Somali PM Hamza Abdi Barre faces no-confidence motion

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre is facing a significant political challenge as a group of parliamentarians organizes a no-confidence motion against his government, threatening to plunge the Horn of Africa nation into a new bout of instability amid its critical war against Al-Shabaab insurgents.

The motion, which organizers say is backed by a substantial number of lawmakers, is reportedly being prepared in Nairobi, Kenya, and is scheduled to be presented to the parliament in Mogadishu on August 23.

The move represents the most serious threat to Prime Minister Barre’s tenure since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed him in June 2022. His government has, until now, enjoyed a rare period of political calm, allowing it to focus on a major military offensive against the Al-Qaeda-linked militants.

Motion gathers signatures

A key proponent of the motion, Member of Parliament Abdiladif Muse Nur, known as Sanyare, announced that the effort has gained significant traction.

“The motion to withdraw confidence from the government of Hamza Abdi Barre… has been signed by 120 members of parliament,” Sanyare, who represents the North Galkayo region, stated. He indicated that organizers were seeking just 20 more signatures to secure a majority.

Somalia’s Lower House of Parliament, the House of the People (Golaha Shacabka), has 275 members. A simple majority of 138 votes is required to pass a no-confidence motion and dissolve the government. If the organizers’ numbers are accurate, they are close to reaching this critical threshold.

Allies of the Prime Minister have forcefully pushed back, dismissing the motion as a baseless plot orchestrated by a small faction and asserting that the government maintains overwhelming support within parliament.

Mohamed Abdi Hayir, the Minister of Agriculture and a sitting MP, rejected the legitimacy of the challenge. “The government of Prime Minister Hamza has the support of 90% of the members of parliament,” he declared. “It will be impossible to bring it down with an imported motion flown in on a plane!”

The Minister of Ports and Marine Transport, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, a close ally of the Prime Minister, echoed this sentiment. He downplayed the threat, claiming a handful of individuals drove it.

“The ‘Dan-Qaran’ government is not one that the noise of four people will dismantle,” said Minister Nur, using the official name for the administration, which translates to “National Interest.”

He challenged the dissenters to stop their campaign on social media and present their case formally. “Why did you take your noise to Facebook and X? A motion is not tabled on social media,” he added.

A test for political stability

The political showdown comes after more than three years of relative executive stability, a rarity in Somalia’s turbulent political landscape. Historically, disagreements between presidents and prime ministers have often paralyzed the government and been resolved through disruptive no-confidence votes.

Prime Minister Barre has become one of Somalia’s longest-serving prime ministers in the post-transition era, a fact largely attributed to the strong political alliance he shares with President Mohamud. This unity has been crucial for prosecuting the war against Al-Shabaab, which has been the government’s central focus.

Analysts fear that a return to political infighting could critically undermine the military campaign. A prolonged power struggle in Mogadishu could divert political attention, financial resources, and security focus away from the frontlines, potentially allowing Al-Shabaab to regroup and reclaim territory.

The international community, which provides significant funding and support for Somali security forces, has long warned that political stability is a prerequisite for defeating the insurgency.

The coming weeks will be a crucial test of the government’s cohesion and support in parliament. The outcome of the proposed motion on August 23 will have profound implications not only for the leadership in Mogadishu but for the future of Somalia’s security and stability.