4.5 Formula

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Salaan...

 

Soomaaliya will soon--perhaps within weeks if what is coming out Mbagathi is to believed at all--have a government based a 19th century mindset. A government based purely on artificial qabiil ideology; an idea well-intentioned perhaps, and which might have worked a hundred years ago. Not anymore, especially at this critical interdependent world of ours.

 

This exact qabiil-based formula--as widely known by Soomaalis today--was first initiated in last Soomaali peace conference in Carta, Jabuuti. And it instantly became a popular solution for all, a fact that can only work for Soomaaliya’s gripped problem. Not!

 

It first looks great and simple. Just agreeing a power-sharing, clan-based 4.5 formula. Four so-called "majors" erupted, and the rest being unarmed, peace-loving Soomaalis were crammed into a "minority" half-point status. Ironic as it may seem that by counting the "minority" clans together, their final toll number is anything but "minority," and surely more than the established so-called "majority" each clan.

 

However, the formula has its critics. The adversaries are many and wide ranged, but within exception of few, most happen to be in four groups:

 

• Qabiilists. By their unscientific calculation, their large common clan is most populous clan in Soomaaliya or "own" the largest land share of the country, and thus there is no way they can share with other alleged "majority" clans with same seats.
• Sub-clan supporters. Their sub-clans had missed seats, and unless they receive some proper seats or equal seats in respect to other sub-clans they wouldn't be satisfied. Also in this group are the sub-sub-sub-clan advocates.
• "Minority" clans. Their grievances are attributed to, first, they object, calling them 'minority' is an insult; secondly, some discriminated clans that used to belong the "majority" clans had been put on their list; thirdly, they received .5 of the pie, a half-point that can't be fair if counted altogether in census. They would receive anything but "minority" status, they alleged.
• Nationalists. The silent, protesting in murmur of all groups; after the disbelief and head-shaking that a qabiil-based government would function at all, their thoughts abruptly turn to worrying about what lies ahead.

The last group is what prompted me to start this thread. I belong this group myself. And the question I am asking now is: Why do we seem to be silent? Is it because government-for-government's-sake? Can we do anything in this time, before things get out of hand and worse?

 

I know there are few nationalists remaining, but those few of us need our voices to be heard, and very, very loud. What lies ahead would nail the last hope of Soomaali unity’s coffin, a nationalist’s nightmare.

 

The formula might work in short-term, gaining some admiration for the qabiilists, and the few absent-minded, power-hungry foxes that are "building" a government in Nairobi might or might not know that this would surely be the disintegration of the last Soomaali unity.

 

Soomaaliyeey Ilaah aa idiin maqan.

[Saxardiid]

I agree most of what you said about 4.5 but situation in Somalia -especially its peace talks- became some thing of a nightmare. I think most Somalis belief that any agreement is good one. Most "minority" tribes live very serious situation in Somali. They experience daily killing, rape, their land stolen and so forth. I belief first thing first freeing them from captivity is the priority, then we can talk equal representation in the forth coming national parliament. Where have the so-called nationalist been for the last 14 years during which these tribes experienced all sorts of violence.

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Tribalism is what put us behind Macruuf. Let us see if the same "tribalism" can take us out of the ditch this time. I see it as an experiment, but I have my doubts.

[Baashi]

I would add the Islamists to the list MMA posted up there.

 

One of the political puzzles is the fact that every clan has exaggerated notion of its relative political importance. It is very difficult to tell this or that clan that they are not that important or they should settle with less. It won't sit well with them especially when you are seen as ina hebel from the other side of the divide. You would think they'd focus the system of governence itself rather than current participants...sorry not with this group.

 

I don't know nomads I am optimists by nature but I have my doubts with this political process. Let's be patient and wait and see...

 

“What is to be said a physician,†Rousseau once asked, in his book of 'on social contract', “who promises miracles, and whose art consists entirely of exhorting his sick patients to practice patienceâ€. I guess he is talking about moi

 

Ducada Aamiin dhaha: Allahayow sidii roon, Allahayow sidii roon, Allahayow sidii roon yaan kaa bariney.

[sahal]

I'm very optimism that this confrence (4.5) will fail, since its success means catstrophe for all our hope to build a civilized nation and it's failure means that the hope stil remains.

[Sincere]

I happened to come across this article ,and i think this guy hit the nail on the head regarding this issue.This was written in 2000 during the djibouti conference, its 2004 and yet another conference!!! If your going down the same path, and acheiving no results then you need to choose another path

 

--------------------------------------------------

 

NEED FOR A TECHNOCRATIC GOVERNMENT

 

Dr. Hassan Ali Mirre

 

 

In a previous presentation the thesis was forcefully advanced that Somali

political crisis was primarily due to the sheer incompetence of our

political leaders. While this viewpoint hardly received any attention at the

conference judging from the contents of its proceedings developments, there are

inadvertently giving solid confirmation to the validity of this conclusion.

 

After several months of discussion, argumentation and consultation, the

delegates have adopted the distribution of parliamentary seats on clan basis

– a development that has instantly opened up a Pandora’s box which is already

blocking the progress of the conference and may even exert far-reaching

consequences on its success or failure.

 

It is important to direct closer scrutiny to certain vital aspects

strategically related to the endeavor to find adequate solution for this knotty problem.

 

THE CLAN AS A GUIDE. The CLAN is a false idol that has mesmerized our minds

for centuries and has enslaved our thinking and our existence. The Somali

society derives no perceptible benefit or any constructive contribution from our

submission to its guidance. It has indeed diverted us from following the

steps of the human caravan on the correct road of economic, social and political

progress toward a cull-de-sac where internecine conflict and sterile warfare

dictate the pace of life and continuously swallow up the meager energies and

scarce resources of our masses.

 

As such, the Clan does not deserve to be viewed or adopted as a strategic

guide to our political decisions and thinking. We Somalis are fortunate in

possessing most of the requisite qualities and preconditions for nationhood-common

language, history, culture, sense of belonging etc.-albeit sorely lacking

the vision to grasp, recognize and act on the value of this shared heritage.

 

To resort to clan as a useful political instrument is, as I see it, a grave

mistake that will not only produce dangerous consequences but will surely

exert negative repurcussins on our national life for many years to come.

 

2. RESURRECTION OF A SOMALI GOVERNMENT.

 

There is no doubt that SOMALIA desperately needs to rebuild its political

institutions – Government and parliament – so as to regain its lost status

as a sovereign state. At this stage the relevant question that calls for closer

analysis and consideration is: what kind of government? A jerry-built

government composed of the remnants of the military Dictatorship that has enslaved

Somali people and deprived them of their fundamental rights and freedoms for a

period of 21 years? Or the warlords and their collaborators who have committed

massacres and other atrocities during the past decade?

 

These forces – remnants of the dictatorial era and the warlords and their

collaborators – are united by one objective: to block the selection of

qualified, competent and conscientious individuals to head the new

government.

The reasons are: 1) They are gripped by inordinate fear that they might be

brought to trial before a court of law for the crimes they have committed

and the resources they have plundered during their tenure of high governmental

offices; and 2) they equally fear the impact from the visible achievements

of such a government could exert on popular consciousness and perception in

comparison with their incompetence and lack of patriotism.

 

A widespread viewpoint, presented as a political maxim, maintains that “a

bad government is better than no governmentâ€. This is obviously more of a glib

utterance than a nugget of political wisdom. “A bad government†not only

produces “no government†but inexorably leads to anarchy and all its

attendant barbarities. In this context, one may rightly ask: why be satisfied with

anything less than a good government?

 

Now, a golden opportunity presents itself to the conference participants to

rise above mundane and inglorious concern with personal gain by 1) showing due

appreciation of the historic role they are called upon to play; and 2) by

concentrating their thoughts and their constructive energies on how best to

establish a government that could save the country from its mindless drift

toward extinction.

 

3. One thing is quite plain. The country does not need any recycling of

those who have used dictatorial and barbaric power to destroy the country and

massacre its helpless population. If such a thing happens, we would easily relapse

into bitter clan conflict and warfare more barbaric and destructive than the

conflicts of the last decade.

 

I would like to say a word to the Somali citizen whether at home or abroad.

Your indifference to the fate and suffering of the helpless masses represents a

direct support to the political wolves conspiring to reestablish dictatorial

rule in Somalia. They know their interests and objectives and they are

determined to realize them at the Djibouti conference. Can disorganized

people defend themselves? The answer is obviously negative.

 

I hope that the international community would show greater interest in the

Somali case than they have done so far. We believe there are dangerous

developments under way to repackage supporters and collaborators of

warlords and dictatorial regime as born again democrats willing and able to

scrupulously respect constitutional and democratic form of government.

 

In particular, I wish to urge such Human Rights Organizations as Bay Centre

for Conflict Prevention, Amnesty International and Africa Watch to stay alert to

the political background of candidates for the highest offices of any proposed

Somali Government.

[Waaq]

I am in agreement with MMA that any clan-based solution is unacceptable. It will only codify a false social institution that is by its very nature fluid. Lebanon has such a constitution both on religious and tribal basis, but is not tested.

 

However, there are more issues under the surface. What type of government is best for Somalia? While I agree with the article with respect to a government populated with professionals chosen on the basis of their skills rather than their clans, I do not agree with having an overly strong central or federal government. The future of Somalia will be based on the success of private initative supported by public security and stability. We cannot tolerate a corrupt government. While corruption exists in all governments to some degree, we must change the conception of government in the minds of Somalis. If it is viewed as a means to server ones own interests, then we are doomed. I believe the only way to combat this is through structural mechanisms that reduce opportunities for large scale corruption. If these principles of minimalist government focused on providing stability and security, as well as fostering basic services then we can mitigate the effects of a clan-based constitution.