Ethiopia To Attack Somaliland? Siilanyo Al-Shabab Cabinet? Worrying Signs

[Cowke]

Somaliland Predictions Bearing Out: al-Shabaab Terrorist Group Empowered; Ethiopia May React.

Written by Defense & Foreign Affairs

 

The Republic of Somaliland’s incoming President, Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo, on July 28, 2010, announced his new Cabinet, but the formation of the Government has done little to stem the internecine squabbling within the ruling Kulmiye party, but has opened – as predicted – the Government to the al-Shabaab terrorist movement. Significantly, the outgoing Pres. Dahir Rayale Kahin’s UDUP Government of Somaliland had held the line against al-Shabaab and the Islamists.

 

Dr Mohamed Abdi Gaboose, a radical Islamist and longtime associate of the new President, was named Minister of Interior and Domestic Affairs. He is a member of the Yunis sub-clan of the *****, and, as noted by Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis of July 14, 2010, has strong personal connections with al-Shabaab. His new position places him in direct control of internal security and intelligence, and thus overcomes all of the efforts of the previous Government to work with the Western states against al-Qaida-linked terrorist groups, such as al-Shabaab.

 

Pres. Silanyo’s medical condition – due to his advanced Type One diabetes – means that he is not in full control of the transforming political situation, but the trend of pan-Somalist and pan-Islamist activities already means that Somaliland has become less-than-reliable ally to neighboring Ethiopia. This has fully justified the faith of the governments of Eritrea, Iran, and possibly Egypt, in supporting Kulmiye. However, the Ethiopian Government – which itself had expressed concern that UDUP leader Kahin was not up to facing the challenge from Kulmiye – has been preparing to respond.

 

This is of prime importance to Ethiopia, given that Somaliland’s port of Berbera has become a significant trade link for Ethiopia. Military action by Ethiopia against Somaliland-based al-Shabaab terrorists is entirely feasible.

 

Meanwhile, Dr Mohamed Abdullahi Omar was named Minister of Foreign Affairs in the new Government, highlighting the fact that the new Administration places a low priority on foreign affairs, and intends to pursue its “foreign policy” within the framework of neighboring Somalia, Eritrea, and Iran.

 

The US Government did not send a representative to witness the transition of power from Pres. Kahin to Pres. Silanyo, and it now seems less than likely that Washington will help promote the sovereign recognition which Hargeisa had been seeking. The Kulmiye Government continues to claim that it seeks this recognition of Somaliland sovereignty, which is what most of Kulmiye’s traditional support base wants. However, the reality is that the “new Kulmiye”, now dominated by Islamists, will not seek to integrate with a broader international community.

 

In the meantime, al-Shabaab is working to expand its operations throughout the Horn of Africa and down as far as Burundi while beginning to expand its contacts with other jihadist and new-salafist groups throughout the Middle East, the Maghreb, and West Africa.

 

From GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Station, Hargeisa.

[NASSIR]

This is truly worrying development indeed..

[Cowke]

Nassir it will be interesting to see how ethiopia deals with silanyo. I think they may ask him to re-shuffle the cabinet a bit and get rid of a few guys and I think Silanyo will do it.

 

But that will open a nest-egg of troubles especially with the odweyne folks. So either way the ball goes it doesn't look rosy at all.

[Kamaavi]

Desert boy, you are not made of steel and stone. Take a break. Get away from the PC! It will give you a time to reflect.

 

Silanyo waxa looga yeedhay Jigjiga.

[NASSIR]

Originally posted by Cowke:

Nassir it will be interesting to see how ethiopia deals with silanyo. I think they may ask him to re-shuffle the cabinet a bit and get rid of a few guys and I think Silanyo will do it.

 

But that will open a nest-egg of troubles especially with the odweyne folks. So either way the ball goes it doesn't look rosy at all.

I don't think he will reshuffle his cabinet even looking at Awdalites' demand. It's lean and efficient cabinet, filled by heavyweight, veteran politicians and experts.

[Cowke]

Nassir well ethiopia could care less if the ministers are good for somalilanders all they care about is naturally their interests mainly berbera/shabab/onlf.

 

For example the foreign minister apparently wants to sell somaliland to eritrea/shabab somalia/iran which are all enemies of ethiopia existance 1 way or the other.

 

As for that gaboose guy he is well known terrorist affialiates he was dearly welcomed in burco which just shows the militants accept him after-all he stands for their policies or else they would've chased him out of burco when he visited.

 

Sad but the future doesnt look rosy for this silanyo lead govt. If the troubles just started within 2 days of him taking office lol the future looks very bleak indeed

[rudy-Diiriye]

looks like mr ****-an-yo (what a freaking name)

has stashed the high positions with all his very close relatives. i know couple who left LA and got minister positions!

 

Sad day in Sillyland!! burn-babe-burn.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

A poor and crap piece with no factual facts.

 

But any perceived threat that pisses off Xabashis, I am all for it.

[Kamaavi]

Originally posted by Cowke:

From GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Station, Hargeisa.

Waxan oo kale JB ayaa soo qora. Reer Burcoodka ayaa lagu waabsan rabaa.

[Jacaylbaro]

....... anyone for cuppa coffee ??

[N.O.R.F]

Cowke, take a deep breath, turn the pc off and go to sleep saxib.

 

Those of you who actually believe this is a document written by foreign defense organisation ayaaba ka sii daran

[ANTARA]

^^Good advice for Cawke, he needs to rest instead of being like this guy

[Jacaylbaro]

^ ^

[NASSIR]

Norf, I think it's an opinion piece similiar to Dr. Pham's policy recommendations. Actually, I have read him write critical of Kulmiye and Dr. Gaboose.

 

If Islamists swell the ranks of the ruling party, it won't be a bad image for SL. Turkey is a good example.

 

Btw, several popular "Somaliland" sites like QaranNews & SomalilandNet have carried this piece in their Opinion section.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Originally posted by ANTARA:

^^Good advice for Cawke, he needs to rest instead of being like this guy

lol