Al-Shabaab pivots to soft power in bid to regain influence

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia — After years of ruling through fear and violence, the jihadist group Al-Shabaab appears to be adopting a new strategy aimed at regaining influence in Somalia—not through terror, but by winning hearts and minds.

Once infamous for its brutal enforcement of extremist ideology, Al-Shabaab’s reign in areas under its control was marked by public executions, amputations, beheadings, and harsh punishments meted out under a rigid interpretation of Islamic law.

The group regularly broadcast gruesome propaganda videos depicting beheaded captives and executions of soldiers to terrorize both civilians and security forces. Cooperation with the government or international peacekeepers often meant death, not just for individuals, but for entire communities.

But in a notable shift, the group is now pursuing a more subtle, populist approach to expanding its foothold across Somalia. According to security analysts and local sources, Al-Shabaab is increasingly presenting itself as a viable alternative to the federal government, offering reduced taxes, local governance, and a semblance of order in regions where state institutions are absent or ineffective.

“They’ve significantly reduced the kind of graphic propaganda we used to see,” said Samira Gaid, a prominent Somali security analyst. “In many areas, they are now attempting to blend into local communities, using measured concessions and strategic restraint to build trust.”

Instead of punishing entire clans for alleged collaboration with security forces, the group is now allowing some communities to retain their weapons. It has also lowered its ‘zakat’ taxation levels and shown leniency toward individuals previously suspected of working with government entities.

“Except in flashpoints like Aadan Yabaal, they’re making deliberate compromises—aimed at reducing resistance and rebranding their image,” Gaid said.

This change in posture coincides with a broader security vacuum. The Somali National Army (SNA) has suffered repeated setbacks on key frontlines, most notably in Aadan Yabaal. Despite significant international investment—led by the United States—the SNA has struggled to sustain gains or assert lasting control in contested areas. International donors are now reassessing their funding commitments, especially as Somalia inches closer to taking full responsibility for its security.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently warned of declining salaries for Somali troops amid shrinking financial support. He also expressed concern that there is no clear indication of stability on the horizon.

Meanwhile, a recent summit in Kampala between African Union troop-contributing countries proposed deploying 8,000 additional peacekeepers, even as the UN plans to scale down ATMIS forces and shift focus to training and equipping Somali troops.

“The initial anti-Al-Shabaab offensive in 2022 was sparked by civilian resistance, but it never transitioned into a professional, military-led operation,” said Gaid. “Instead, political leaders took control, setting broad political goals without backing them up with a coherent battlefield strategy.”

She noted that internal issues—such as unreliable supply lines, the appointment of inexperienced commanders, and the rushed deployment of newly trained troops—have undermined operational effectiveness. Leadership reshuffles have also disrupted continuity. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud dismissed the army chief in June 2023, only to reappoint him in November 2024 amid mounting battlefield losses.

While the federal government has taken steps to counter Al-Shabaab’s financing and block its online propaganda channels, analysts warn that these efforts may fall short if the group’s new strategy gains traction with local populations.

“This isn’t a move toward moderation,” Gaid cautioned. “It’s a tactical pivot designed to embed the group more deeply within Somali society. By reducing fear and presenting themselves as an alternative authority, Al-Shabaab is attempting to reclaim its influence from the inside out.”

With political attention increasingly focused on internal power struggles, critics say the government risks losing sight of the bigger picture. “The war against Al-Shabaab can’t be fought with politics alone,” Gaid said. “It requires a credible military strategy and a coordinated plan to win public support—before Al-Shabaab does.”