Talks between Somalia’s president, opposition collapse

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – High-stakes political negotiations in Somalia have collapsed, with a major opposition coalition declaring the talks a “failure” and warning the nation stands at a “dangerous crossroads” that threatens its unity and the very existence of the state.

The breakdown in dialogue between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the Somali Salvation Forum, a group of influential opposition politicians, deepens a constitutional crisis that has fractured the country’s fragile political landscape.

In a sharply worded two-page statement issued Thursday, the opposition forum announced that five rounds of talks held over the past month and a half had failed to produce any result. The group accused the president of refusing to abandon controversial constitutional amendments that key political actors have rejected.

“It is unfortunate that after five negotiation meetings… no result was reached to save the country and the people from the conflict,” the statement read. “The Forum sees the country as being at a dangerous crossroads that threatens the unity of the country and the existence of the Somali state.”

The opposition’s primary demand is the complete reversal of constitutional changes passed earlier this year and a return to the 2012 provisional constitution, which established Somalia as a parliamentary federal republic.

A contested constitution

At the heart of the dispute are sweeping constitutional changes championed by President Mohamud and ratified by the federal parliament in March.

The amendments fundamentally alter Somalia’s governance structure by introducing a presidential system, granting the president the power to appoint and dismiss the prime minister without parliamentary approval, and extending presidential and state-level term limits from four to five years.

The government has promoted the changes as a necessary step towards stability and a long-promised transition to universal suffrage, or “one person, one vote,” elections, moving away from the complex clan-based power-sharing model that has dominated Somali politics for decades.

However, critics and opposition figures argue the amendments were rushed through without broad political consensus, dangerously centralizing power in the executive.

The Somali Salvation Forum’s statement claims the changes betrayed the “political agreement that was the basis of the Third Republic,” a reference to foundational pacts like the 2000 Carta Agreement, which re-established a central government based on a parliamentary system.

A fractured federation

The constitutional crisis has already created deep fissures in the nation’s federal structure. Puntland, a powerful and semi-autonomous member state in the northeast, has ceased to recognize the federal government and its institutions until the amendments are rescinded.

In a statement released in April, Puntland’s government accused Mogadishu of introducing “almost a new constitution” without consultation. It said it would operate independently until the dispute is resolved through a national referendum.

Jubaland, another significant member state, has also expressed its opposition, leaving the federal government at odds with key regional authorities. The opposition forum has called for the government to bring Puntland and Jubaland back into a national dialogue.

“If a large chunk of the country is missing in this process, we are simply building a constitution for south-central Somalia,” Afyare A. Elmi, a research professor at the City University of Mogadishu, noted in a recent analysis.

Calls for de-escalation  

With just nine months remaining in President Mohamud’s current term, the opposition is demanding an urgent agreement on a path to direct elections that is “inclusive and agreed upon.”

Beyond the constitutional rollback, the forum’s statement laid out several other key demands:

• An immediate end to what it termed government-fueled “conflict… especially in the Gedo region.” Recent reports from organizations like PeaceRep and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs confirm escalating clashes and displacement in Gedo, a region historically contested between federal and Jubaland authorities.
• A halt to presidential actions concerning public land, which the opposition claims have “caused instability.”

The political infighting comes as government forces, supported by local militias and international partners, continue a complicated and costly war against the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab insurgency.

The opposition warned that the political crisis serves only to distract from this critical fight and benefits “the enemies of Somalia and terrorists first and foremost.”

Despite the collapse of the formal talks, the Somali Salvation Forum stated that its negotiating committee would continue its work, signaling it remains open to further dialogue to “save the country.” The president’s office has not yet publicly responded to the opposition’s statement.