The methodical victory: How Firdhiye won the presidency

[Deeq A.]

LAS ANOD, Somalia — In a region scarred by recent conflict, the rise of Abdikadir Ahmed Aw-Ali, better known as Firdhiye, to the presidency of the newly formed North East Federal Member State was no accident. It was a textbook case of strategy triumphing over status.

Once dismissed as a temporary figurehead for SSC-Khatumo, Firdhiye stunned seasoned politicians by executing a carefully crafted plan. His victory rested on four pillars: a federal alliance, a bold reimagining of the electoral map, mastery of the vote’s venue, and a resource machine his rivals couldn’t match.

Alliance with Mogadishu

Firdhiye’s first masterstroke was winning the backing of the Federal Government of Somalia. Knowing his administration lacked recognition, he aligned himself early with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, while other regional leaders kept their distance.

The move paid off. In return for loyalty, Firdhiye was ushered into the national fold. He secured a seat at the National Consultative Council, joined the president’s party, and was recognized as a legitimate head of state. That federal endorsement gave him what his rivals lacked: cover, credibility, and resources.

While others campaigned as purely regional players, Firdhiye positioned himself as the bridge between the North East and Mogadishu — turning what once looked like weakness into his greatest strength.

Expanding the battlefield 

While his opponents fought over the traditional bases of Sool and Cayn, Firdhiye rewrote the playbook. He shifted attention to Sanaag, a region often overlooked politically but vital numerically.

His shrewdest move was appointing Abdirashid Yusuf Jibril, also known as “Abwaan,” from Sanaag as his deputy. Abwaan quietly built the ground game — managing delegate selection and organizing with precision.

Rivals underestimated both Abwaan’s influence and the weight of the Sanaag vote. By the time ballots were cast, it was clear the presidency had been secured not in Sool or Cayn, but in the region they had ignored.

Owning the election hall

The presidential vote took place at Jidbaale Hall in Las Anod — a space that Firdhiye’s camp turned into a weapon. They understood that indirect elections are won not just with numbers, but with presence.

Inside the hall, his supporters set the tone. Delegates loyal to him moved freely, his messaging dominated, and the air buzzed with a sense of inevitability. Opponents, meanwhile, were distracted by managing their own security.

By controlling the physical environment where decisions were made, Firdhiye’s team applied subtle but decisive psychological pressure — stacking the process in their favor.

Promises and resources

In the end, resources proved decisive. Backed by Mogadishu, Firdhiye’s campaign had more money, more organization, and more institutional muscle.

That advantage translated into incentives. Lawmakers were courted with diplomatic passports, higher allowances, and hints of future federal appointments. Even neutral delegates were promised roles in the new regional government.

While rivals leaned on personal networks and local fundraising, Firdhiye built a coalition with federal leverage — ensuring the math lined up when it mattered most.

Firdhiye did not stumble into power. He won because he out-planned everyone else. By forging a federal alliance, redrawing the political landscape, mastering the electoral arena, and deploying resources with precision, he secured a methodical — and historic — victory.