Old_Observer

Ethiopia in very critical stage Governing Party falls apart

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Apophis   
8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

I heard Farah Macalin explain how Somalis achieved their political ans economic success in Kenya. It is totally different. Most of all , despite our disagreements and the sea issue, Kenya is an stable democracy. If Cgjar is comparing the Kenyan Somali experience in the Somali region , he is mistaken.  Ethiopia is the unfinished project of the 19th century colonial project.

He should demand the reform of the party and make sure decisions are made in Jigjiga.

Abiy can't remove the TPLF man in Makale. Cagjar must not allow regime change in Jigjiga from Addis. This can only be done by reforming the party. Ahmed Shide is no longer serving the kilil.

I don’t know if he grew up in Kenya but he has certainly spent a significant amount of time there.

I know he was working from Nairobi and I think his experiences there have greatly shaped his centralist attitude.

Does he wish to see Ethiopia become like Kenya? I think so, I also think he sees himself as a pragmatist like Aden Bare Duale. 

Perhaps becoming a right hand man to a strong ruler.

Of course this is all an error, in my opinion, as Ethiopia is quite different, in every sense, to Kenya.

Although I do believe the whole of East Africa can learn a great deal from Kenya, in this case I think Cagjar is mistaken if he thinks he can copy paste the Kenyan model to Ethiopia.

The best thing for Ethiopia is disintegration, peacefully.

Such a thing will rejuvenate the horn.

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21 hours ago, Apophis said:

I don’t know if he grew up in Kenya but he has certainly spent a significant amount of time there.

I know he was working from Nairobi and I think his experiences there have greatly shaped his centralist attitude.

Does he wish to see Ethiopia become like Kenya? I think so, I also think he sees himself as a pragmatist like Aden Bare Duale. 

Perhaps becoming a right hand man to a strong ruler.

Of course this is all an error, in my opinion, as Ethiopia is quite different, in every sense, to Kenya.

Although I do believe the whole of East Africa can learn a great deal from Kenya, in this case I think Cagjar is mistaken if he thinks he can copy paste the Kenyan model to Ethiopia.

The best thing for Ethiopia is disintegration, peacefully.

Such a thing will rejuvenate the horn.

The problem of East African politicians is that they forget that the Somali nomad is very different to other nomads. The Somali nomad has always had some kind of laws and organization. Has reached level of Sultanates, Kingdoms and even empires.

Other nomads went straight to European system from very very primitive life. They did not have much habits good or bad. The Somali had a lot of habits good or bad and some of them conflicted with European systems.

100 years at war produces its own culture.

This is what politicians or apprentice like @Abtigis miss. Kililka is even different from any other Somali enclave. It has every clan or sub-clan of Somali that ever walked on earth. Only American Somali, Candian Somali...clans are missing which are on their way. Kililka has already British Somali.

 

 

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Apophis   
6 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

The problem of East African politicians is that they forget that the Somali nomad is very different to other nomads. The Somali nomad has always had some kind of laws and organization. Has reached level of Sultanates, Kingdoms and even empires.

Other nomads went straight to European system from very very primitive life. They did not have much habits good or bad. The Somali had a lot of habits good or bad and some of them conflicted with European systems.

100 years at war produces its own culture.

This is what politicians or apprentice like @Abtigis miss. Kililka is even different from any other Somali enclave. It has every clan or sub-clan of Somali that ever walked on earth. Only American Somali, Candian Somali...clans are missing which are on their way. Kililka has already British Somali.

 

 

I have highlighted the blatant lies.

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On 7/13/2019 at 2:05 PM, Apophis said:

I have highlighted the blatant lies.

Name any Somali enclave that has more parts of clans and sub-clans of Somalis more than Kililka?

Lets use: NFD, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, Kililka...based on current governance.

 

 

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update:

Amxara Kilil has chosen replacements for theleaders that died.

1. President will be PM Abiy advvisor, just like the late President was also PM Abiy advisor bad optics and meaning

2. The party V/P and Government president has been split for first time

Rumour is that the party V/P was not PM Abiy choice and the President of the KIlil is not Amxara party choice. There is also deep regional/clan rift and this is temporary solution.

PM Abiy has now completed changing Kilil government heads as he said except Benishangul and Tigray. He was very childish to say that.

He said starting from Somali, except Benishangul and Tigray, we have changed all kilil governments at least Kilil presidents. Meles used to do that, but never would he even mention let alone bragg about it.

For the Somali its humiliating. Even when Abiy threatened the Sidama, he said in parliament, I will do what I did in Somali Kilil, if you don't listen and obey my plans and timing.

He changed everywhere, but only the Somali president is willing to talk openly supporting PM Abiy and Co. All others are holding on to Federalism and not saying anything bad about their past Kilil leaders. There is change of President in Afar, but not change of nuance and not even small criticism on their past leaders.

PM Abiy party is now the weakest in Oromia, his home state. His party is now shifting to issues of the opposition and becoming more Oromo nationalist which immediately breaks their alliance with Amxara who is also becoming more Amxara nationalist.

 

The situation is really bad. There is no imposing leader. Too much outside reliance from UAE to America to Regional neighbors.

 

.

 

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Apophis   
6 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

Name any Somali enclave that has more parts of clans and sub-clans of Somalis more than Kililka?

Lets use: NFD, Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, Kililka...based on current governance.

 

 

You have purposefully mis framed the question to get a particular answer.

0gadenia is no different to any other Somali “enclave”

 and there are three or four tribes who inhabit the land, at most.

It is as homogenous as any other Somali land.

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Apophis   
6 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

update:

Amxara Kilil has chosen replacements for theleaders that died.

1. President will be PM Abiy advvisor, just like the late President was also PM Abiy advisor bad optics and meaning

2. The party V/P and Government president has been split for first time

Rumour is that the party V/P was not PM Abiy choice and the President of the KIlil is not Amxara party choice. There is also deep regional/clan rift and this is temporary solution.

PM Abiy has now completed changing Kilil government heads as he said except Benishangul and Tigray. He was very childish to say that.

He said starting from Somali, except Benishangul and Tigray, we have changed all kilil governments at least Kilil presidents. Meles used to do that, but never would he even mention let alone bragg about it.

For the Somali its humiliating. Even when Abiy threatened the Sidama, he said in parliament, I will do what I did in Somali Kilil, if you don't listen and obey my plans and timing.

He changed everywhere, but only the Somali president is willing to talk openly supporting PM Abiy and Co. All others are holding on to Federalism and not saying anything bad about their past Kilil leaders. There is change of President in Afar, but not change of nuance and not even small criticism on their past leaders.

PM Abiy party is now the weakest in Oromia, his home state. His party is now shifting to issues of the opposition and becoming more Oromo nationalist which immediately breaks their alliance with Amxara who is also becoming more Amxara nationalist.

 

The situation is really bad. There is no imposing leader. Too much outside reliance from UAE to America to Regional neighbors.

 

.

 

I don’t know why people take Cagjar seriously.

He was a junior UN employee who occasionally “penned” badly thought out “articles”, which in a nation of illiterates, made him some philosophical genius. 

In a way, he is no different to Farmajo, he was selected because they knew his limitations, and they knew he would not take these people far.

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6 hours ago, Apophis said:

I don’t know why people take Cagjar seriously.

He was a junior UN employee who occasionally “penned” badly thought out “articles”, which in a nation of illiterates, made him some philosophical genius. 

In a way, he is no different to Farmajo, he was selected because they knew his limitations, and they knew he would not take these people far.

Don't underestimate the power of government. He can weaken and destroy Liyu, He can corrupt some persons or provinces, he can split ONLF...few things he can do. All these are instructions/wishes by PM Abiy and Amxara as well.

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Apophis   
1 hour ago, Old_Observer said:

Don't underestimate the power of government. He can weaken and destroy Liyu, He can corrupt some persons or provinces, he can split ONLF...few things he can do. All these are instructions/wishes by PM Abiy and Amxara as well.

He can do none of those things because he is not that well politically experienced.

Abdi Illey was illiterate but a master politician. 

Our friend Cagjar appears overwhelmed by the situation.

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