RAND's 270 page study of 89 insurgencies

[Amistad]

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG965/

[Kashafa]

A few questions, por favor:

Modern insurgencies last approximately ten years, and the government’s chances of winning may increase slightly over time.

- How did Vietnam work out for you ? Did the insurgency collapse in 10 years ? Did the 'gummint' win ? Or was this the defining picture of imperialism's last gasp in Indochina(forget not, Dien Bien Phu and the defeat of the Frog-eaters)

 

It was Tuesday, April 29, 1975. Rumors about the final evacuation of Saigon had been rife for weeks, with thousands of people - American civilians, Vietnamese citizens and third-country nationals - being loaded on transport planes at Tan Son Nhut air base, to be flown to United States bases on Guam, Okinawa and elsewhere. Everybody knew that the city was surrounded by the North Vietnamese, and that it was

only a matter of time before they would take it

Source

 

I forgot that this was and remains a sore spot. My bad, yo.

 

Also: Castro in Cuba, who starting off with just 12 men took on and defeated the American puppet-'gummint'. No external support or state-sponsorship whatsoever.(Soviet help would only arrive long after he secured the country and formed a goverment).

[Amistad]

I dont find their stats to be accurate. To many insurgencies that have lasted well over 100 years disprove their findings, but being the respected institution that Rand is, it will wind up bearing some weight somewhere.

[Cara.]

Boys, an insurgency that lasts for 10 years can mean the insurgency WON

 

In the qualitative phase, we developed a simple taxonomy of endings: government wins, insurgents win, mixed, and still ongoing. Every insurgency was assigned to one of the four outcomes based on our assessment.

In 28 cases, the government won. In 26 cases, we judge the insurgents to have prevailed. In 19 cases, we view the outcome as mixed in that neither side achieved all it wanted. Sixteen insurgencies have yet to conclude.

At any rate, don't jump on the insurgency bandwagon. The only listing for Somalia is that the insurgency lasted 1980-1991 and the outcome was a decisive win for the insurgents. How's that working out for us?

[Somalina]

I hope someone has an answer..