Ismaciil cumar geele touches on the geopolitical change in the horn

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

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Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle : Waan baahanahay Bahalo looma cuno

 

 

Talaado, December, 18, 2018 (HOL)- Madaxweynaha dalka Jabuuti Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle ayaa sheegay in Isbadalka ka socda Geeska Africa loo baahan yahay marka hore in si taxadir leh leysaga eego wixii dan iyo dibin-daabyo ah ee ku jira.

Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle ayaa hadalka ka sheegay xiritaankii madal ay isku arkeen Aqoonyahanno ka kala socda deegaannada looga hadlo Afka Soomaaliya oo uu soo qaban qaabiyay Machadka HERITAGE.

‘’Isbadalka haatan socda iyo kuwa soo socdaaba waxaa loo baahan yahay in la iska fiiriyo la iskana hubiyo wixii dan ah iyo dibindaabyo ee ku jira, Waayo, Waan baahanahay Bahalo looma cuno.ayuu yiri Madaxweyne Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle.

Kalmadan uu isticmaalay madaxweyne Ismaaciil Cumar Geelle ayaa noqotay hadal heynta madasha, iyadoo aqoonyahannada qaarkood sheegeen in madaxweynuhu ula jeeday in Soomaaliya looga baahan yahay in ay iska eegto wixii dan ah ee ugu jira Isbadallada socda.

 

Madaxweynaha ayaa sheegay in marka laga hadlayo danaha wadamada Geeska uu jiro Urur u xilsaaran oo ah Urur gobolleedka IGAD kaasoo guta ayuu yiri xilka Iskaashiga Gobolka.

“Tusaale ahaan Dowladaha Jabuuti iyo Itoobiya waxay qaadeen talaabooyin ku dayasho mudan, kuwaasoo ku saabsan dhanka is-dhex-galka wadamada gobolka,”ayuu yiri hadalkiisa sii raaciyay madaxweyne Geelle.

Madasha waxaa dhinaca dowladda Soomaaliya uga qeybgalay ra’iisal wasaare ku-xigeenka xukuumadda Mahdi Maxamed Guulleed Khadar, Wasiiro iyo Xildhibaanno, sidoo kale waxaa ka qeybgalay aqoonyahanno, dad magac-ku dhax leh bulshada iyo siyaasiyiin hore.

Agaasimaha Hay’adda HERITAGE Cabdirashiid Khaliif Xaashi oo ay hay’addiisu soo agaasintay Shirkaasi ayaa sheegay in ay muhiimaddu aheyd in Soomaalida la aruuriyo, isbedelkana lagu galo Indho furnaan iyo in loo dad badsado, waxaa kaloo uu xusay in la isku afgartay in la bilaabo wadahadaladii u dhaxeeyay Soomaaliya iyo Somaliland, iyadoo lala wadaagayo Madaxda Qaranka.

 

Tan iyo wixii ka danbeeyay heshiiskii dowladdaha Itoobiya iyo Eritrea gobolka Geeska Africa waxaa ka curatay dabeyl-siyaasadeed oo laakiin siyaabo kala duwan loo fasiray, iyadoo dowladda Jabuuti u muuqato wali mid aan ku dhax-milmin isku soo dhawaashiyaha dowladdaha, Itoobiya Eritrea iyo Soomaaliya.

[Old_Observer]

On 12/18/2018 at 6:11 AM, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

 

Tan iyo wixii ka danbeeyay heshiiskii dowladdaha Itoobiya iyo Eritrea gobolka Geeska Africa waxaa ka curatay dabeyl-siyaasadeed oo laakiin siyaabo kala duwan loo fasiray, iyadoo dowladda Jabuuti u muuqato wali mid aan ku dhax-milmin isku soo dhawaashiyaha dowladdaha, Itoobiya Eritrea iyo Soomaaliya.

 

Some conflicts and competitions are "natural". When it comes to ports Eritrea Somalia and Djibouti cannot work together. If they are matured like Ghelleh the best they can do is make the competition positive..building better than the other guy..instead of bringing down the other guy to your level by destructive means.

 

Djibouti always chose the constructive competition. Eritrea the destructive competition. Somalia is now entering this competition and is already seems chosen destructive competition.

Eritrea choice is if they cannot block or pull down Djibouti, at least block Somaliland before the infrastructure is put in place. If Eritrea does not do to stop Somaliland in this year, Eritrea can kiss good bye to any business of most of Ethiopia for good. Best Tool is Somalia.

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh has praised Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Ahmed  abi.

Friday December 21, 2018

Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh has praised Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed for his commitments to regional peace and prosperity.

Speaking at the closing session of the three-day meeting of Djiboutian Ambassadors and high level diplomats today President Guelleh praised the Ethiopian Premier for his deep-seated commitments and considerable success he has forged towards ensuring peace and stability in the region.

The President noted Horn of Africa, often in the vortex of ethnic or inter-state conflicts, is changing its wings and also aspires towards peace.

“What Good news and how not to rejoice?…Especially for our country,” he added.

The President also said his Government welcomed the considerable efforts of the new Ethiopian Prime Minister who blew up the lock that obstructed peace between the Ethiopia and Eritrea.

He also appreciated Premier Dr Abiy’s global activism at the level of the region, including the efforts he has made and the process of normalization between Djibouti and Eritrea.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Mr Oodweyne I agreed with you  ina  cumar geele is a shrewd politician  he knows the interest of its country.  And that it depends on having a chunk of Ethiopia import  export trade. The problem is  he miscalculated he really thought that afewerqi  will  be for ever isolated from  the rest of Ethiopia. And also the port fall out  with  dp  world in the London court.  Also the cheese man sided with afewerqi. I think  geele will  survive ofcourse.  But   the  region is changing fast.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

There is a trade war with the Chinese as  we speak the U.S sino new cold war the Chinese have a long term  plan to surpass the U.S economic and millatary might especially the currency war, at the moment and the Chinese mass investment in africa especially in Uganda  Angola Ethiopia. The U.S. knows that Africa is the economic battlefield. And Djibouti is just trying to play superpowers against each other but the republicans won't have it  under no circumstance  will they allow that Africa will come under Chinese economic sphere. Djibouti and afewerqi won't meet eye to eye any time soon afewerqi is a totalitarian mililarry leader he believes in strength not in compromise he will do everything to punish his former foes.  It's not the type  a guy that easily forgives  And Qatar no longer mediates between Eritrea and Jabuuti. Since geele choose the Saudi alliance against the Qatari .The asmara dictator is really pissed how geele moved the  ars  maxakìim  And Sharif hotel to Jabuuti back in end 2008. And offourse Meles and geeles good friendly ties for nearly 2 and a half decades. Geele needs help he hasn't many friends left in the region. Only Somaliland can give him some breathing space. But than he has to change his attitude towards Somaliland  politically. Which i doubt he will  Because of the berbera dp world investment he feels he is losing hard currency. And afewerqi breathing on his neck rasdomaira under attack. Abiye  very close to  asmara. Even the powerless cheeseman is siding   with aferwerqi. Cali cabdalle  salax  is dead. No use of the sanca  axis. 

 

[Old_Observer]

On 12/21/2018 at 11:23 AM, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh has praised Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Ahmed  abi.

Friday December 21, 2018

Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh has praised Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed for his commitments to regional peace and prosperity.

Speaking at the closing session of the three-day meeting of Djiboutian Ambassadors and high level diplomats today President Guelleh praised the Ethiopian Premier for his deep-seated commitments and considerable success he has forged towards ensuring peace and stability in the region.

The President noted Horn of Africa, often in the vortex of ethnic or inter-state conflicts, is changing its wings and also aspires towards peace.

“What Good news and how not to rejoice?…Especially for our country,” he added.

The President also said his Government welcomed the considerable efforts of the new Ethiopian Prime Minister who blew up the lock that obstructed peace between the Ethiopia and Eritrea.

He also appreciated Premier Dr Abiy’s global activism at the level of the region, including the efforts he has made and the process of normalization between Djibouti and Eritrea.

Who needs PhD when you have this Somali-man who has patience when most don't,

Very matured and very diplomatic speak.

[Old_Observer]

21 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

  And offourse Meles and geeles good friendly ties for nearly 2 and a half decades. Geele needs help he hasn't many friends left in the region. Only Somaliland can give him some breathing space. But than he has to change his attitude towards Somaliland  politically. Which i doubt he will  Because of the berbera dp world investment he feels he is losing hard currency. And afewerqi breathing on his neck rasdomaira under attack. Abiye  very close to  asmara. Even the powerless cheeseman is siding   with aferwerqi. Cali cabdalle  salax  is dead. No use of the sanca  axis. 

 

There was something that Meles and if not mistaken Egal or Riyaale that was stated in public and open. Ethiopia under Meles would be the last country to recognize officially and formaly Somaliland as independent country, but Ethiopia would also be last country to wish ill to Somaliland. That is just the way things were.

Ghelleh learned something from Arta and never repeated the mistake. Mubarek was out and Meles was in and never looked back.

There is nothing Djibouti can do for Somaliland other than preventing any wars in the area which is common benefit to both.

As for Eritrea, which is typical African dictators whim run country, is no match for Djibouti.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The late Meles knew how to play his cards very well knew the Ethiopian  ethnics very well and had a clear understanding of the Ethiopian folks.  Also on Somaliland  he was very friendly  if you read the weakileaks  cables on Somaliland  Ethiopian  relations back In 2008 Meles  gave  a clear advise on how to sell the Somaliland  cause at the AU summits. On top of that Meles knew how to do deal with the xamasien dictator of asmara since they were former allies.

[Holac]

On 12/21/2018 at 9:51 AM, Oodweyne said:

But one thing I really appreciate Mr Guelleh about him is that he never allow himself to think things through with an "emotional sense" of it, like most Somali politicians the world-over.  He is a pass-master and a sheer "cold-calculator" of "his national interests", and he never allow himself to be taken-in by his "understandable feelings" of things (at any given moment) like the manner the long-time-dictator of Eritrea always acts. Given that dictator of Eritrea always acts in a rather impulsively and mercurially way, in most of the time, which is not what Mr Guelleh do.

Spot on. Ghuelleh is shrewd calculator waiting for the opportunity to spit on his enemies. 

[Old_Observer]

Ghelleh has accepted these realities:

1. Berbera will be competition, but is most preferred competition, since this will be purely commercial competition and also Berbera will not be able to take significant business from him. He is also convinced that Berbera is most preferred than Somalia ports or Eritrea.

2. His folks in Ethiopia were not happy with Illey, and are already unhappy with new one. With Illey was laicese faire kind, but with new one Ghelleh is keeping his distance. Even to Dirdhaba Ghelleh is telling his folks, if you are unhappy come here and live here and kiss Ethiopia good bye (no Ethiopian politics from Djibouti not even mention the name lol).

3. He has to avoid by all means what is happening in Sudan. There is the democracy freedom rule of law train in Sudan. Some of the demo already violent.

4. He is safe from Somaliland side. Since Somaliland also does not want change in Djibouti, nothing good can come out of it.

5. The war in Yemen has to end fast. That would change a lot in his favour. Regime change in France also would be a plus in Ghelleh favour. Globalists are not good for Ghelleh.

 

As Oodeweyne put it wait..wait..wait is best for him. Everybody else is so impatient, they are bound to make mistakes soon. The Ethiopians are going back to China for most things, cannot function without China.