Behind Kenya’s Failed Ambitions in Somalia

[Deeq A.]

On 17^th of April 2020, two Kenyan newspapers published what they called as “confidential” report alleging the existence of strong links between Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISA) and Al-Shabab.

The allegations in the report say Al-Shabab received staggering amount of USD 1.5 million through a cheque from the deputy director of NISA but was soon discovered to be unfounded.

As reported by the Caasimada Online news outlet, the alleged cheque was a fabricated image that was shared by a Facebook page under the name Mudaaharaadka 7 of February (February 7 Demonstration), which has been used to criticize the Somali government leaders, on 11^th of April 2020, six days before the Kenyan newspapers claimed to have received a confidential report from an insider in the militia. This baseless report is a series of propaganda that are aimed at defaming Somalia and its intelligence services. The full report is on www.caasimada.net.

Kenya’s ambitions to occupy Jubaland are in tatters now that the forces of Somali National Army are being deployed to secure the border between the two countries. Kenya is also of the impression that Somalia is winning the maritime dispute case currently being handled at the ICJ.

In December 2009, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr. Karl Wycoff met with the Kenyan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Wetangula in Djibouti on the margins of the IGAD ministerial meeting, warning the Kenyan government against the “Jubaland” initiative of using that region as a buffer state citing it would only add to Somalia’s instability. Wikileaks had exposed the contents of the meeting in Djibouti through the cable https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09DJIBOUTI1391_a.html.

Disregarding the advices of the International Community, Kenya deployed its troops inside Somalia’s territory in October 2011, to allegedly fight Alshabab, a move that was strongly opposed by the then President of Somalia, Mr. Sheikh Sharif  who described the military invasion as illegal.

Kenya also partnered with Ahmed Madobe, who himself fought the Somali government as an ally of Alshabab for years, before he was installed in Kismayo to lead the Kenya’s buffer state of Jubaland in 2012 shortly after the invasion of the Kenyan troops in Somalia. Kenya had close collaborations with Alshabab on the charcoal trade as reported by the UN Monitoring Group, and many still believe the relationship between the two does exist as yet though sporadic.

The locals in Kismayu and in the other regions of Jubaland are against the invasion of the Kenyan troops who commit, from time to time, various violations against civilians in the region.

Kenya’s militarization of diplomacy with Somalia never slowed down the attacks of Alshabab, but left the Kenyan troops helpless to counter their escalated attacks inside and outside Kenya. In the latest Alshabab’s assault at the US military base of Manda Bay in Kenya, the Kenyan troops, as reported by witnesses, escaped the base in to the bush.

It is to note that Kenya pushed for Alshabab to be listed as a terror group under Resolution 1267, but the Security Council had disapproved the request, after the humanitarian agencies operating in Somalia showed concerns over the delivery of the humanitarian aid in Somalia. The Somali government also sees this as increased sanctions and restrictions so could only oppose such proposal.

In the past, Kenya was regarded by Somalis as a friend when it hosted several peace reconciliation conferences that were fruitful, but now seem to be losing that respect following its occupation of Somalia’s territory of Jubaland. Seeing their plans turn to ashes, Kenya’s foreign policy is failing successfully and the apparent loss of the maritime case to Somalia June this year, could only wear out its international reputation, having claimed seawaters that don’t belong to them.

Kenya also started to host the opposition groups of Somalia for the purpose of using them to destabilize Somalia. Kenya never took Somalia seriously after the civil war until recently when the current administration of the Federal government started to bring the disoriented government affairs including  the foreign policy back in to normal. Kenya is ought to respect Somalia and its sovereignty, or else, Somalia would revive the project of bringing back the occupied NFD, the current North Eastern part of Kenya.