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Everything posted by Illyria
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The author is simply discrediting PEC, Courts, and the Election system on the basis of their being created by Deni, which is not a sound argument. Further, the author is only regurgitating old debating points by the opposition, with most of the points he raises being conjecture, in other words, the only argument, which bears validity is Deni's mismanagment of the Federal MPs, and his tyranical tendencies, but from the sound of his reconciliatory speech, and recent actions, one could argue Deni, the rookie from a few yeears ago, has learnt a few lessons on the job, and is now a shrewd operator, the biggest lesson being compromising, and making deals behind the scene. One must not just write for the sake of doing so.
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The likes of Sir Mo Farah, and Cabdi Bile should be leading, and helping young aspiring athletes back home instead of recording joining the critique mob. Does any know why she was even there?
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Here is a summary. This is an eye opening, a brilliant piece of investigative reporting by C/razaq Terra, who provides an insight as to how the Fed. government mismanaged the fight against Al Shabaab, but even goes insofar as to suggest there being a seditious ploy to dismantle the Somali Army. His scoping and timeline are precise, if detailed with May 2023 being one of the deadliest, if not the worse. He hones in on where it all went wrong, as he compares the initial gains in the latter half of 2022 versus considerable losses in the first half of 2023, when it all went awry. His conclusion: a) There was a deliberate plan to sabotage the Somali Army whilst feeding Al Shabaab inside Army intel, b) A seditious ploy to destroy the Somali Army. Losses & Casualties: Casualties on the Somali Army side incl. ATMIS: Total deaths: 1,394 218 are of ATMIS majority of whom are of Uganda. Wounded: 554 Majority of senior Somali Army officers had been killed. Al Shabaab recaptured 85% of battle areas previously captured by the Somali Army. Weaponry captured by Al Shabaab: 365 heavy armory / armoured vehicles 14 heavy lorries for freight and cargo 16 ambulances 8 water tankers 12 luxury army officer vehicles 150 armoured vehicles destroyed, 82 of them equipped with surveillance & telecom equipment, radars, signal jammers etc 45 equipped with GPS.
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In his August 1st speech, Deni stated: Election shall be held on time, No intention of seeking extension, Intend to hold the election on Jan 8th based on political parties, Ready for election, and public service, Promise a timely and honourable transfer of power if unsuccessful, Commend and support reer SSC for the unity and self-determination. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=212612974761621
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Wait a second, what just happened? Did she? No, she did not? Having met with some Minsters, and Directors, I could say with confidence this speaks to a wider malaise, in the state of the nation, in ever discipline of ever technical category.
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I have been wondering why is there not a single rational person in the triangle? Even C/Qadir Jirde does not seem with it. They all seem unhinged, delusional, stoned, apostatised, or in a self-induced stupor.
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I concur much needs to be ironed out, but this I think is a good starting point, yet again the opposition has to brought aboard. I actually do not subscribe to the 5% threshold, and think if anything 2% is more than conditional enough. The same way I did not agree when UKIP gained 3.8m votes in 2015, and over half a million votes in 2017, but could not get a single seat in the Commons in 2017, and just a seat in 2015. On the number of political parties, I see no difference between 3 or 5, and if fractions are to be had, so be it. In democracy, nothing is worse than 2 political parties, as is the case in the US, albeit Independents could run, and more the merrier with coalition parties much better, as is the case in most European countries incl. Germany. I suppose you think the Electoral College in the US is also a good control measure. It might had some value in the 1700s, but I see no value in it today, if anything it is more of a hindrance to direct democracy. Addendum: Thus far, the fear of tribal association has been unfounded, as the three leading parties (KAAH, Mideeye, and SinCad) are of the same district (Qardho), yet KAAH is more popular in Sanaag & Mudug whereas Mideeye challenges SinCad in Bari, and KAAH in Mudug. Postscript: You may not know this, but the model SL adopted, incl. the 3 political parties, 10 year expiration etc, had been tested in El Salvador, and Nigeria by InterPeace and NDI, organisations, which assist Somalia with their democratisation process. you should glance at Gees's last book (name escapes me), in which he discusses the whats, and hows.
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TPEC announces 8 political parties. Youth party did not quite make the cut.
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It is interesting Jimcaale now openly aligning himself with the FGS. A notable slip, which speaks to his thinking, is saying "madaxweynaha waqtigiisu dhamaaday". Quite telling as to his non-dictum. And here is the Madasha, the political wing, wanting to remain relevant.
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Are there no wise traditional elders left in SL? When political leaders lack foresight, and the public is awfully naive to the point of stupidity, the end result is terribly what we see.
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Two killed incl. 2nd in Command of the RRU units (bullets seem to love HJ senior officers) with many injured.
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I thought so when I last visited both cities with Burco looking a bit depressed, albeit would note Borama lost population post SSC insurgence with many relocating to Jigjiga and Dirir Dhaba. Hargeysa is densely populous, if not as populous as Xamar, and I think it is much more than estimated, albeit without census, one could never go by voting numbers, which are always much lower, as has been observed in mature democracies, for instance in the US primary elections, just over 40% cast their votes with some rural states not even reaching the 20% mark. Presidential election have been in the 60 percentile in recent years. From what I have observed, Bosaso (Bander Qassim) is busier, with over half a million residents in city proper, with the number growing if surrounding villages are included, and might be slightly larger than Borama.
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By Biixi & Associates.
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Caarre is an idiot, who sold out his people. Fun facts about him: he was being financed by (let us not say by whom), and when the financing source was dislodged, incoming team, which had business dealings with Biixi & Co. dropped Caarre, to force an agreement with Biixi. Instead of engaging resistance forces, he left in the middle of the night abandoning young men in the wilderness, and absconding with the settlement. As part of the deal, he was handed an account number with a balance of a quarter of a million dollars at Dhiigshiil. He quickly used up half of it for a fresh set of teeth, a restaurant in Turkey, and a home, but the rest of the funds had been confiscated soon thereafter. In a nutshell, he is more of a liability, and empty shell to the resistance.
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Xasan Caynaanshe explains the root cause of the resistance from Gacanlibaax to Burco to Daalo to Ceerigaabo. Old SNM guards incl. Casayr C/Qaadir on the march. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=125854253905153
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Dear sir, Despite your idealism, which is rather admirable, how does one discuss Somali politics, rooted in its foundation on clan politics, without mentioning tribal names? You could argue against excessive use of it, but wholly pushing against it is rather reductive, if futile, methinks
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In its current standing, is not Borama more populous than Burco? The good old Xaji Cabdi Waraabe technique of subduing Silaanyo against Riyaale, eh? Trouble is there are no X Cabdi Waraabes, or wise men left.
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It is a good initiative borne out of genuine concerns, but I want to question the methods, means, and actors, yet am wishing reer Awdal the best of luck. Conferences in foreign cities, I like not. Unfortunately, Habro are left holding the loot on an engulfed ship on fire, and their kids are in denial, on a panic mode, clueless as to how best use fire extinguishers, or which fire to put out.
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This is how I read it: a) In the current election, existing political associations, nine of them in total, are considered political parties, and shall compete in upcoming Parliamentary, and Presidential elections. b) In the future, starting with the next election, there shall be no political associations, but any political party, which garnishes up to 5% of the Local Council elections, shall be a political State party. Further, there shall be no expired political parties, and if a political party ceases to exist, so it shall be, albeit if there were parties, which did not quite make up the 5% threshold, those might be allowed to compete. This requires revisiting. I consider the 5% cutoff rather taxing, if terribly high, and have no idea what it is based upon, yet am of the view, they shall do away with it in the years to come. The current system works, but comes with a variety of limitations, is flawed, serves the interest of the larger tribes, yet is unfair to sections of the wider community incl. the young, women, minorities, implants i.e. IDPs etc. Alternatively, I have been looking at the Chinese system of government, and I think it might suit Somalis better than the coveted democracy.
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Deni signed constitutional amendments into law. 27 July 2023 (Puntlandes) Madaxweynaha Dowladda Puntland Mudane Siciid Cabdullaahi Deni, ayaa soo saaray Sharci Lr. 02 ee 27-ka Luulyo 2023, kuna saabsan Sharciga Wax-ka-badalka 1-aad Dastuurka Dowladda Puntland. Madaxweynaha Dowladda Puntland Markuu arkay: Dastuurka Dowladda Puntland Qodobkiisa 80-aad farqadiisa 16-aad iyo Qodobka 139-aad. Markuu arkay: Ansixinta Golaha Wakiilada Dowladda Puntland ee Summadeedu tahay XGGW/DPL/41/2022, kuna taariikhaysan 26-ka July 2023. Wuxuu soo saaray Sharciga soo socda: Qodobka 1aad Golaha Wakiiladu waxay ansixiyeen Sharciga Wax-ka-badalka 1-aad Dastuurka Dowadda Puntland. Qodobka 2aad Nuqulada asalka ah (Original) waxaa lagu kala kaydinayaa Xafiiska Madaxweynaha, Xafiiska Xoghayaha Guud ee Baarlamaanka iyo Xafiiska Garyaqaanka Guud ee Dowladda Qodobka 3aad Dhaqangal Sharcigani wuxuu noqonayaa markuu Madaxweynuhu saxiixo laguna soo saaro faafinta rasmiga ah ee Dowladda Puntland, Wuuna saxiixay Madaxweynuhu, sidoo kale waxaa lagu soo saaray faafinta rasmiga ah. -DHAMMAAD-