Mogadishu’s masterstroke: How creating SSC-Khaatumo neutralized two rivals at once

[Deeq A.]

LAS ANOD, Somalia – The landmark conference that opened in Las Anod on Sunday to formalize the new federal member state of SSC-Khaatumo is far more than a local administrative achievement. It represents the culmination of a shrewd and assertive political strategy by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in Mogadishu.

By officially sponsoring the creation of this new state from contested territory, the central government has, in a single, decisive maneuver, fundamentally undermined the two most significant challenges to its authority in the north: Somaliland’s decades-long secessionist project and the powerful regional autonomy of Puntland.

This move is a textbook example of political opportunism, turning a local uprising into a national strategic victory. For years, Mogadishu has been a peripheral actor in the north, its authority contested by the self-declared independent republic of Somaliland and the powerful, semi-autonomous Puntland state.

With the establishment of SSC-Khaatumo, the FGS has killed two birds with one stone, redrawing the political map and reasserting its role as the ultimate arbiter of the Somali nation.

A body blow to Somaliland’s statehood bid

The creation of SSC-Khaatumo lands a devastating blow to the very foundation of Somaliland’s claim to independence. Hargeisa’s entire argument for statehood rests on the sanctity of the colonial-era borders of the former British Somaliland protectorate. The permanent, FGS-backed removal of the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions—a vast and strategic portion of that claimed territory—hollows out this argument. It demonstrates that the borders are not sacrosanct and that the territory is not unified.

Furthermore, the move shatters Somaliland’s carefully constructed international narrative of a nation built on popular consent. The fierce, months-long conflict in 2023, which saw local Sool clan clan militias expel Somaliland forces after a 15-year occupation, was a violent rejection of its rule.

By formally recognizing the will of the local population to remain within federal Somalia, the FGS has legitimized this rejection on a national and international level. It sends a clear message: Somaliland does not govern with the consent of all peoples within its claimed borders. This creates a permanent, government-backed internal challenge to Hargeisa’s authority, serving as a powerful counter-argument to its quest for international recognition.

Sidestepping and diminishing Puntland

Simultaneously, Mogadishu’s strategy cleverly outmaneuvered its neighboring state, Puntland. Puntland’s claim to the SSC regions was not based on colonial borders but on deep clan kinship. The Sool clan clan of SSC and the dominant clans in Puntland both belong to the larger Harti sub-confederation of the Darod. For over two decades, Puntland asserted itself as the rightful guardian of the region’s interests.

However, Puntland was unable to effectively protect the region from Somaliland’s incursions or offer a political structure that satisfied local aspirations. The FGS astutely exploited this gap. By stepping in as the direct guarantor of SSC-Khaatumo’s status as a Federal Member State (FMS), Mogadishu established a direct line of patronage, loyalty, and administration to Las Anod.

This bypasses Puntland entirely, diminishing its stature as the primary political representative of the Harti/Darod clans. Instead of the SSC leadership reporting to the Puntland capital of Garowe, they now answer directly to Mogadishu. This not only weakens Puntland’s regional influence but also subtly shifts the balance of power within Somalia’s complex federal system, strengthening the central government’s hand against one of its most powerful and often rivalrous member states.

A new, assertive federal government

The ultimate winner in this geopolitical chess game is the Federal Government itself. After decades of being perceived as weak and unable to project authority beyond Mogadishu, the FGS has demonstrated its capacity to act decisively. It has established a powerful new blueprint for national unification: find cracks within rival power structures and offer local populations a better deal through direct federal statehood.

By positioning itself as the champion of local self-determination for the people of SSC-Khaatumo, the FGS has gained a deeply loyal new federal state. It has proven to be a guarantor of security and political will, a role its rivals have failed to play. This assertive gambit signals a new era in Somali politics, where the central government is no longer just a passive observer of regional conflicts but an active and strategic participant capable of shaping the nation’s destiny in its favor.

The future now hinges on Mogadishu’s ability to deliver tangible security, development, and governance to its new partner, all while managing the inevitable backlash from a cornered Somaliland and a sidelined Puntland.

While the path ahead remains fraught with challenges, for now, Mogadishu is celebrating a masterstroke that has fundamentally altered the political landscape of Somalia.