Somalia advances universal suffrage amid political rifts

[Deeq A.]

JOWHAR, Somalia – The president of Somalia’s HirShabelle state launched a voter registration drive on Sunday, marking a tangible step in the conflict-ridden nation’s ambitious and contentious push toward its first direct elections in over half a century.

In a ceremony in Jowhar, the state capital, President Ali Gudlawe Hussein was the first to register, as hundreds of residents lined up to have their details recorded by the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC). The move is part of a federally-backed plan to replace the country’s entrenched clan-based power-sharing system with a “one person, one vote” model.

“The Somali people and the community of Hirshabelle today have the best opportunity,” Gudlawe announced to the crowd after registering. “I am happy to stand up for my citizenship rights today.”

The launch in HirShabelle, a federal member state located north of the capital, Mogadishu, follows similar registration kick-offs in Galmudug and the Southwest states. It signals a coordinated effort by allies of the central government to build momentum for universal suffrage ahead of local and, eventually, national polls.

A statement from the HirShabelle presidency noted that citizens were eager to participate. “The people want to have their say through the ballot box,” it read.

A historic shift from clan politics

The voter registration drive represents a potential turning point for Somalia’s political landscape, which an indirect electoral model has governed for decades. Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, power has been distributed through the “4.5 clan formula.”

This intricate system, designed as a temporary measure to quell the civil war, allocates parliamentary seats and government positions to Somalia’s four prominent clan families, with a smaller share (the “0.5”) reserved for a coalition of minority clans. While credited with providing a framework for stability, critics argue that the system is undemocratic, entrenches clan divisions, and fuels political corruption.

The planned “qof iyo cod” (one person, one vote) elections would be the first of their kind since 1969, before the military coup that brought Siad Barre to power and plunged the nation into decades of authoritarian rule and subsequent anarchy.

The move toward direct voting is a cornerstone of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration. However, the initiative is far from universally accepted among Somalia’s powerful federal member states.

The most notable opposition comes from Puntland, the country’s oldest semi-autonomous state. In March 2024, Puntland’s leadership announced it was withdrawing its recognition of federal institutions, accusing President Mohamud of violating the provisional constitution in his push for electoral and constitutional changes.

While Puntland itself has experimented with direct local elections, its leaders have expressed deep distrust of the federal government’s process, underscoring the profound political fragmentation that complicates any national project. The success of the “one person, one vote” system will largely depend on the federal government’s ability to achieve a broad-based consensus among all states.

Security and logistical hurdles

Beyond the political discord, organizers face monumental security and logistical challenges. The al-Qaeda-linked insurgency, Al-Shabaab, remains a potent threat across much of the country. The group actively seeks to overthrow the internationally-backed government. It has historically targeted and threatened to disrupt any electoral process.

Ensuring the safety of registration centers and future polling stations, particularly in rural areas where Al-Shabaab holds sway, will be a critical test for Somali security forces and their international partners.

The National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC), tasked with orchestrating this historic vote, faces the immense task of registering a population that includes millions of internally displaced persons and nomadic communities, many of whom lack formal identification.

While the images of citizens lining up in Jowhar provide a symbol of hope for a more democratic future, the path to a nationwide “one person, one vote” election is fraught with obstacles. Overcoming deep-seated political divisions and the persistent threat of extremist violence will be paramount if Somalia is to transition away from its clan-based past successfully.