Prof. Mohammed is a professor and historian of the modern Ethiopian state and a former Ethiopian ambassador to the European Union in Brussels, Belgium.

UAE has been a major failure in everything they were involved from Libya to Yemen. They spent tons of money with little to show for. They are now very involved in Sudan by supporting RSF. So far, the RSF had some success, but nothing that will shift the dynamics. Afwerki, the Sudanese Government, and Amhara are linked up too. They may end up being a bigger loser. But you are right everything depends on HSM.

Pland was in the middle of elections and the rest of the regional admins did issue a declaration. Pland has already reached out to HSM. Pland will likely attend the next national council. The role of the UAE depends on HSM, but there is a consensus the UAE has become a menace that can't be ignored. Farmajo chased out them during his tenure so kicking them out is not a problem, but their influence on the regional leaders is more concerning.

I agree they have to be removed from South and Central Somalia! The Kenyans are more interested in EAC and Ruto is positioning himself Pan-Africanist. They are genuinely concerned about Abiy's recklessness. The Kenyans also know they can keep quiet so that they offend no one.

Any initial war between Somalia and Ethiopia would be Macaswiley vs ENDF/Liyu Police.

How realistic it is to bring Eritrean troops to replace Ethiopians? Will Turkey and Egypt be willing to confront Ethiopia on the waters if the Somali Government and Parliament approve the presence? Can the Somalis be mobilized at a large scale to confront the initial incursion by Ethiopia into Awdal?

This young MP will always say as it is.

Things are escalating

Here's a good analysis SOMALILAND | A Crucial Breakthrough?

It is not working for me either.

I am not sure about the Sheikh. And speaking about impartial countries, all of them will favor one group over another, but that's the whole point of negotiations. I think Turkey, Kuwait, South Africa, Germany, and members of the Security Council would do. Even if Somaliland was to become an independent country, giving a naval base and port to Ethiopia would still pose an existential threat to all Somalis. It doesn't matter if we live in one country or two.

While all assistance is welcome, in the end, Somalia needs to build a modern and capable army. Any real war will be fought by Somalis. Countries like Eritrea and Egypt will assist with weapons and training.

There is no reason to be there. If Sland wants guarantors, impartial countries are needed. That said, Somalis as a nation are spoked, and rightfully so. Any negotiation can't be done with a man who gave a large chunk of Somali territory to an old adversary. The next Sland admin will be in a better position. And there is the issue of pro-union clans and even pro-Somaliland clans who now feel threatened by Muse's craziness.

Every Southerner is wondering why the ambassador was kicked out, airspace closed, and contingency plans made for replacing Ethiopian troops. That's why people are suspicious of HSM, and why some think he knew about this deal.

Abiy is their boy now till they can find a better replacement. The diplomatic corp hates the guy.

Mostly statements which don't mean much This is the important one: