Warlords in suits: How Somalia’s elites undermine the state?

[Deeq A.]

Introduction: A Paradox of Self-Destruction

In a paradox that continues to haunt Somalia’s fragile political landscape, the very architects of the federal state—its politicians, intellectuals, and elite powerbrokers—are now the same forces unraveling the delicate institutions they once championed. While they decry the dysfunction of governance, they simultaneously contribute to its demise through sabotage, egotism, and relentless pursuit of parochial interests. This investigative report peels back the layers of political narcissism, hypocrisy, and elite betrayal that have crippled Somalia’s quest for stability in 2025.

The Perversion of Federalism

When the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was conceptualized in the early 2010s, it was hailed as a compromise—a political architecture designed to accommodate Somalia’s clan-based realities, decentralize power, and foster unity in diversity. Yet, more than a decade later, it has become a battlefield for personal gain. Senior politicians, including some former federalists, now openly question the legitimacy of the very system they once helped design. Several regional leaders, after benefiting from federalism’s decentralization to seize regional power, now actively oppose FGS directives and participate in campaigns that weaken national cohesion. “They champion federalism when it suits them and reject it when national interests require cooperation,” says a former advisor to the Prime Minister, who requested anonymity. “It’s not governance. It’s selective loyalty.”

Narcissistic Politics: The Erosion of Statesmanship

At the heart of Somalia’s political dysfunction is a leadership culture shaped less by service and more by self-aggrandizement. Narcissism among elites and politicians has replaced vision and statesmanship. Social media feeds of Somali political figures offer a disturbing glimpse: constant self-praise, minimal policy discussions, and personal attacks. Leaders celebrate their photos more than their programs. Intellectuals act as tribal influencers rather than thought leaders, often wielding their platforms to incite, not inspire. “Somalia is not suffering from a lack of ideas,” notes political scientist Dr. Amina Warsame. “It’s suffering from the ego-driven sabotage of those who think they must either rule or ruin.”

Double Standards and Clan Weaponization

Somali elites exhibit a deeply entrenched pattern of double standards. When the FGS acts in ways that favor their clan or region, it’s “national leadership.” When it doesn’t, it’s “clannism” or “authoritarianism.” This selective outrage has become a form of political currency. Intellectuals, particularly those in the diaspora, have become major culprits. While publishing papers on governance and unity, many secretly fund or cheerlead clan militias, often using academic legitimacy to mask their partisan loyalties. This dual behavior undermines state-building efforts. It creates a society where the loudest voices are also the most duplicitous—and where the government’s legitimacy is determined by its favorability, not its legality.

The Culture of Political Assassination and Elite Hatred

Hatred among the elite is no longer ideological; it is deeply personal. Political rivalries routinely escalate into defamation campaigns, blackmail, and even assassination plots. Reformists within the government are often sidelined, if not targeted outright, by coalitions of the old guard—warlords in suits—determined to maintain their influence at any cost. This has created a toxic political culture where good governance is impossible, and where every appointment, policy, or project is immediately judged not on merit but on perceived loyalty.

Socio-Economic Despair: A Nation Held Hostage

The consequences are devastating. In 2025, Somalia is facing some of its most acute humanitarian and economic crises in recent memory. Inflation has eroded household purchasing power, with consumer price indices soaring by an estimated 25% in the last year alone. Youth unemployment has soared past 70%, and public confidence in institutions is at an all-time low. Yet instead of leading recovery efforts, Somalia’s political elite are locked in endless infighting. Ministries are paralyzed by corruption allegations, such as the widely reported diversion of donor funds intended for drought relief. Regional states refuse to coordinate with Mogadishu. Donor funds are mismanaged or redirected to political campaigns. The nation is held hostage by those entrusted to liberate it.

International Community: Enablers by Inaction

The international community, while vocal on paper, has often enabled this toxic dynamic by rewarding strongmen who appear “stable” or “cooperative.” As long as a leader can deliver a security report or host a donor meeting, they are treated as legitimate—despite their role in undermining federal cohesion and democratic norms. Meanwhile, reformers within the system—civil servants, youth activists, and a handful of honest politicians—are left without allies, isolated and exposed.

Contributing Factors: Climate Change and External Influence

Adding to the instability, climate change has exacerbated existing vulnerabilities. Prolonged droughts, unpredictable rainfall, and rising sea levels have displaced communities, strained resources, and increased competition over fertile land. This climate-induced stress has provided fertile ground for conflict, as marginalized groups are more easily recruited by militant factions. Furthermore, external actors have played a destabilizing role. Regional powers, driven by their own strategic interests, have often supported competing political factions, fueling internal divisions. The flow of arms and financial support to these factions has undermined efforts to build a unified and stable Somalia.

The Way Forward: A National Reckoning

Somalia does not need another donor conference. It needs a cultural and political reckoning. A new leadership ethos must emerge, one grounded in humility, service, and truth. The cult of personality must give way to institutional strength. Diaspora intellectuals must choose: be part of the solution or stop masquerading as neutral actors while fueling divisions. Federalism must be rescued from opportunists and reimagined as a national compact—not a bargaining chip. Donors must tie funding to integrity, not convenience. Supporting corrupt actors for the sake of “stability” only prolongs Somalia’s pain.

Conclusion: The Mirror of Accountability

In the end, Somalia’s tragedy in 2025 is not just about poverty or insecurity. It is about betrayal—the betrayal of a nation by its best-educated, most privileged, and most powerful citizens. If Somalia is to rise, it must first hold a mirror to those who broke it from within.

About the Author

Prof. Abdinasir Ali Osman is a highly respected senior researcher, consultant, and trainer with over 35 years of experience in the humanitarian, development, and institutional capacity-building sectors. His career spans across the private, public, and non-profit sectors, where he has played a critical role in shaping policies, building institutions, and implementing large-scale programs in Somalia and beyond.

As a leading expert in humanitarian, governance, peacebuilding, and development, Prof. Osman has dedicated his life to advancing local capacity, institutional resilience, and sustainable development. His work has influenced policy decisions, empowered young professionals, and strengthened governance frameworks in fragile and conflict-affected environments.

You can reach him through email: ipi2024@hotmail.com