AS Analysis: Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU – The promise unfulfilled and the stakes of President Abdillahi’s visit to Addis Abeba

[Deeq A.]

 

AS Analysis: Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU – The promise unfulfilled and the stakes of President Abdillahi’s visit to Addis Abeba

Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi landed in Addis Abeba-FM-Gedion-welcomed-him

Addis Abeba – Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi landed in Addis Abeba today for his first official visit to Ethiopia since he was elected in November 2024. Somaliland National TV said the visit comes following an “official invitation” from Addis Abeba.

The visit is expected to include talks with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on bilateral relations, regional cooperation, and deeper Ethiopia-Somaliland ties.

President Abdirahman’s visit comes against the backdrop of the fading into the news cycle oblivion of the January 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, which to date has delivered little beyond headlines.

The MoU was heralded at the time as a transformative agreement – granting Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s coast in exchange for Ethiopia’s (implicit or eventual) recognition of Somaliland’s de facto statehood.

In practice, however, the MoU has remained largely dormant: no substantive changes on the ground, no formal recognition, and no clear mechanisms to operationalize the port or naval access. Addis Standard’s continuous coverage has documented how the deal has become emblematic: more a diplomatic signal than a binding transformation.

Why has delivery stalled? First, the MoU lacked clarity on legal ratification and enforceability. Legal experts were quick to point out that it was signed as a memorandum of understanding, not a treaty, and the text has never been made fully public, leaving interpretation and implementation contingent on political will.

Second, regional and domestic pushback has constrained momentum. Somalia immediately rejected the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, invoking the principle of uti possidetis juris and arguing that Somaliland is an integral part of Somali territory.

Egypt and the Arab League also publicly criticized the agreement, warning of Red Sea destabilization if a landlocked state attempts to establish naval presence. In Somaliland itself, dissent emerged: the region’s then defense minister resigned in protest, declaring “Ethiopia remains our number one enemy” over the MoU’s terms.

In an interview in December this year, former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi admitted that mounting pressure from the African Union (AU), Arab League, and “major international partners” led to the collapse of the MoU.

Speaking in an interview with the Somaliland Chronicle, Bihi claimed both sides had been “poised to transform the MoU into a full-fledged agreement” before the process was halted by coordinated regional and international opposition. “The African Union and the Arab League opposed the deal, and even major powers such as the United States were alarmed,” he said. “Ethiopia was stopped by Africa’s collective voice. At one point, there was even discussion of relocating the AU headquarters if Addis Abeba refused to withdraw.”

Third, shifting regional dynamics and diplomatic realignments, especially Ethiopia’s reconciliation with Somalia via the Ankara Declaration, and its indecisive push back against a barrage of global diplomatic backlash against the MoU, have diluted incentives to press forward unilaterally.

Several experts have also warned the rift threatened to unravel security cooperation against al-Shabaab. Soon, both Addis Abeba and Mogadishu agreed to restore diplomatic channels and renegotiate contentious issues. This was a confirmation that the MoU has been overshadowed by the necessity to mend ties with Somalia.

Given this history, what can be reasonably expected from President Abdillahi’s visit? There is a widespread expectation that at minimum, the visit offers an opportunity to reenergize stalled momentum.

Somaliland-president-reception-by-ethiopia-FM-Gedion

In an op-ed piece for Addis Standard, Gulaid Yusuf Idaan recently cautioned that without clear legal instruments and binding mechanisms, rhetoric alone will not suffice. He stressed that Ethiopia must convert the MoU’s symbolism into actionable treaties or implementing protocols, else the agreement risks remaining a diplomatic relic.

Nonetheless, the visit must navigate serious constraints. Mogadishu remains wary, and any overt steps toward naval basing or recognition risk reigniting tensions. In a recent interview with Al Arabiya, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has called on Red Sea-bordering nations to pursue dialogue and cooperation while upholding sovereignty and avoiding actions that could fuel regional conflict. But the President also asserted the importance of “peaceful engagement and respect for territorial integrity” in managing tensions around the Red Sea. “No nation should infringe on another’s sovereignty,” he said.

Ethiopia, already juggling a multipolar foreign policy and internal crises, will still have to manage pressure from Egypt, the Arab League, and Somalia. Moreover, Somaliland’s own internal politics, including opposition from voices that see the MoU as sacrificing sovereign integrity, pose hurdles to smooth implementation.

Strategic inflection 

In the midst of this, President Abdirahman’s visit may offer a crucial window: not a guarantee, but a strategic inflection point.

“If Addis and Hargeisa can agree on tangible road maps, such as a binding agreement, port infrastructure commitments, security guarantees, and legal frameworks, the MoU might finally shift from dormant pact to functioning alliance”, said a closer observer of the Horn of Africa in a comment to Addis Standard. Otherwise, the visit may relegate the MoU to another chapter in symbolic diplomacy. “The onus lies on both sides to turn this moment into operational reality, lest the aspirations of 2024 fade into the annals of unmet promise.”

Horn of Africa analyst Rashid Abdi, Research Director at Sahan Research, told Addis Standard that President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro’s visit to Ethiopia marks “a significant diplomatic moment” after months of speculation about strained ties between Hargeisa and Addis Abeba.

“It comes over 10 months since he was elected, and the delay fed unhelpful speculations of frictions between Hargeisa and Addis,” Rashid noted. “Now that Irro has made his much-anticipated trip, both sides have an opportunity to dispel anxieties of poor relations, resume strategic dialogue, enhance cooperation, and address whatever differences or misunderstandings that may exist in a sincere and frank way.”

According to him, the visit could pave the way for a reset in bilateral relations. “A reset of bilateral ties is what both sides would be hoping for, and I think this is achievable,” he said, emphasizing that Ethiopia remains Somaliland’s key regional ally. “I am confident both sides will capitalize on this moment to improve prospects and deepen their strategic partnership.”

Rashid added that President Irro will likely seek “a re-affirmation of the strategic partnership and renewed commitment by Ethiopia to strengthen its security, trade, and economic relations with Somaliland,” pointing out that the port of Berbera will be a “key agenda item of special interest to Hargeisa.” AS

Source Addis Standard

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