galbeedi

UAE is waging a proxy war in Somalia with help of others.

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galbeedi   

 

In late December, mainly democratic and elected governments of the leading Muslim nations  met in Kuala Lumpur , Malaysia. The idea begun when the prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan, Mahathir Mohamed of Malaysia and Recep  T. Erdogan of Turkey met at the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York. THe idea was to address the huge problems the Muslim nations and people are facing today. How to lift the population from poverty and increase cooperation. 

 

Pakistan, Malaysia, Turkey , Indonesia and QAtar signed on and Iran was also invited. With 250 million INdonesians, combined with 200 million Pakistanis, 80 million Turks and 70 million Iranians, you got 600 million people within Asia and Europe. THey could easily create a huge trading block and political grouping that could resolve many of the chronic issues facing the Muslim world. Over 90% of people dying in conflicts today are MUslims. So far no major efforts had been implemented to lift that fast majority of the people from poverty.  Infrastructure building , whether it is housing,  roads, electric grid and global trade had lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese out of poverty and made them an economic power. 

 

This initiative was supposed to create a new common front to tackle both economic and political issues facing these nations and find solutions. The Saudis and UAE felt threatened by these initiatives and begun to abort the summit. The Saudis fear that the new initiative might sideline the bogus outfit called Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Just like the toothless Arab league based in Cairo, this one doesn't have any mechanism to promote peace, trade or conflict resolutions. The Arab league today is just gathering of despots and feudal monarchs, and must be disbanded. Since MUslim unity, democracy and representative government is a great threat to this feudal monarchs, they openly waged war.

 

Just a week before the summit they told  Imar Khan and asked him to withdraw. He went to Riyadh and pleaded with Saudis to let the conference happen and gave them assurances that this summitt is not a new grouping or threat to their rule. THe feudal despots gave him an ultimatum . They told him they will expel 4 million Pakistani workers from their country and replace them with Bangladeshi workers, and they and the UAE will withdraw the billions they deposited in Pakistani central banks to prop up their currency. Imran KHan called Mahathir, apologise and told him the threat of the gulf which might endanger his economy.

 

Unfortunately, Erdogan while excusing the difficulty Pakistan faced, also bragged about how poor and needy Somalia stood up to the gulf threat and decided to stay  neutral of the rich gulf boys manufactured conflict in 2018. He said, " they were desperate and needed all kinds of help but stood their ground". Well, that speech might have made Somalia as proud and free people among the Arab media and the MUslim world, but it pushed the the gulf butchers to take action against the misbehaving Somalia. THey thought that if 200 million strong and nuclear Pakistan was forced to back down, certainly these poor nomads might change their mind. 

 

 As Farmaajo visited Saudi Arabia in his early days after his elections, he said, the Saudis had given hom $50 million, but he also mentioned that the king said it up to him and they were willing to offer billions if he supposedly played ball.  According to influential Turkish columnist, there was a meeting between a UAE delegation and Somali government last week to downgrade ties with Turkey and start a new beginning  with Somalia. Somalis, as expected refused to downgrade the relationship with Turkey.  It is very strange that the Somali government keeps courting the  Emirates secretly while publicly showing their deep attachment to Turkey.  I have no idea whether it is the prime minister who want to keep these secret channels with UAE open or the president. I suspect Khayre might  be the guy leading this.

 

 

Personally , I do not buy about  Al-shabaab's admission of the bombs two full days after the fact. The issue isn't about whether Al-shabaab did it or not. Al-shabaab is well connected to criminal cartels and hitmen in Mogadishu. The latest intelligence report indicate the truck didn't even travel the normal highway leading to the checkpoint, but used a secondary road to interject himself to checkpoint to target  Turkish engineers  and its security convoy that approached the checkpoint. Even before Turkey started building the military base, and their efforts were concentrated on humanitarian help, these killers targeted them. Why would Al-shabaab target those building hospitals and schools?. I do not give any weight to the so called  law IQ Sheiks like Sheikh Cali Dheere who usually ordered to read statements. Even the BBC somali service is propagating about Al-shabaab sending condolences. 

 

THese operations are probably waged by secondary intelligence units deployed by UAE to wage a proxy war against Turkey in Somalia. THey are helping Kurds to dismember Syria and target Turkey at the same time. THey oppose Turkey keeping Syria united by settling Syrian refugees in their towns. The proxy war will continue unless two outcomes are reached. One is to install military Junta style leaders like Sisi of  Egypt, Haftar of Libya and keep Assad in  Syria. The second option is for the chaos to continue. In fact, the chaos theory is the main policy of the Pentagon which was used against Pakistan and Afghanistan. By  imposing a warlord and dictator in Libya, they can steal the resources without accountability. 

 

The UAE can not achieve the first goal of installing a dictator in Somalia. Even the the second theory of the chaos can not be achieved without the assistance of foreign powers and neighboring countries. The British government is helping the UAE on the diplomatic front unless Somalia captulates and joins the camp of despots. President Farmaajo made a great progress toward minimizing the influence of the UN for the last few years, but now it seems they are hell bent on weakening him just a year before the election. The UK government is blocking all  Somalia efforts to lift the arms embargo at the UN security council on behalf of Kenya and UAE. How can a nation defend itself if it doesn't have any real weapons. The national security adviser of the president Cabdisaciid Muuse argued the other day that, " Somalia doesn't need arms embargo lifts after it becomes peaceful, it needs arms now". Actually , you might only need one single veto wielding country to object. Since the question at the security council is, do we have to renew the embargo or not?, all you need is China, Russia or USA to say no, we don't have to.

 

The chaos theory will not work without weapons been flooded to Somalia by neighboring countries. THe foreign policy of every Somali government should be two main parallel issues. Lifting the embargo and the withdrawal of foreign forces. THere is no Al-shabaab standing army to invade and occupy Mogadishu today. Thousands of Amisom troops are sitting inside bases  without any offensive duties. Our main bases have been occupied by Amisom and others. Arms embargo could be breached easily if real efforts are taken. The UN security council is just a toothless organization that orders around only those who are weak or willing participants. In libya, the arms embargo had been breached openly by everyone. In December 2 2019, they issued statement calling, "on all countries on Monday to implement an arms embargo on Libya and to stay out of the conflict after U.N. sanctions monitors accused Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey of repeated violations."

 

We need our Balidoogle air base and bring in weapons. You can not stop Al-shabaab , criminal cartels and foreign intelligence saboteurs without limiting the monemvets of foreign armies; the movements of money and the movements of Ethiopian troops in the border regions. Al-shabaab can not wage war if their arms are cut off. THeir main sources of weapons is Amisom and Ethiopia. They might buy a gun from hungry soldier but they could not get heavy weapons or huge stockpiles to fight for months.  THe Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) doesn't have a full functioning airport without military threat yet, it is fighting and resisting a warlords awash with money and weapons. THe Somali government of today doesn't have any direct military threat to her existence. Yet, A Halane compound resident told me last week that without Amisom the Somali government could not exist, and every sensitive are including Villa-Somalia is protected by them. . I asked him why not use your own Somali soldiers? , Late president Abdilahi Yusuf used his own Somali boys for protection?. He said Al-shabaab would infiltrate and kill the leadership. 

The movements of money will  keep feeding  Al-shabaab unless business oligarchs in Mogadishu are stopped completely. The rich relecomes can not even cut telephone lines in Al-shabaab ruled town let alone Mogadishu. The government should get satellite phones and walkie talkies with low frequencies while conducting operations. Cut the internet and telephone for weeks unless we achieve huge successes against the sleeper cells. 

This town is feeling comfortable while people are dying in large numbers. Last count shows 50 or so embassies in a war torn country. What do they achieve living in Nairobi and visiting trailer  homes inside the airport. Everyone is traveling for money and false projects including the prime minister. Last time he spend 50 days in central Somalia to create Galmudug state that no one is interested. THey could not subdue a Sufi group looking more cash than an administration. He is still there while people are buried in Mogadishu by hundred. I want everyone in this town to be uncomfortable. I want the foreigners and false projects pushers to leave the town. Introduce curfews from dawn to dusk. 

Unless the Proxy war is understood and confronted expect the chaos to continue.

 

 

 

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Oodweyne   

Poor Galbeedi, for he seems to be losing the plot in here, as usual. Which is habitually the case with him particularly when he is hallucinating with his "imaginary confidential sources", which only visits him in the dead-of-the-night when he is in fast sleep.

My friend, that really is a pitiful turn in "conspiracy theorizing". In fact the best practitioners of this "conspiracies genre" in the American's right-wing nut-jobs, who usually go for this sort of "tall conspiracies" in-order to justify why their plans to transform the wold into "White-power hegemony" did not go according to their script, would be hard pressed to come up with anything that is this outrageously absurd. Or at least they would be hard pressed to try to come up with anything that will challenge for the first place (or a pride of place) of the most silliest and other world conspiracies of that sort than what you have penned in here.

But I just recalled that President J. F. Kennedy once said that: "defeat is an orphan but victory has many fathers" (or words to that effect). And I did remembered that line when I realize (just about now) as to the length you are willing to go with this absurd line of "rationalizing" away the reasons Villa Somalia's gang had failed and failed miserably in their first duty towards those who they were there for and they were supposed to protect them. Which is the people of the country and their security.

No, my friend, this litany of "useless exculpatory justification" of why Villa Somalia's failed is really good enough only for the ash-heap or the liter-box. And it's not the the stuff that can mount a case of "mitigating circumstances", in-terms of why the political gang in Villa Somalia had failed their public. And hence, in essence, your "conspiracy-mongering-essay" that is in here doesn't at all come across as if it's good enough to plead a sufficient ground for the "acquittal" of this gang in Villa Somalia before the public when it comes to accounting for why they have failed their security duties.

Furthermore, all these convoluted and indeed labyrinth arguments about what UAE and Saudi's regime (i.e., KSA) are up to and what they are doing in the Muslim world currently, are essentially the same stuff that was raging all along, at least in the last few years. But still the gang in Villa Somalia deliberately decided to side with Qatar (although they thought that they can be clever enough to hide it such "diplomatic tilt" from the other side). And they did that in their desire (or hope, really) to get their hands on Qatari's easy loot and the "slush fund's largess" from that corner in which Qatar sits without thinking through the implication such "deal" will be pregnant with for Somalia, at least in so far as the counter-measures the other-side, namely, the UAE/KSA will in turn mount from their strategical vantage's point.  

After all, if a man puts his hand in a "hornet's nest", then he may be liable to have his hand gets stunk in there in a rather bitterly and a repeated manner, I presume, naturally, of course. 

But as I said it in the other thread to you last night (which by the way you have decided to run away from it, as usual, without engaging the meat of my argument) the fact of the matter is that it's really late in the day to turn around and say that the reason the gang in Vila Somalia can't secure the city of Mogadishu (let alone the country as whole) is this alleged "gulf-monarchies-inspired's-proxy-wars". For that is an unarguably and patently false argument when you ought to know on the other hand that, as of fact, such inter-Muslim's war of "political supremacy" over the Muslim's world has been going on since 2010, at least in its current form.

And that was when the original "Arab spring" took place and Qatar and Turkey on one side (for they were supporting the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Egypt) clashed strategically with Gulf monarchies, who in turn were supporting the Mubarak's dictatorship firstly and then Al--Sisi's restoration of the Egyptian's military dictatorship in the later years.

Moreover the political clique in Mogadishu knew all along that politics of Gulf-rivalry was going to blow up in their faces. But since they were (and still are) a "collections of cheap opportunists" (of the political kind), who in turn never saw a "political game" they didn't think they should not be involving themselves in it, they saw a chance to play Qatar/Turkey against UAE/KSA. Moreover, however outrageously it may seem to us at this distance from it, they still thought that not only can they live through it, but they can still tell a tale about it on the other side of it when it's all over in few years time. And for good measure they hoped that they can "milked" both sides along the way in the mean-time. Which means they thought they can at the same time "profit" (i.e., politically and financially) from both sides in their "strategical-tug-of-war" in the gulf's imbroglio.

Naturally, these inept duo (i.e., Mr Kheyre and Mr Farmaajo) never saw it in their minds that they were actually out of their depth in this deadly "gulf's game" in which they were pitching themselves in it rather foolishly. Which is why the whole thing came unstuck for them. However, what is lamentable in the mean-time is that whilst they were playing a diplomatic version of "hide-and-seek" between Turkey/Qatar on one hand and UAE/KSA on the other hand, and getting no where fast at the same time, the country they were supposed to be governing went from bad to worse, at least in security wise. 

Lastly, the rest of your stuff about what should happen, or about what should foreign embassies should do, or about what curfew should be imposed on Xamar, or about what UNSC should do to "Somalia's arms embargo", or even about how the likes of China and Russia should "veto" the yearly re-imposition of UNSC's arms embargo on Somalia, all of that talk, I am afraid, is your usual talk of "hallucination and delusion", my friend. And I say that since you know very well (or at least you should know it by now) that all of that guff is unlikely to happen so long as the present gang in Villa Somalia are in office. Given that they have failed and failed so openly, so glaringly, so comprehensively, so completely, and so catastrophically, at least in so far as Somalia is concern.

Hence the only "redeeming feature" that they likely to have as they gingerly limp towards the finishing line of their duration in office is that they can at least try to "organize" some kind of parliamentary and presidential selection process (i.e., a re-jig version of the old reliable "4.5 political dispensation") in time for the change-over to commence in December of this year. For there will be no other major "national achievement", which in turn will be "recorded" for them by the time the selection hustings gets underway in earnest at the end of this year, I am afraid.

But still having said all of that, and as I said to you last night, it's really pity to see how you have reduced yourself into this level of "grovelling and sycophantic Monday's quarter-backing" for a failed political clique in office in Villa Somalia. And in particularly a political clique whose time in office is fast running out without any of them having any larger achievement under their belts (as it were) which to show the public to.

Well it seems that you have chose your "political bed" in a rather foolhardily fashion (at least in my view). And you did so without major (or deeper) intuition on your part about the "real characters" of the current gang in Villa Somalia who you were minded to carry their "verbal brief" for them. Or you have chosen to be their "hired apologist or stooge", who in turn was ready to "justify" all that is unjustifiable which did happened or may have taken place under the political watch of this gang in Villa Somalia.

And now, my friend, since you have in effect "lost all credibility" (at least, in all sense of it). And did so in the "defense" of this gang in Villa Somalia. Then you must therefore be prepare to "sleep" on that sordid and soiled bed of yours, I am afraid. 

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Oodweyne,

Great to see you back in the SOL Republic. Hopefully in good health and happy.

Me thinks Galbeedi is conflicted. He missed the main thing in politics is not what your best wishes are, but what is possible to do/accomplish towards your best wishes. One week is fighting regions, another week Al Shabab, another week Ethiopia or Kenya then another week some region....

Example: There was a project that Farmaajo should have accomplished 6 months ago by the latest. Provide the Turkish with 20,000 for army training in Somalia and 2000 for training in both Turkey and Somalia for special operations or rapid deployable force. Except the first batch in both cases nothing was done. Do you know why? Abiy and Afwerki told Farmaajo that Turkish trained sodiers will not be loyal to him in his fight with regions or Mogadishu. So Abiy and Afwerki told him they will train for him with of course UAE (the boss for both of them). The project is now dead and Abiy is telling him to use Ethiopian forces which will be loyal(foreigners) and cheaper.

I am sure galbeedi agrees with the above, yet would not give up on Farmaajo and co.

 

 

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Oodweyne   

Old_Observer,

Long time no see my friend. I presume that you have been busy (like I was) with the usual "curve ball" in which life throws at you, from time to time. Well, all is good from my end other than chasing the usual life's commitment in most days. Which is why I took some sabbatical leave from this joint.

As for the subject matter of this discussion, and why our friend, Mr Galbeedi, is so wrong now, that, he couldn't be acquainted with the facts on the ground in Somalia even if they hits him on the face, I think, that is largely to do with the fact that he was so desperate for a functioning government in Villa Somalia that he actually parked his "critical thinking" into some serving and "rent-able garage" in Alberta of Canada.

And he then duly proceeded not only to give a large dose of benefit of doubt to the clique in Villa Somalia. But most crucially of all, he actually decided to not to see, or hear, or even engage his brain as to the whether there is any "discrepancy" of what Villa Somalia were officially saying and what actually they were doing or they weren't doing on the ground.

Subsequently, after a long three (3) years where he was their "happy stooge", all along sinking the praises of this inept outfit in Villa Somalia, he finally woken up to the fact that he had been had, so bamboozled in royal fashion, taken for a ride like so much of gullible fool they made him out to be, that he now looking for excuses (a tall conspiracies, really) to explain away why Villa Somalia's political clique have failed and who is responsible for that failure.

After all, if he accept (in heart and in mind manner sort of way) that that failure has one address only, and it's the address of Villa Somalia, then, immediately, he would have to reproach himself for being made a gullible sort of person who actually trusted these political sharks and these openly conniving "loot-grasping-chancers" for so long without him smelling the coffee long time ago, or at least well before now.

Hence, now, he is going through the "seven (7) stages of grief" (as I said it last night) in-terms of coming up with all manner of "plausible explanations" of what took place. And how to account for those political failures along the way without him "fingering" himself in as the "flimsy gullible character", who in turn did not see this turn of reality coming his way from the get-go.

In other words, he is still out there looking for some kind "exculpatory reasons" that will tell him why Villa Somalia had failed without those mitigating circumstances making him out to be a political fool that he was for the chancers in Villa Somalia for so long. Or at least he is looking for some "alternative reasons" that can get him off the hook as to why he was their stooge for so long. Hence, the painfully apparent political posture of him being so "conflicted" about what took place in the last three (3) years or so, as you have already noticed it in here.

Lets hope he works through his "grieving process", and then come out at the other end, knowing, finally, that, the "faults" were never on the stars of others, be they domestic opponents of the "N&N crew", or be they some alleged foreigners (with their evil minds). But rather it was always going to be the case that Villa Somalia was destined to be the "sole author" of the "political failure or success" of the government of Somalia.

And with that, those who are ensconced in power in that Villa Somalia's office during the time they were empowered to governed Somalia, will eventually have to carry the "political can" of anything that happens under their watch.

Consequently, we are now seeing and witnessing the unraveling in front of our eyes of those political failures by Villa Somalia's clique, despite the best failing attempt of our friend, Mr Galbeedi, to "attribute" those glaring failures to some other third parties.

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UAE is one country where the saying:

People living in glass houses should not be first to throw stones

perfectly applies and they know it.

When the Houthi sent couple of drones to UAE just for demonstration, that did the job.


Being at the lap of Abiy and Afwerki yet wanting to confront UAE is pointless and nobody will buy that. Abiy/Afwerki are themselves at the lap of UAE/Saudi.

In this case Djibouti and North Somalis all parts have acted with self respect.

They never jumped and danced with UAE or against UAE with Qatar. Heck..they never even jumped with America or China.

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