Haatu

A Blueprint for an Industrialised Somalia

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Haatu   
On 3/7/2020 at 3:13 AM, galbeedi said:

 

Haatu,

Don't pay attention to OOdweyne, he can not see beyond the Al-shabaab or his paranoia of one day losing and holding empty bag. As they say revolutions eat their own children , and I have no doubt he will be a victim.

 many  nations are using all kind of methods and strategies to create wealth and prosperity. I was always wondered how the Chinese were able to invest billions if not trillions of Yuan for the world class infrastructure they have built. Chinese cities , highways, electric grid and transportation systems are more advanced than the most developed nations of the west. As you said if they get back some money from the investment and write off the rest of the loans, that is a very clever way of doing things. Selling government bonds to finance projects or use for development is something many nations use today. Even cash strapped Greece sells government bonds

 

Printing money , especially more than the economy can handle usually creates inflation. As you said printing by itself is peanuts. The world had changed both its approach of development, industrialization and infrastructure building. What took 30  or 40 years or more to develop and create modern infrastructure and towns  in Europe , is taking less than a decade in China, Malaysia and even ERdogan's Turkey.

THe old economic solutions of seventies or eighties are out of the window. That is why you need a new idea or people who think out of the box. Building the nation through donor funds whether it is the army or infrastructure is recipe for failure. While C/raxman Bayle and others are doing just fine, they are old dogs trained to sit and stand by their owners (Old economic systems).

While I do not know much about currency and banks,  I have some inside knowledge about two major points you raised.

And 

The Hawala thing might not be there for another decade. The new generation of Somalis who grew up in the west will not be sending any money back home. THey don't understand the concept of sending money every moths to relatives. So, it is important to implement this development tax quickly. The 5% tax will be deducted from the recipient and the Hwala companies will transfer the money directly to the national treasury. It is not their money, they are just collecting the taxes through their transaction point. 2 billion dollars of Hawala will fetch $ 100 million dollars a year. 

 

Export promotion is what built many nations especially the Asian tigers. Even Ethiopia of Males Zenawi started the whole economy on two things. Infrastructure building and export oriented economy. Early last year when I went to Addis , I have met some business people who export coffee beans and animal skin ( Hargaha). THey told me that almost all exported goods are guaranteed by export bank created by the government. 

Every year milliuons of dollars are lost from Somali livestock traders by unscrupulous dealers from the gulf. AS we speak a thousands of livestock from Somaliland are refused and shipped back. An export bank will make the connections and pay the local traders as soon as these livestocks leave the dock. Our sheep, goats and cows might be even more expensive than the barrel of oil. THe average sheep is $80 dollars and the cow 200. If we send 10 million of these, we could earn close to a billion of hard currency.

20 years ago, as a taxi cab driver , I picked a guy from the airport who flew from Shenzhen, China. This was when China was accelerating its manufacturing capacity around the world. The guy told me that the Chinese were putting a coal fired plant for electricity,, huge industrial warehouse, hotels and telephone for the international traders. Everyone went to China and set up shop. The Chinese garment industry alone is $170 billion a year.

 

Certainly we can not do things the old way. WE need to modernize and build things within a decade. Yet, if our leaders keep listening the foreign aid group and their advice , we won't go far.  Ethiopia abandoned IMF and World bank in 2004 and started building its  huge infrastructure through CHina and others. 

The Chinese simply realised what all bankers know: that money enters the system whenever a loan is taken out. It then becomes a choice as to whether that bank is private and the profits therefore remain private, or whether that bank is public so the benefits accrued benefit the society at large. The neo-liberal West chose the private route and their economies are suffering as a result, whereas the Chinese chose the public route and their people are better off for it. As an illustration, the UK is still debating whether to build its first high speed rail and the budget is already in the billions of £s. In that time, the Chinese have managed to build the worlds most extensive high speed rail network.

As for the time it takes to develop, you are right it is increasing. It took England roughly 150 years, Japan 70 years, Taiwan and S Korea 40 years, and China just under 30 years, and Turkey will probably beat that record. As you can see, with modern technology and as the world market grows, the pace of development is increasing, but only with the right policies. 

Ethiopia started upon this path with Zenawi who was well read in the East Asian Economic Miracle and the results he achieved in a short space of time with hardly any money were astounding. That should be proof to all that these policies work even in a desperately poor and underdeveloped country. However, unfortunately for them Zenawi died and those that came after him were clueless.

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Haatu   
On 3/7/2020 at 10:34 AM, Old_Observer said:

Haatu,

You need a dictatorship of some kind. Not dictatorship on everything, but dictatorship of something.

Example: If what comes is political dictatorship, then don't bother the people who are apolitical. Traders, farmers, factory workers...just support them never bother to make the farmers league in a village political. They do not need to sing your praises.

If the dictatorship is cultural, for example, if you want to change the nomad to work in a factory 12 hours a day straight, be a dictator that way, but do not bother him once he has done that.

Do not try to be a dictator in everything.

Japan, Russia, England, Italy, Turkish, Iran, China....every single one of them had dictatorship.


100 years ago a group of Xabeshi went to the king and advised him to copy the Japanese system, instead of the European he was trying to copy. He refused. BTW some how the Japanese and Xabeshi had contacts and even small trade, believe it or not.
Even the Xabeshi priests condemned some of the technology that was coming. The devils work...

There is conditions for a dictator that can develop a society:

1. He cannot be corrupt. Dictator and corrupt never go together. If he is corrupt, he is not a dictator, just a bandit and never a corrupt dictator succeeded in history. If somebody corrupts you, it means they black mail you, they know your weakness. To be a good dictator, you cannot show weakness.

2. He should only be fanatic in development, never in any other field, culture, finance even faith.
Ataturk is best example of this. People even in Turkey cannot confidently tell you if he was Muslim, Jewish or even Christian. They cannot confidently tell you if he was Persian, Turkish, Ashkenazi, Balkan, Mesopotamian/Assyrian/Kurd..

Robert Wade, an economics professor at the London School of Economics and the world expert in Taiwan's economic development concluded at the end of his book on the subject that the most efficient system for economic development is an authoritarian system. Why? Because as shown by China, authoritarian systems have the power to invest limited national resources into sectors deemed necessary for national development, not where private interests can make the most profit. However, the caveat is that it must be a developmental authoritarianism in the guise of Park Chung Hee's Korea or Communist China, not an African banana republic authoritarianism.

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Haatu   
On 3/7/2020 at 5:34 PM, Dhaqaale said:

Here is the thing, Somalis are not agricultural by nature and never developed along the lines of a traditional society. What do I mean by traditional? Well take any major power today, Europeans, Russia, Japan, China, Korea, Perisa, India..ect you have a people who started out as nomadic and then settle down near a river and over time built farms which increase the population settlement and then you have your first city. This first step is very important and cannot be ignored.

What comes with a city settlement? Well, you get specialisation. What is specialisation? It is simply a process were society allocates different technical abilities to various people within a class order. Good at making swords? you become the forging class. Good at making fabrics? you become the merchant class. Good at farming? Good at fighting? Good at building monuments? Good at writing? you get the picture. Each specialist is allocated a position in society and those specialist form schools that teach the next generation. Now comes the governing part. Who should rule this kingdom, as more cities are built, who can govern this place? Well the priest class convince society that a monarch should rule as divine right from god. The people accept this because they are use to functioning in a system bigger than themselves, so for the time being nobody questions this. So you have the beginning of a civilisation with a strong foundation which will produce a civil society that i am talking about.

Somalis have always been wonders in a vast land populated by dry riverbeds and arid conditions. Their culture is nomadic and focused around life of a nomad not a civilisation with a written language. This is also a very important point that cannot be hidden from view. The Jubba and Shebelle have no monuments nor stone cities near them, the only source of constant water within Somali lands. They don't even have well developed agricultural farms going back 1,000 years (remember agriculture was developed in 10,000 BC). Why? Because as I have stated before Somalis did not have core development values as other societies that have rivers running through them. This is the root of Somalia's problems, they are not a settled society and cannot function without their nomadic traits. You cannot simply undo what Somalis have known for thousands of years. The transformation will happen but not within my lifetime.

The cultural arguments against development have already been debunked. You can read the literature on the subject.

As for this narrative that Somalis are inherently lazy and will not work for a wage, that is patently false for all to see. The are countless people that work very hard back home for pennies and countless more desperate for jobs. I listened to a podcast the other day where the guest spoke about the dangers of having others (scientists, historians, anthropologists) narrate the Somali story. And one of the things he mentioned was the negative stereotype of the Somali pushed, especially since the civil war. All you here is the Somalis are incapable of compromise, of living under authority, inherently unruly, lazy etc. It is so ubiquitous that even many Somalis believe this to be the case. Why? Because we went through a 30 year civil war. Many nations on Earth went through worse but nobody says that about them. The answer, we need to be the narrators of our own story.

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Haatu   

The current coronavirus pandemic has exposed many so-called develop regions of the world. It has also exposed the fallacy of neo-liberalism. Trump's America essentially begging S Korea to send them medical protective clothing and testing kits was the icing on the cake. In short, the countries (Europe and America) that sacrificed that sacrificed their industrial base on the altars of neo-liberalism and free markets are struggling, and the countries (S Korea, Taiwan, China, even Turkey) that maintained their industrial bases are doing just fine.

This crisis should make it clear to all the urgent need for nations to industrialise rapidly so that they possess the industrial and technical capacities to manufacture at the very least essential goods (in particular medical goods). This is as vital as food security. Many countries without an industrial base are really in a pickle in the East Asian countries refuse/are unable to export PPE and testing kits. Korea said they received orders and requests from over 100 countries. They simply can't meet that demand. Turkey has said it will only export any surplus after the domestic need is met.

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Oodweyne   

Haatu,

One thing I agree with you is that Neo-Liberalism economical experiments has been tried and tested to destruction. And it had failed wherever it had been tried on, from West to East. More to the point, those countries that retained their industrial capacity will fare better in this current crisis. As well as fare better indeed in terms of the new crisis that are coming down the lines, like Climate Change, which in turn will bring forth all manner of first and secondary order issues. Such as scarcity of food and the changing of the weather pattern, along with various and number of deadly plagues as well as previously unknown virulent forms of mass pandemics.

And these countries will stand a better chance than those who already did send their manufacturing sectors to the various corners of the world where labor-cost was cheapest and therefore the Return on Investment (ROI) was the highest, if all other things that go into the industrial economy was made equal.

All of that I agree with you.

However where I still find it a tad difficulty to wrap my head around it is the fact that you are deliberately overlooking the social condition you need to kick start this kind of industrial "transformative route". And such route actually requires not only any kind of rule of law and settled social stability (in which currently Somalia genuinely lack) to be there already in place in the ground. But rather it calls for a "regimentalized society", where ordered, hierarchical top-down elite-driven system, and a pyramid-like political structure should be there already in the country.

And I believe even Mr Zenawi of Ethiopia would have hit the buffers soon enough in few years time if he had lived long enough to see if he could implement this kind of "economical and industrial model", as he was trying to imposed on Ethiopia this sort of "industrialization model" from the top. Which was what he was trying to do before he passed away.

Moreover, remember you need at least 25 to 30 years of that kind of clean, corrupt-free and strict political strictures for that society to achieve such rapid transformation, as Taiwan and South-Korea did in their respective days.

Hence in here I can categorically say that really the only country in the whole of freaking Africa, who in turn could actually come close to implement any of that sort of industrialization process, and do so from bottom-up, is I believe the likes of Rwanda. Provided, of course, the likes of Mr Kagame do not became as just another one of those African's strongman (like those before him) who solely were in it for their own pockets. As opposed to them being in it for the long term interest of their countries. Like the manner in which the late Mr Lee of Singapore was in it for his tiny State. 

Finally, I really think this is not readily applicable lesson to Somalis where each man is his own "Emir" who takes no hassle or any kind of orders from anyone else (as the Brits did found out about us long time). So we need a different "economical and industrial model", than this one. And it should be a "industrialization model" that is more aptly suitable to the social, to the communal, and to the political imagination of your average Somali's Farah back in the Somali peninsula. Not one that snugly suits the "regimental societies" of South East Asia with their thousands of years of being governed by the sort of the given hierarchical top-down social structure of the kind this "industrialization model" in which you are rhapsodizing about fervently in here would call for.   

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Haatu   

Part 3

With China currently moving up the technological ladder, it is leaving low-tech industries such as textiles and garment making. Due to the size of China and it's mammoth industrial capacity, no single country can fill the void on its own. There's more than enough demand to go round even with Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh etc taking some of it. This is why the next few years are a Golden opportunity for any country wanting to industrialise to enter the textile industry. It is vitally important that Somalia does not lose out on this opportunity even if the security situation is still not optimum.

Why did I choose the outskirts of Mogadishu for this industrial complex? For two reasons. Firstly, there is a large population of unemployed and predominantly IDPs in Xamar of predominantly farming heritage. This serves two benefits. Firstly, desperate IDPs are more than willing to work for the low wages textile firms can afford and there are thousands of them providing a steady pool of labour. Also, the farmers, unlike the nomads, are hard workers and disciplined, essential qualities for factory workers. Secondly, when countries start industrialising, their only competitive edge is low cost. By having the industrial complex on the coast near a port, logistic costs are reduced to a minimum, helping with cost effectiveness (this is why Ethiopia will struggle). That's why all successful Asian countries built their first industrial complexes on the coast: Shenzhen in China, Ulsan in South Korea etc. The port in Mogadishu is the biggest and most developed of the ports under government control so it makes sense to base the complex near here. As industrialisation picks up pace, further industrial complexes will be needed in other coastal cities and even inland to achieved balanced development but that is at a later stage.

Once the country gets a foothold in the textile industry and the billions start to come in, the country must not rest on its laurels. This is actually when the hard work begins and where many countries such as Bangladesh have failed. You see, in initial industrialisation countries can only compete based on cost. However, as wages rise and other entrants enter the market, you lose your low-cost competitive advantage. To escape this, you must climb the technological ladder. This means entering newer, more technologically sophisticated markets. This means entering the electronics, paper, steel, petrochemical, and cement industries. This requires a lot of capital and expertise but it can be done. If the 5% development tax is levied on the textile industry and all agricultural exports, and foreign exchange controls are in place and national development bank financing is used, it is possible. Also, the technology for these industries are available for sale from leading companies, especially those in financial difficulties. For example, a Pakistani company that makes car batteries last year bought the technology to make tyres from one of Korea's leading tyre manufacturers Kumho for just $5 million initially and 2.5% of the turnover for a 10 year period. In return, Kumho will provide the Pakistani company with all the machinery, process engineering, engineers, technicians, training of Pakistani workers, and marketing. You can imagine after the 10 year period, this Pakistani company will be ready to go it alone.

Once you master one industry, you simply keep going up the ladder. So once you start making tyres, the next step might be manufacturing some of the fibres that go into the tyres. This sequential step-wise import substitution industrialisation coupled with export promotion is how to build up an industrial base, and use the proceeds from that base to develop the country's infrastructure and amenities, and give citizens high salaries in high tech companies. I'm sure many of us would love to live back home. But unfortunately the high paying jobs and the amenities we have in the West simply don't exist back home. Rapid industrialisation is the quickest and most sustainable way to achieve those goals (unlike the unsustainable economies of resource driven countries).

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galbeedi   
3 hours ago, Haatu said:

As for the time it takes to develop, you are right it is increasing. It took England roughly 150 years, Japan 70 years, Taiwan and S Korea 40 years, and China just under 30 years, and Turkey will probably beat that record. As you can see, with modern technology and as the world market grows, the pace of development is increasing, but only with the right policies. 

 

2 hours ago, Haatu said:

You see, in initial industrialisation countries can only compete based on cost. However, as wages rise and other entrants enter the market, you lose your low-cost competitive advantage. To escape this, you must climb the technological ladder. This means entering newer, more technologically sophisticated markets. This means entering the electronics, paper, steel, petrochemical, and cement industries

 

Haatu,

This is educational for any Somali leader who want to industrialize quickly within a decade. It is a nice peace . Please keep writing. 

We rarely see people discussing industry, technology and construction. Somalis are best equipped to write political essays, polemics and tribal narratives. The world had changed. Anyone who got his degree in economics or international trade before 1990 doesn't have a clue in the new brave world.

If you worked in the old banking system of old world , you will not be able to re-invent new wheels. You need people who want to think outside the box.

IF you are the next leader of Somalia, you must hire people like Haatu and his generation. Do not waste your time with old world dinosaurs like OOdweyne who is not only paranoid but preoccupied  his whole life about the Russians who might come to Burco one day and distinguish the false flame.

I have seen manny over educated Somalis who can not change a light bulb but would try to write poems in kings English. 

When I was in the middle school in Borama, the power station was managed by one man and his assistant. the light was usually on few hours a  night in certain area of the city.  He used to drink alcohol , and the God fearing towns people were willing to let him drink and do his thing as long as he keep the light on. Anyone else found drinking was arrested , but not Cali, because without him, it was dark with no way out.

I could swear that in that town , you couldn't find anyone who would fix a bicycle or a light bulb, yet there were men who spoke and wrote things like OOdweyne, and kept boasting about their adventures in the towns shops.

 

 

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Oodweyne   

^^^^

The usual silly waffler Galbeedi was here, apparently, in the dead of the night, as usual. After all like the coward who proudly wears his "blue dirac" he comes in here late at night when he knows he can safely spit his tendentious stuff without immediately being challenged for it. And here we have the same thing.

Now, listen up yea Ina-Gummeed, it may be the lack of any deep argument based on any larger learning of these issues you have in here that makes you to talk like this emptily. But I will have you know, that our friend, Mr Haatu - although his heart is in the right place - really has no larger idea of saving economically Somalia, at least what we see in here is not that. And to be brutally about it, what we have so far got it from his pen is a tiresome fiction that is no way applicable to disfigured social and the political condition in Somalia. 

After all, who in their right mind will invest that heavy investment in to the garment industry (which is the lowest rang of the ladder of the industrialization process) without having the government of that country actually guaranteeing the security of the investment, the rule of law in terms of who these investors will pay their tax to (and not most certainly to the likes of Al-Shabaab). None of that basic stuff is readily available in Somalia. Let alone being allowed to use as a cheap labor from the IDPs (as he seems to be suggesting in here). Which in turn is not what any international investor will wish to be accused of even if the government of the country were to say to that investing outfit we have for you a teeming cheap labor from our IDPs camps.

Hence, all told, this kind of plan has the air of futile academic exercise about it. And if that is something that gives our friend Mr Haatu a chance to display his learning in here then I shan't begrudge him in doing so. But this really is not any blue-print for Somalia economical recovery, if ever she does it. And as I keep saying it in here the discovery of oil and then using that resource extraction could be the way to kick start the economy. Which is much more readily easier route to envisage it than this way of saying Somalia can build any industrial capacity in any time soon.  

However, having said that the more pertinent question in here is why are you trying to hide behind him? It's obvious you wish to say something about your beef you have with me in here. So why furtively jump on the back of the bandwagon on Haatu's argument? You do know that I am always good enough to skin you alive in right here of SOL. And whenever you step out of line, I am easy with slap to your face, yea Ina-Gummeed. So if you have an argument to get across in here to my side and to me specifically, then don't sully and besmirched the honest and good faith arguments of others, like Mr Haatu'a ones (even if his arguments are a bit of a fiction). And you should see to it to come out with your "blue dirac" on and tussle with others as would wish to do so, if only that is, you have the capacity to do it, which I very much doubt it, anyway.

Got that, dear stooge?

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Haatu   
16 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Haatu,

One thing I agree with you is that Neo-Liberalism economical experiments has been tried and tested to destruction. And it had failed wherever it had been tried on, from West to East. More to the point, those countries that retained their industrial capacity will fare better in this current crisis. As well as fare better indeed in terms of the new crisis that are coming down the lines, like Climate Change, which in turn will bring forth all manner of first and secondary order issues. Such as scarcity of food and the changing of the weather pattern, along with various and number of deadly plagues as well as previously unknown virulent forms of mass pandemics.

And these countries will stand a better chance than those who already did send their manufacturing sectors to the various corners of the world where labor-cost was cheapest and therefore the Return on Investment (ROI) was the highest, if all other things that go into the industrial economy was made equal.

All of that I agree with you.

However where I still find it a tad difficulty to wrap my head around it is the fact that you are deliberately overlooking the social condition you need to kick start this kind of industrial "transformative route". And such route actually requires not only any kind of rule of law and settled social stability (in which currently Somalia genuinely lack) to be there already in place in the ground. But rather it calls for a "regimentalized society", where ordered, hierarchical top-down elite-driven system, and a pyramid-like political structure should be there already in the country.

And I believe even Mr Zenawi of Ethiopia would have hit the buffers soon enough in few years time if he had lived long enough to see if he could implement this kind of "economical and industrial model", as he was trying to imposed on Ethiopia this sort of "industrialization model" from the top. Which was what he was trying to do before he passed away.

Moreover, remember you need at least 25 to 30 years of that kind of clean, corrupt-free and strict political strictures for that society to achieve such rapid transformation, as Taiwan and South-Korea did in their respective days.

Hence in here I can categorically say that really the only country in the whole of freaking Africa, who in turn could actually come close to implement any of that sort of industrialization process, and do so from bottom-up, is I believe the likes of Rwanda. Provided, of course, the likes of Mr Kagame do not became as just another one of those African's strongman (like those before him) who solely were in it for their own pockets. As opposed to them being in it for the long term interest of their countries. Like the manner in which the late Mr Lee of Singapore was in it for his tiny State. 

Finally, I really think this is not readily applicable lesson to Somalis where each man is his own "Emir" who takes no hassle or any kind of orders from anyone else (as the Brits did found out about us long time). So we need a different "economical and industrial model", than this one. And it should be a "industrialization model" that is more aptly suitable to the social, to the communal, and to the political imagination of your average Somali's Farah back in the Somali peninsula. Not one that snugly suits the "regimental societies" of South East Asia with their thousands of years of being governed by the sort of the given hierarchical top-down social structure of the kind this "industrialization model" in which you are rhapsodizing about fervently in here would call for.   

Oodweyne,

You have raised three separate points here. The first is the cultural argument which I have addressed previously. The literature is quite clear on this topic. All unindustrialised societies share traits that are deemed to be not conducive for industrialisation. The same was said about the Confucian states of East Asia as traditionally engineers, technicians, and crafts people were looked down upon. You can imagine how that cultural perception has changed. You presented the example of Rwanda. Let me counter by asking you to ponder how a population in the depths of depravity killed 3 million of its own in cold blood is capable today of economic development in your estimation? What has changed? The people are the same, the values and beliefs are the same. What has changed is they have an authoritarian leader who wants to develop his country. That is the only required factor to kickstart industrialisation.

I'm sure you also remember how back in the day the nomads refused to have pit latrines in their compounds and how they preferred to defecate in the open. Those same nomads all have musqullo today. I'm sure you also remember how those very nomads also used to turn their noses to farming and yet thousands of them today do the gun's work. Culture can change.

The second point is efficient and corrupt free institutions. This likewise is not a prerequisite requirement for industrialisation as the experience of Korea has shown. After the Korean war, S Korea was totally decimated and what state institutions were left were highly inefficient and corrupt. A USAID report at the time essentially described the country as a bottomless pit that would never amount to anything. The civil service was so weak that they used to send teams to Pakistan of all countries to be trained. However, this weak and highly corrupt civil service was able to deliver Park Chung Hee's economic miracle. How? The dictator overlooked corruption in other sectors of the state and economy but he did not tolerate a single won being misplaced in his pet industrialisation projects. The weak civil service with not much experience made mistakes initially, but the process is such that the close cooperation between government and big business means lessons can be learned in real time and rectifying steps be taken. Corruption is still a big problem in Korea to this day but that has not impeded economic development. I'm sure you remember the former president being impeached and currently serving a 25 year sentence due to corruption. 

Contrast this with India which received a highly trained and efficient civil service from the British. Despite that, the Indians have been unable to replicate S Korea's economic success.

As for the third point of political stability and legitimacy, here I fully agree with you. The proposals I am suggesting will not be welcomed by some sections of society, in particular private capital, so strong political leadership with a will and vision is required. This in essence is what differentiates the countries that have been successful and those that haven't. It is why you rightly suggest that Rwanda today stands a good chance of industrialising. But I say, even our Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle of Jabuuti can easily implement these policies and develop his country as he has the political power to do so. All that is required is the will.

Now, I agree that Somalia is currently not there yet, but I fully believe that some aspects of my proposal can easily be implemented today if their is the political will in Villa Somalia. Opening one small industrial complex on the outskirts of Xamar and linking it with a road to the port is not rocket science. And there are countless businessmen in Bakaaraha who I am sure are more than willing to invest if the support package is in place.

I highly recommend you read Ha-Joon Chang's Bad Samaritans. He is a Cambridge economics professor and he explains all I have said and much more in a light-hearted manner for the non-economist. It can be found on Amazon and now that you're in lockdown I'm sure you don't have much else to do.

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Haatu   
31 minutes ago, Oodweyne said:

After all, who in their right mind will invest that heavy investment in to the garment industry (which is the lowest rang of the ladder of the industrialization process) without having the government of that country actually guaranteeing the security of the investment, the rule of law in terms of who these investors will pay their tax to (and not most certainly to the likes of Al-Shabaab). None of that basic stuff is readily available in Somalia. Let alone being allowed to use as a cheap labor from the IDPs (as he seems to be suggesting in here). Which in turn is not what any international investor will wish to be accused of even if the government of the country were to say to that investing outfit we have for you a teeming cheap labor from our IDPs camps.

You seem to misunderstand. Under this plan, all investment will be by local Somali companies. Also their is no international law banner the use of IDP labour (as long as they're paid free workers). If anything, it will be viewed as job creation for vulnerable people. In short, re-read the whole proposal and take off the FDI/aid dependence syndrome most Africans seem to suffer from. This is something radically different.

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Oodweyne   

Haatu,

Saaxiib, I hate to discourage you in here, but this is really a fiction in which you are selling in here. You talked about Rwanda - and we both agree that of all of Africa the nearest country that has the ability to go up in the ladder of industrialization is Rwanda - but you do know I take it that no one sneezes in Kigali without the say so Mr Kagame.

Of course, such State and such government really can frogmarch forcefully a whole nation and a whole society into this kind of "industrial-building capacity". However in all honesty you really think that Somalia is really such a "disciplined nation" that will submit themselves into the dictation of one man like Kagame, or to the say so of the likes of Mr Zenawi? Really? Is that your bright idea, my friend?

You talked about how literature says about how culture is not the "prerequisite condition" of this kind of process of industrialization. But show me any other country around the world that is not a member of the South-East Asian's states, who in turn had done even a half-way house to what the likes of S. Korea, the likes of Taiwan, or China, and others of that kind nations, have done?

It certainly hasn't happened in India. Not in South-America. And not in Africa. Moreover even in places like Bangladesh, they are not as regimental about it as these S/E Asia countries are. It's of course true that Bangladesh have indeed cornered effectively the market of the garment industry. But that was ad-hoc approach, not a systematic one in which the S/E Asians states have done with their first industrialization phase. 

And as for the Somalis being investors of the industrial revolution sort of thing is concern, I have may doubt about it, since no one so far had stopped them from doing it. if only they were capable of doing it so. No, I am afraid you need a strong government, and you also need a strongman's kind of politics (i.e., Mr Kagame kind of political regime). And finally you need a deeply cohesive society at the bottom of the everything. And none of that is really there in Somalia at the moment. And what is worse is that none of that is likely to be there in the future either for Somalia.

And as for IDPs, it's true the world will be glad for them to be employed somehow. But there must not be cheap labor of the kind that has no labor union, no decent compensation, and no rights, as any garment industry in the third world is likely to do or would want really. Hence, right there the UN's guys and its busybodies pen-pushers will demand all sort of legally enforce-able "statutory rights" for the teeming IDPs long before you can use them as some kind of a cheap labor. And in particularly of the sort of work-force the garment industry in which the likes of Bangladesh has it, may demand in turn just to establish themselves in your country.

Furthermore, as you do know these low-level entry jobs and the cheap work force intended for factories of the garment industries in the world over can't really be made to work, or be made profitable for the companies concern without much of the UN's ILOs charter for the "workers's protection" being jettison from the get-go long before the factory is even gets to be build. So employing IDPs will in turn bring all sort of deep scrutiny in which these cheap-labor factories may not welcome it, even if the State and the government were willing to actually provide to these companies in-order for them to invest in your nation.

And here, as an "illustration" of what on earth I am talking about it, you can observe easily the endless problem in which the Ethiopian's government is having with their version of "garment industrialization process" in which the late Mr Zenawi had tried to kick start there in Ethiopia. And how there is endless labor-related troubles at this point in time in Ethiopia. And it's a troubles that effected every facet of this process to the extend that some of the factories are dead already and non-functioning. Since the labor union of Ethiopia keep on demanding and asking their right for a decent wages and compensation for their work-force, whilst in turn on their part the Chinese's owners of these garment factories keep on refusing them.

So it's not that easy to enforce a brutal regime of cheap labor-force for industrialization process in our part of the world of the horn-of-Africa (HoA), even if you think that the likes of the IDPs at the outskirts of most major cities in the Somali peninsula can be that useful to you in this sort of industrialization phase of your country..

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:04 PM, Haatu said:

The cultural arguments against development have already been debunked. You can read the literature on the subject.

 

Wrong.

Culture is the determining factor in technological/Industrial development.

Take the threee basic groups of Somali. Nomad, Farmer and hunter gatherer.

Nomad is 24 hours on duty, but not at work. Nomad takes too many breaks. Nomad is prepared to give his life ONLY for his creator and his family. Nomad will never be Kamikaze for any governor or king.

Hunter gatherer is limited by geography, season and landscape all things very hard or impossible to influence or control

Farmer is the laziest. He works maybe 3 months a year and the rest of the year he goes house to house of relatives, neighbors for all kinds of festivities including spending week on a weedding and two weeks on Wake.

Among Somali these are classes. Only Nomad can be commander.

 

Find me a Nomad that will committ suicide like Japanese or Chinese for making a mistake and not to be embarrassed or not to embarrass his boss.

If you think dictatorship is more effective, which I agree, then you have the number one enemy, Nomad. Nomad by environment, upbringing and work, is against dictatorship. Nomad is autonomous even inside his small susb-sub-..clan.

Look at the Xabeshi. The whole world for one reason or another is on their side. Yet since they are farmers, they never take advantage of it. They are still most technologically backward and poorest even on Food and other necessities.

 

Any thought of Industrialization should take into account CULTURE. South Koreans did not allow Japanese to supervise even in Japanese companies. That is because of culture and culture that grew from war experience.

I do not have a link now, but I would point you intervies done with Herman Gref and a Turkish Big executive in explaining how even big corporations in Turkey and Western Europe function very differently.

 

 

 

 

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Haatu   

Oodweyne, Xabashi,

The problem with you two is that qumanahiinaa qoorta idiin suran as they say. So despite all the evidence I present you will not change your beliefs despite what the research may say. It's probably because you are both from the same generation that failed Africans throughout the continent. So let's just agree to disagree and move on, illaa qalbidhagax lalama dooddi karee.

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Oodweyne   
9 hours ago, Haatu said:

Oodweyne, Xabashi,

The problem with you two is that qumanahiinaa qoorta idiin suran as they say. So despite all the evidence I present you will not change your beliefs despite what the research may say. It's probably because you are both from the same generation that failed Africans throughout the continent. So let's just agree to disagree and move on, illaa qalbidhagax lalama dooddi karee.

Haatu,

Saaxiib, don't take it badly, I just see different than how you see it. And believe me, there is nothing really that I would love to see more than for me to be proven completely wrong about Somalis and their ability to implement on the ground this kind of South Korea's model of industrialization process.

And you know what, we Somalis are "copy-cat-artists". Which means if it works (even in a small scale) in say Mogadishu's outskirts and the between rivers areas, then before two years is out of the way, you will see all sort of "industrial parks" popping up all over the Somali Peninsula with many companies having the desire to get it on the act of jumping into this industrialization process.

And before you know it Somalis can give the likes of Bangladesh run for their money when it comes to cornering the garment industry of the world. For I have no doubt about that will be the likely case if one large scale industrial park of the kind you were talking about were to work in anywhere in the Somali Peninsula.

It just that I am not persuaded, or at least I am not convinced that culturally we Somalis of a Nomadic disposition are the kind of people who will submit themselves that so easily to the strict "hierarchical requirement" in which this kind of industrialization process actually requires from any nation who wish to start this kind economical system with its "delayed gratification" that will only bare fruit down the line in decades to come. But not next year. Given that it took South-Korea a better part of three (3) decades to achieved what they have now in comparison to where they had started and where they were back in early 1960s.

Lets hope someone out there proves me wrong and get cracking on with this thing and show us how easy it's to do this sort of "Cheap-labor-based Industrialization Process" in somewhere in the Somali Peninsula. For if that were to happen, then, I will literally put my hand up and say: "man, that Sijuu fellow, Mr Haatu was right all along". 😂  

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9 hours ago, Haatu said:

Oodweyne, Xabashi,

The problem with you two is that qumanahiinaa qoorta idiin suran as they say. So despite all the evidence I present you will not change your beliefs despite what the research may say. It's probably because you are both from the same generation that failed Africans throughout the continent. So let's just agree to disagree and move on, illaa qalbidhagax lalama dooddi karee.

 

You are unconsciously displaying the main problem. Pointing out issues from what has been tried, what worked and what did not work.

Xabeshi had chosen at least for a decade, the South Korean model. All they achieved was more than 10 percent GDP growth for that decade. They sent each year hundreds of students, trainees, and also brought in Korean businesses and educators. Even the Chinese did not mind this. The Americans did not mind this. The Europeans were not happy about it, but did not at least openly work against it. Year 2000 to 2010.

Then Politics took over. The accusation that ONLY Tigray were benefiting from this development found ground and and off to the races to get rid of them. People in Ethiopia are cursing them for tying the country in knots with Djibouti. Knots that are almost impossible to undo.

This decade Ethiopia will spend all its energy and time to go a different direction. Any direction except what the Tigray attempted to do.

Not to pile up negativity, but you are also ignoring background.

Japan was a highly developed country in the 1900s. Around 1905 when Russians were doing their revolutions, there were Xabeshi (intellectuals of the time) who advised the King to follow Japanese model and Japanese Technology not Western.

Cohesion is also one of the factors that is common with all Eastern Religions.

Division is the main factor in both Islam and Christianity. War between different branches of both Muslim and Christian is common occurrence that wasted centuries.

 

My point is only to say that you need to consider where you are at the moment, since that is all the energy you have to attempt at any task/project. Othersise you can have the Xabeshi experience where they burned Turkish investment in Amxara just because the Amxara assumed that Turkish are friends only with Tigray. Now they do not have Tigray and Investment.

 

 

 

 

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