Ethiopia renews Red Sea access threat to Somalia

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – Ethiopia’s ruling party has ominously renewed its aggressive push for sea access, declaring its quest for a Red Sea port a non-negotiable “historical right” while vowing to eliminate any internal forces it deems “treasonous.”

The belligerent statements, issued on Friday, signal a dangerous escalation in Addis Ababa’s expansionist policy, which directly threatens the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.

Following a three-day party congress, the Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed issued a declaration loaded with threatening rhetoric, confirming fears that Ethiopia intends to follow through on its illegal January 2024 MoU with the secessionist Somaliland region.

The illegal MoU with Somaliland

The current crisis was ignited on January 1, 2024, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a secret Memorandum of Understanding with Muse Bihi Abdi, former leader of the breakaway Somaliland region in northern Somalia. The illegal deal granted landlocked Ethiopia a 50-year lease on 20 kilometers of Somali coastline to build a naval base and commercial port.

In exchange for this blatant violation of Somali sovereignty, Ethiopia offered shares in its national airline and, most alarmingly, implied it would move towards formally recognizing Somaliland as an independent state—an act that would dismantle Somalia and destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.

The reaction from the Federal Republic of Somalia was swift, unified, and resolute. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud galvanized the nation with a powerful address to parliament, declaring that the MoU was “null and void” and an act of “blatant aggression.”

“Not an inch of Somalia’s land, sea, or air can be compromised,” President Mohamud asserted, a sentiment that was echoed by Somalis across the country and in the diaspora. The Somali cabinet immediately recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa and passed a law nullifying the illegal agreement, making it clear that any attempt to implement it would be considered an act of war.

A wave of international support bolstered Mogadishu’s firm stance. The Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the African Union, and the European Union all released statements reaffirming their unwavering support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Key regional powers, particularly Egypt, strongly condemned Ethiopia’s actions, recognizing the MoU as a reckless move that threatened regional stability.

A pretext for aggression

It is in this context that the latest statements from Ethiopia must be understood. “We have successfully managed to make Ethiopia’s natural and historical right to sea access a global agenda,” the party’s statement declared, adding it had gone “further than the first chapter in our bid to restore Ethiopia’s geostrategic interests on the Red Sea.”

This language is a clear and present danger to Somalia, reaffirming Ethiopia’s intent to seize coastal territory in defiance of international law and Somali sovereignty.

While facing significant internal turmoil, Addis Ababa is attempting to project strength by creating pretexts for conflict. The ruling party’s statement alleges that “historical enemies” and “traitorous extremists” are working to destabilize the country, a familiar justification used to launch military actions.

“The desire for war by our enemies has not ceased,” the statement reads, claiming, “their chance to weaken Ethiopia is shrinking.”

This narrative paints a picture of a regime besieged from all sides, a posture that often precedes external aggression to rally domestic support. The statement identified six strategies allegedly used by its adversaries, including economic sabotage and exploiting governance gaps, laying the groundwork to justify a forceful response against any perceived opponent.

Observers note these threats are aimed at armed groups like the Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLF-Shene). However, for Somalia, this aggressive stance and vow to “eliminate obstacles” serve as a chilling reminder of Ethiopia’s willingness to use force to achieve its strategic objectives.

Adding to the regional volatility, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has accused Abiy Ahmed’s federal government of failing to implement the Pretoria peace agreement, warning of a worsening humanitarian crisis in the northern region.

In a briefing on August 8, TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael said the federal government’s failures were leading to the displacement and death of Tigrayans and accused it of being “unwilling to return the invaded Tigrayan territories.”

This internal conflict highlights the deep fractures within Ethiopia, making its leadership dangerously unpredictable. Significantly, Debretsion echoed his own region’s desire for access, stating it is “unthinkable for Tigray to be surrounded or closed off 360 degrees by anyone.” This further complicates the security landscape, suggesting multiple actors in Ethiopia could be seeking to break their isolation through force.

For Somalia, the message from Addis Ababa is unmistakable: a volatile and internally conflicted regime is doubling down on its illegal claim to our coast, creating a direct threat to our national security that cannot be ignored.