Do the people of Somali Galbeed ready for the new Ethiopian change? How about ONLF ,Dulmi Diid and others

[galbeedi]

 

 

 In Somalia , we keep getting false changes that doesn't amount to nothing.  Other than the real societal change of the October revolution of 1969, all we got was collapses and false starts. In 2000, C/qasim came from Djibouti to lead the first real government after te collapse of 1991. IT changed nothing. After C.laahi Yusuf took over with help of Ethiopia and African forces, the Islamic Courts fought him and demanded change of leadership and a new government by the courts. Since they were the leading forces against the TFG, everyone , especially the UN , assumed that their take over will lead to  the end of hostilities. Yet, things got from bad to worse.

 

Hassan Sheikh became the new change, yet the biggest difference of 2012 was that  he was selected within Somalia territory. After few instituting buildings and the resumption of international flights in Mogadishu airport, thee weren't huge changes. As usual , another man with  a shining white horse was celebrated as the biggest change ever happened in  Somali in 2017. Just like his predecessor, he moved  few things.  He raised the profile of the country throughout the world, yet nothing tangible has changed in terms of security. When security in the capital got bad, his answer became blockades and the closing of main boulevards. Since they can't stop terrorism or bombs, their best moves are to create a green zone , ban public cars and trucks , and leave the rest of the city to the insurgents. 

 

Folks these are the constant changes of Somalia that mesmerize us every four years since the Carta government of 2000. A change which  similar men changing their shirts from black to blue. The red carpet and jetting to the international capitals by the new leader never changes. The rebuilding of the Somali army never materializes after 18 years. A thirty years change that never changes any thing.

 

Compare that to the slow moving Ethiopia that doesn't change much.

 

Throughout history change has been slow moving in Ethiopia. They are top down society and things doesn't change much from the top. If you look back for the history of Ethiopia, change in leadership takes usually twenty, thirty or even more than fourthly. Haile Selassie who was reigning since early twenty century as crown price, became king in 1930, and was deposed by the communist revolution of Mengistu Hailemaruim in 1974, almost 44 years reign. The Derg of Mengistu ruled almost 17 years before his collapse. Them Meles Zenawi ruled from 1991-2012 , another twenty years or more. In these country change doesn't come easily, but when it comes, it is felt like an earth quake. The king is killed, the TPLF takes the whole country or a man with fast horse shows up from the Oromo countryside and like a wind goes from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and the high lands in one day.

 

IAs usual,  2018 is the year of the change in Ethiopia and nothing will be the same after this.and Ethiopia . Observers will tell you that the kind of changing that taking place in Ethiopia usually take decades or more. First, Four or five years must have been consumed by the usual procured peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia;  then  borders should have been demarcated by experts after few years of negotiations and confidence building measures which  takes time. Second, prisoners are released, they are given time to leave the country and organize, and pass the parliament some liberal measures that reforms the system. Folks, that was the typical Ethiopian change people expected. The thirty year changes of the Ethiopia we have known took place in three months.

 

Ethiopia in and others are saying these new reforms by the new prime minister supposed to take ten or more years. Many are shocked and believe this train might derail soon, others are enthusiastic for the changes, while others say that this man is miracle man sent for Ethiopia.

 

Yet, when I asked Somalis who reside in Ethiopia or those who are politically connected, they are  not jumping up, while others are consciously optimistic. A friend I talked to told me that changes  were happening in Ethiopia since the death of emperor Menelik, yet it never affected positively for the  Somalis. It was always like the changes that took place  in colonial powers like Britain in the turn of the century while the colonial out posts remain the same.

 

In order to understand what these changes mean for the people of Somalil Galbeed, let us discuss the latest political moves made by Somalis both in Addis, Dire Dawa, and Asmara. I will divide them in three groups who are the leading forces to replace Cabdi Illey.

 

The first group is Called Dulmi Diid.

 

This group is congregating mostly in the Ethiopian capital and major diaspora cities like Minneapolis. Most of these were former allies of Cabdi Illey who in the early years profited from the system. They are largely Jijiga based although there are other people from different regions like Shiniile, Harowo , Godey and from the diaspora. Unlike the ONLF, they do not have any plans or political strategy other than to  replace the Illey administration. They are loosely connected with former ministers of the Illey government, while others are fed up of the tribal domination and oppression of the Illey camp. They were making noise in Minneapolis and Addis Abeba. So far no senior official of the Abiy Ahmed government had met them, and the prime minister has ignored them. In  my opinion, he considers them a pressure group who want to replace illey through hotel conferences and social media. They are sipping tea in Addis hotels.

 

While they rare reform minded and present different communities, they do not have any serious political weight or political muscle to change things in the future. They are decent civil society people that must take in the future deliberations of Somali Galbeed, but not the actual change makers. They can demonstrate in the diaspora and demand change , but they do not have future plans for the people of Somali Galbeed. 

 

The New WSLF , Al-Etihad and former members of the Illey coalition.

 

This group is mainly led by former members of Al Ithihad Al-Islam movement that made a deal with illey in 2008 and 2010. Some of these were former members of the ONLF who joined the Illey system and joined the security and political apparatus of Illey in order to survive from persecution of Somali regional states and Ethiopian forces in Somalia and the Zone. Some of them are good people who made a reasonable choice to became part of the ruling class in Jijiga. THeir leading members tried to influence Illey to distance himself from the TPLF and force him to  indirectly join the uprising in Ethiopia. 

 

The fact is that they were there with Illey until to the end. Now they are trying to join the bandwagon of change and create a new WSLF that has different members across the Somali clan landscape. The biggest problem with these people is that they are " Maxakamado" type players who are not deeply principled. Like their comrades in Mogadishu , they may just give up the Somali shop to Ethiopia in order to get the  power. Also, they do not have political manifesto or future plans for the region.

 

The ONLF in Asmara and around the world.

 

The ONLF had been crushed both by Cabdi Illey, Al-Shabaab faction controlled by Ethiopia, the Somali regional states and the TPLF. Even the Farmaajo government joined the crowd to decimate them, yet as of today, they are the only credible organization that has the strategy, goals and credibility to participate the future of Somali Galbeed.Unlike others, they have a freedom manifesto for the region.

 

Unlike others, they are not interested to replace Cabdi Illey and be another Somali entity that is totally subservient to the Addis power. They want seriously to negotiate the future of the region and its freedom. No one knows if that leads  to full autonomy, future referendum or independence. At the same , for the ONLF to be seen as the most prominent Somali freedom movement, it must take certain political and nominal reforms.

 

First, The ONLF must understand that the current structure of the organization must change and show transparency, Somali hood and representation of Somali Galbeed people. Most of all,  they must get rid of the so called, Dalka Ogaadeniya" or any connotation with tribal names. We do not buy at all the so called name by the colonials. Somali regional government is not a bad name. It keeps the Somali identity in Ethiopia.

 

Second, It must convene a new inclusive grand conference to consult among the  stake holders, and Somalis in the region. A political strategy must be prepared that must lead either independence, Future time frame for referendum vote or political and economic autonomy that is different than other regions.

 

They must also encourage other Somali groups who are vying for power to , especially those from the diaspora,  to support their agenda and demonstrate like the Oromo to force a real change.

 

Further more, they must avoid quick fixes or premature take over of the regional government without rigorous debate among the communities and stake holders.

 

In conclusion, this is the last opening of Ethiopia until probably 2030, so we must be prepared to take advantage as a Somali community, and we must not the victims of old  colonial  agenda that marginalizes Somalis in the 21st century.

 

At the moment, other the ONLF, I do not see any other Somali group that could lead to a real change in Somali Galbeed.

[galbeedi]

The ONLF could elect anyone among others. In fact, the new executive is from Shiniile. It is not necessary the leader to be OG community. I just want them to lead for the convention and organizing of the people, and they could elect whom ever is agreed upon.

[galbeedi]

They have called many others for reorganization and consultation. As the moment there are no other groups who could get tough on Ethiopia.

[Che -Guevara]

1 hour ago, Ducale said:

 

 

Jawar mohamed for president of kililka. 

Oh boy.

I guess you are okay with the Oromo now? What have happened to your Woyanes?

[maakhiri1]

West Somalia sounds good, latest, Ethiopia is as of the breakup Yuhoslavia, half a dozen countries will emerge, as of now, I am making my papers in the oil rich new country emerging in Killilka. 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somalis in kilinka shanaad are divided along regional ideological and tribal lines.  ONLF allot of people subscribe to their anti Ethiopian stance secession. How ever the new generation prefer to stay with in Ethiopia but with autonomy resources to be in the hands of Somalis  kilinka faces allot of threats  from gallas invading. Ethiopia wanting to dig oil and gas while there is no real good deal on the table.

[Che -Guevara]

10 hours ago, Ducale said:

 

Aqli kaneecoy, jawar oromu u dagaalama. ONLF beel bey matasha. Wax guulo la taaban karo oo maanta la tirsan kara ma jirto. Bal soo sheeg halganka ogaaden goob uu military ethiopia si geesinimo ah kula dagaalamay? Soomaali kale iska daaye kuwuu magacooda ku halgamayay ayuu bixin waayey. Dumarkoodi ayaa ka fakan waayey.

Faa'idadey soomaali galbeed onlf maanta ka heli maxay tahay? 

Daaco,

 

Your clan enclave fought for clan supremacy. What Somali cause did SNM fought other than Somalilanders?Just came out and say the real you hate them and rather see Oromo ascend to power than Somali or have the Woyane remain in power. Worse, you offer no alternative other than support for the murderous Iley.

 

Xaaji,

 

What new generation? Let's not fall for Iley's propaganda.

[Khadafi]

Galbeedi might be far fletched but he has historical truths on his side.  Why should Somalis fight against oromos when both people are cushitic and a large part of the oromos are islamic?. This might be a chance for all opressed people in that land to gain some historical justice  from years of abyssinian xabashi  opression. Lets look beyond   a few few skirmishes and see things with some insight. By the way waxaa yaab badan how somalis never engage in self-criticism.

What has made these oromos angry? Might it have been the TPLF using somali merceneries aka Liyuu police  to massacre them when they were on the streets demonstrating?  Why have not the Oromos engaged in skirmishes with Amhara region? I am not taking a defeatist stance nor am I being conspiratorial  here but  yaanan la deg-degin.  IF Abey Ahmed is not a  gaal is qarinaayo aka  amharisied oromo,  somalis have powerfull role to play. If he is  one  balaayo ayaa soo socoto.

Regarding the ONLF  they do have legitamate demands and is today just as you said the only viable  opposition  that has machinery to carry out an agenda but their methodology is flawed. Deeply flawed.  The scars from fthe 90-ties are still fresh in some people minds. What  probably unites  people in the Somali region is without a doubt  Soomalinimo, and Islaamnimo . What divides them is clan-based  political organisation that is  actually is trying to convince  other deeply suspicious Somalis to accept that clan-based name for the region.

Galbeedi,  ask yourself the sincere question. Would  a simple  non-og Somali  tnomad take up arms with other OG-somalis in a fight for "ogadeniya".  Forget about  other non--og somalis,  even sub--tribes within the og- nomads would be suspicous of each other. This is the reality on how much division that exists between us somalis.  While they, the Oromos are led by an Oromo with a muslim name, conspiring with an assimilated christian Oromo (Legassa guy).  By the way, Legassa guy was actually the one who put forth Abey Ahmed as a candidate to the EPRDF central commite. He was the one who demonised the somalis in the media. 

Soomalida gobolkaas daggan hadey talo rabaan, waxaan dhihilahaay soomalinamada ku noqdo.

 

 

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Khadafi I do agree with you that Somalis in kilinka are divided .but I do dissagree oromo are the biggest  threat to Somalis in kilinka  And they need to be fought. We cant just sit and wait for oromos to act civilised it's time  to.fight and  put these oromos in their place. Oromo is no  different amhara waliba an oromo with power is far more dangerous don't be  fooled by faith many of these oromos are still pagans or Christian ilaaah iyo nebitoona garan mayan gaalamadowdu wa in qori caaradi la iskaga celiyaa they know only the way of the gun.

[galbeedi]

Khadafi,

First of all Abiy is just like Obama. His family dad was a Kenyan Muslim, and also the man who married his mom after his dad left was also Indonesian Muslim. But, he was raised by his American mom. This Abiy Ahmed is exactly like that . His father is Muslim, but was raised by his mom who is protestant baptist which is dominant in South Western Oromo regions like Jima and Wallga. I also have seen some of his family members like one of his sisters wearing Hijab. He is a mix bag of mosaic and cross culture  of Ethiopia.

On the other hand, You did explain the whole issue of ONLF  in a reasonable and logical way. I agree that no sane Somali will join an alphabetical movement which is similar with those who have destroyed Somalia , like SNM , SSDf, USC and others to lead them . At this juncture, we are all aware that no one has head start, and the ONLF knows that they can't take the leadership without the consent of other Somalis within  Somali agenda.

THe advantage they have is that they could became the platform for future negotiations with the new Ethiopian leadership.Everyone must understand that the issue is not about just replacing Cabdi Illey.

On the Oromo issue, Since the death of Meles in 2012, Illey mixed well with TPLF security and intelligence apparatus  and became ruthless. The reason Somalis in Tulli and other regions beame defenseless against the Oromo militia is that the Liyu police not only decimated Somalis but also disarmed them and made them defenceless while the Oromo kept their weapons.

Many here including OO used to claim that the LIyu police is the barrier defence for the protection of the Somali region against others, yet time and again the Liyu has shown to be just a ruthless army that was created to oppress and murder Somalis. Some of the hate the Liyu, Illey and Somalis of the KIllil faced were mostly orchestrated from 2015 and after. After the uprising of the Oromo, the TPLF encouraged the ruthless Liyu police to take part for the crack down of the Opposition. When the federal police was stretched tin and deployed to Addis and surrounding area, the Liyu were deployed as far as the Amhara region to kill and subdue the opposition on the behalf of the TPLF. 

Furthermore, I have written in these pages while ago that most of the Somali armies including the Liyu, Somaliland army and others were trained to kill other Somalis. The Liyu police used to arrest people in Wajaale and kill nomads in Hawd and Gaashaamo, yet no one confronted.

These crimes of Illey made not only the Oromo, but other Somalis to hold a deep grudge against the OG. who are themselves the largest victims of the Illey rule. Those issues  might make it difficult for them to lead, yet the ONLF with different outlook and name should be the base to achieve autonomy and even independence in the future, because their platform and negotiotion points would strengthen the Somali case more than anyone. Abiy should know that he isn't just changing guard in the Somali zone, but he is facing hundred year old oppression that must end once for all. 

So far, no Somali group has shown there willingness to debate the age old of Somali self determination than ONLF. 

The Zone is diverse just the Somali republic and needs well thought unity and representation between the communities.

In the meantime , Illey had asked the local elders to convene a "Shir" in August 4. I do not know the strategy. Is he willing to transfer the power to his group or he is genuinely want the people to organize and decide their fate.

 

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Che  I was as recent as 2016 in jigjiga the city has changed allot since The last time I visited there. Ileey has invested allot in education or brain washing the youth.  The phrase the youth use  are we are new Ethiopia. But it's a real major problem because the youth are the future.  Abdi ileey is not a politician or a statesmen. But his sub clan support him especially he has groupies diaspora clanmembers who support him. The situation is not changing even if his contract with tplf is terminated. A more crazier thug will emerge. And the political reality in kilinka is changing.

[Old_Observer]

On 7/22/2018 at 8:56 PM, galbeedi said:

The ONLF could elect anyone among others. In fact, the new executive is from Shiniile. It is not necessary the leader to be OG community. I just want them to lead for the convention and organizing of the people, and they could elect whom ever is agreed upon.

galbeedi,

If you want fundamental or drastic change, don't expect it to happen with people who have a lot of buggage from the past. One big problem for ONLF was having leadership from either late Barre influence or those who split from WSLF.

With this kind you can achieve at best only minor changes that bring even bigger problems.

If you do it with Alliance with Oromo, then you are only pushing others to do changes by alliance with Amhara. Then the next cycle starts. It becomes clan issue as well and no end to it.

I know you share the disbelief that TPLF is gone. lol No body does even Eritrea.  That is why everybody says show me the dead body of TPLF otherwise they are tricky. lol

Kililka should also stay low. Nothing useful to be gained now at this time. This Arab brahula will blow over. Eritrea is actually in deeper problem with what seems succeess. Its getting in bad conflict with Sudan and Djibouti. Its getting deeper with Saudi and UAE which is not good for them in the long run and even now.

Ethiopia as always is changing because of outside requirements for the most part. Its easy to get a 100,000 Oromo to demonstrate if an Arab shiek wants let alone America.