Puntland’s gamble fails as a key lawmaker defects

[Deeq A.]

GAROWE, Somalia – In a dramatic and decisive political counter-move, the lawmaker at the heart of a brewing constitutional crisis in northern Somalia has pre-empted the Puntland government’s strategy by resigning from its parliament.

Abdirashid Yusuf Jibril announced his resignation Sunday from Las Anod, delivering what can only be described as a masterstroke of political strategy. His decision immediately renders Puntland’s accusations of treason against him irrelevant.

However, it’s more than just a personal stance — it marks a dangerous escalation in the broader territorial dispute, shifting the conflict from an internal legal matter to an open confrontation between two rival visions of statehood.

The high-stakes gamble by Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni has now clearly backfired, empowering his adversaries and pushing the region closer to the brink of open conflict.

A calculated counter-move

At the heart of Jibril’s strategy was his ability to flip the script. Just days earlier, Puntland’s leadership thought it held the upper hand. The Attorney General had sent a formal letter seeking to strip Jibril of parliamentary immunity — accusing him of treason, military mobilization, and inciting civil war. The message was clear: paint him as a dangerous actor out to destabilize the state.

But Jibril’s resignation turned the entire strategy on its head. By stepping down voluntarily, he made it legally impossible to strip him of immunity. The Attorney General’s letter instantly lost all legal weight — it became a dead document.

Just as crucially, Jibril redefined his image. He wasn’t a rogue lawmaker betraying the state — he was a patriot answering a higher political calling: the struggle to build a new one. And the setting of his announcement carried heavy symbolism.

Las Anod, the city at the heart of the 2023 conflict that saw Somaliland forces expelled, has become a rallying point for the SSC-Khaatumo movement. By choosing that city, Jibril signaled loud and clear that his allegiance lies not with the established order in Garowe but with the self-determination movement rising in the contested territories.

Jibril’s move doesn’t just protect him from legal retaliation — it pushes the conflict into new and more dangerous territory. His announcement revealed a broader ambition behind the SSC-Khaatumo cause.

Jibril, who hails from the Sanaag region, declared his aim to unite “Khaatumo and Maakhir“ — a direct appeal to the East Sanaag Clan clan in Sanaag to align with the Sool clan-led movement. That significantly widens the scope of the crisis. What was once a flashpoint in Sool has now become a multi-front threat to Puntland’s territorial integrity.

If the major clans of these two regions align, Puntland could face a serious political and geographic rupture — one that would slice off its entire southern and eastern flank.

Deni’s strategy backfires

While SSC-Khaatumo grows stronger and more ambitious, Puntland’s strategy lies in ruins. What was intended as a show of strength has instead revealed a critical miscalculation. With Jibril’s resignation, Puntland has lost the legal avenue to pressure him and is left with only riskier, more escalatory options — such as economic sanctions or confrontation.

The public failure is also a blow to President Deni’s credibility. It provides ammunition to his critics, who now have a clear example to argue that his administration is not only aggressive but also ineffectual and politically outplayed.

Jibril’s resignation marks a turning point in this regional power struggle. It closes off any pathway for an institutional resolution within Puntland. Instead, it opens the door to a direct contest over territory, allegiance, and legitimacy.

The political crisis has now matured into something more dangerous — a realignment that is no longer about parliamentary procedures or legal threats. It’s now about shifting loyalties on the ground and determining which vision for the region’s future will prevail.