Somalia opposition splits as new parties take shape

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia —Somalia’s political opposition is splintering as senior leaders move to form new parties ahead of the country’s first planned direct local elections, deepening rifts within the main opposition coalition and reshaping the contest against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Political sources told Caasimada Online that former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, former South West regional president Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, and former parliamentary speaker Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdurrahman are preparing to announce the launch of major new political parties beginning this week.

The three men, each a veteran of Somali politics, are expected to compete in the municipal polls scheduled for October in Mogadishu — elections that, if held, would mark a step toward universal suffrage after decades of indirect, clan-based power-sharing.

Their departure from the Salvation Forum, opposition coalition underscores the divisions hampering efforts to mount a united challenge to Mohamud’s government.

“These leaders see greater opportunity in going their own way,” said a Mogadishu-based analyst, noting that the move could “further fragment the opposition at a critical time.”

Parallel bloc pushes for unity

In contrast, another camp of influential opposition leaders is seeking to consolidate. Former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, ex-prime ministers Hassan Ali Khaire and Mohamed Hussein Roble, and lawmaker Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame met last week to discuss restructuring the coalition and forming a new “alliance of candidates.”

They aim to pool resources and unify messaging against Mohamud’s ruling faction, which they accuse of monopolizing power and undermining consensus.

The meeting followed the collapse of talks earlier this year between the opposition and the president over electoral reform. Opposition leaders walked away, accusing Mohamud of sidelining rivals in pursuit of his agenda.

The turmoil coincides with a surprise move by Somalia’s Independent Electoral Commission, which this week reopened registration for political associations. The commission said the extension would allow newly emerging parties to register in time for the October polls formally.

Analysts said the decision could reshape the playing field. “This offers an opening for new actors,” said Abdullahi Sheikh, a political commentator in Mogadishu. “But it also adds uncertainty, as the number of competing groups continues to multiply.”

Long road to direct elections

Since the state’s collapse in 1991, Somalia has relied on an indirect electoral system in which clan elders select delegates who, in turn, elect lawmakers and the president. President Mohamud, re-elected in 2022, has championed a transition to “one person, one vote” elections, but the path has been fraught.

Previous attempts to hold direct polls faltered amid insecurity, disputes between federal and regional authorities, and weak institutions. A limited experiment was held in 2021 in Puntland, but nationwide implementation has remained elusive.

For many Somalis, the October municipal elections are seen as a test case for whether direct voting is feasible in a country still battling Al-Shabaab insurgents and struggling to build trust in state institutions.

Profiles of the breakaway leaders

• Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, son of former president Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, has served twice as Somalia’s prime minister and is regarded as a seasoned diplomat with ties to Western governments.
• Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, once speaker of parliament and later president of South West State, is known as a shrewd political operator with deep clan networks.
• Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdurrahman, who served as parliamentary speaker between 2018 and 2022, is remembered for his role in contentious debates over security and constitutional reform.

Their combined experience could make their parties serious contenders, though their split risks weakening the broader opposition camp.

Political risks and security challenges

The fragmentation comes at a time of mounting pressure on the government. Mohamud has pledged to deliver both political reform and a decisive offensive against Al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda–linked insurgent group that continues to stage deadly attacks in Mogadishu and beyond.

Meanwhile, relations between the federal government and regional states remain tense. Leaders in Puntland and Jubaland have resisted aspects of Mohamud’s electoral agenda, warning that hasty reforms could destabilize fragile power-sharing arrangements.

International partners — including the United Nations, the African Union, and Western donors — have urged Somali leaders to build consensus around reforms and avoid repeating the crises that delayed the 2021–2022 elections.

For ordinary Somalis, the political maneuvering adds to a sense of uncertainty. Many residents of Mogadishu express frustration that elite rivalries overshadow urgent priorities such as security, jobs, and public services.

“Every time elections come, leaders argue among themselves while people suffer,” said Abdifatah Mohamed, a shopkeeper in Bakara Market. “We want to vote, but we also want peace and stability.”