Why did the US send a strong warning to Somalia’s president?

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – The warning issued by the United States to Somalia’s Federal Government was a profound political message, signaling strong concern over recent developments, particularly President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s approach to federalization, a process based on an agreed constitution and a consensual electoral framework.

The statement, released by the US State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, carried several intertwined messages: a warning, an accusation, and a rejection.

This report examines the content of the US statement, the political pressure facing President Hassan Sheikh, and the potential solutions identified.

Content of the statement

The statement conveyed three key messages:

Warning: The first message clearly warned against unilateral decisions by Somalia’s leadership that could weaken national inclusivity and cohesion.

Accusation: The United States accused President Hassan Sheikh of transforming the National Consultative Council into a partisan body, signaling an attempt to monopolize power.

This accusation refers to commitments he had previously made to US and UK ambassadors to convene an inclusive national consultation.

Rejection: Beyond the warning and accusation, the statement explicitly rejected any political outcome that excludes Puntland, Jubaland, opposition parties, or civil society.

The United States reminded President Hassan Sheikh that authoritarianism will not be tolerated.

Reasons behind the US warning

Reliable sources confirmed that US dissatisfaction stemmed from broken promises by President Hassan Sheikh.

Several direct messages were sent urging him to reconsider. However, he evaded them and ultimately planned to establish a major political party, the Justice and Unity Party (Xisbiga Caddaaladda iyo Wadajirka).

The US statement followed reports from the American Embassy in Mogadishu, warning that the president could no longer be allowed to act unilaterally.

A US diplomatic official who contacted opposition leaders indicated that the message was intended to pressure President Hassan Sheikh to halt his party’s formation and preserve the national consultative process.

Puntland’s complaint regarding SSC

The statement also stressed that the federalization framework cannot be altered without broad agreement.

This concern is linked to a complaint submitted by the President of Puntland, objecting to the Federal Government’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo.

Puntland argued that the decision concerning SSC-Khaatumo, which affects its constitution and territorial boundaries, was made without consultation.

Puntland maintains that any separation or union must be decided legally and through mutual agreement between Puntland and the SSC-Khaatumo community.

Potential next steps by the US

Initially, US diplomats responsible for Somalia, particularly Ambassador Richard H. Riley, closely monitored the situation.

However, after President Hassan Sheikh resisted the latest diplomatic advice, the issue was escalated to Washington and is now under review by the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.

If the president refuses to change course, US diplomats have told opposition figures that decisions will be made in Washington. This could potentially result in measures against President Hassan Sheikh and other Somali leaders seen as obstacles to state-building efforts.

Potential steps include economic sanctions, travel bans, downgrading or relocating the US Embassy in Mogadishu, and imposing political isolation on individuals who undermine security and the electoral process.

Options available to president Hassan  

To avoid escalating conflict and international pressure that could jeopardize Somalia’s stability, President Hassan Sheikh has a narrow path forward:

He must reopen the suspended National Consultative Conference, engage with opposition groups and dissenting federal member states, and abandon efforts to formalize his new political party.

Failure to do so could subject him to mounting political pressure that may prove challenging to withstand.

The direct warnings already issued by the United States, now reaching the level of the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, are seen as a sign that Washington anticipates the potential collapse of the president’s political project, which it views as rooted in instability, unilateralism, and deteriorating security.