiefs on down the ladder & completely ignore upper echelon politicians to start, and gather these folks opinions on whats happening around them, in all areas.

 

Compile all that data and you get a pretty clear understanding of where you need to be begin and what to do.

 

I just dont see DoS doing that, please advise if they, do I would be shocked.

[General Duke]

AMISTAD, this is just a start, the whole Mogadishu based policy was flawed and for the first time its being addressed and an alternative is in place. It’s up to the growing Somali American population to work harder and help steer their government action towards the old country.

 

Its a good beginning, Puntland's positive contribution to stability has been rightly noticed by the great power, the rest will be history.

[Amistad]

It is a very good beginning dont get me wrong there Duke but without some very astute thinking on DoS`s part, something they have not exhibited in the past, it will not work. Good intentions do not pave the road to success, only intelligent thinking will and we have seen where the US`s good intentions have got us so far, even or especially in Somalia.

 

I would like to see some organized and educated Somalia diaspora hammering DoS`s door and waking them up in this regard, saying "Hey, here we are, let us help you"! Check their reaction, if they decline an offer of help (?)...well there ya go, business as usual for them. You see when they fail, they do not lose their jobs, no suspension of pay or loss of benefits...nada.

 

But when their policies fail, Somalis pay with their lives. Lets see if they are once again ready & willing to risk how many Somalis lives. Simply throwing a bone of building some schools and roads through USAID programs, is not going to do the trick. Lets just say some folks are skeptical.