Will violence curb the TFG ? I think not. Take Rio city, South Africa Colombia...

[General Duke]

Many here have this idea that the recent low scale criminal acts in Mogadishu will some how derail the TFG.

 

There is one power in Somalia, it controls all of the 15 regions which make up Puntland and the whole south including the capital Mogadishu...

 

Now lets look at examples from the rest of the world in order to get a better picture and ask does violence of this nature stop a nation moving forwrad?

[General Duke]

Violent Rio a river of blood

 

 

By Anton Foek

SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES

 

 

RIO DE JANEIRO — One of the most beautiful cities in the world, this former capital of Brazil is rapidly becoming one of the most violent.

In "Civil War," a recent book by Dr. Luis Mir, an emergency-room physician in Sao Paulo, the author said there were 600,000 killings in Rio by gangsters and police in the past 20 years. Several leading newspapers corrected him, counting 700,000 homicides in that period.

Allowing for five leap years in those two decades, this averages 82 killings every day in Rio by Dr. Mir's count, or 96 homicides per day, if the newspapers are right. Another way of putting it is in killings per year per 100,000 population: For the entire United States, the figure is 10; in Rio de Janeiro, it's 55.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This level of violence is that of a war that continues after 20 years with no truce in sight in a city of 10 million inhabitants and some 400 slums.

"We are all in shock," said Nanko van Buren, a European aid worker in Rocinha -- with almost a half-million people, the largest slum in Latin America. He works with the Institute of Brazilian Innovations in Social Health (known by its Portuguese acronym, IBISS), a nongovernmental organization trying to improve living standards of the poor. At least twice a week, he dodges stray bullets and runs for his life.

[General Duke]

TOP TEN COUNTRIES FOR HOMICIDE, 2003 COUNTRY PER 100,000

 

(1) Colombia 63

(2) South Africa 51

(3) Jamaica 32

(4) Venezuela 32

(5) Russia 19

(6) Mexico 13

(7) Lithuania 10

(8) Estonia 10

(9) Latvia 10

(10) Belarus 9

[General Duke]

The government says there has been a 10% fall in the numbers of serious crimes since the introduction of democracy in 1994. But with murders still running at

more than 18,000 a year, or about 50 a day,

:eek: one survey showed that nearly 60% of South Africans feel unsafe leaving their homes after dark. The scale of the killings again drew attention at the weekend with the murder of the prominent historian David Rattray, who was shot dead at his home in rural KwaZulu-Natal.

 

source

[General Duke]

This is from 2003...Colombia murder rate soars..

 

A Colombian human rights group, the Permanent Committee for the Defence of Human Rights (CPDH), has just released its annual report on the state of violence in Colombia

COLOMBIA VIOLENCE 2002

32,000 homicides

5,500 politically motivated

5,000 right-wing killings

30 murders per 100,000

[Caano Geel]

Saaxiib, its an interesting hypothesis, but one of the points of a government is that it alone has teh monopoly to exercise power - violence being the extereme.

 

Anyhow, the TFG is not long in power and does not have resources, unilateral support, or infastructure, as such it exists as a government only in name. Therefore Haiti, where UN troops are battling it out with gangsters - because Jean-Bertrand Aristide's army was dispanded, a few years back and the gov. there has no resources or factional support is closer to somalia than Brazil or SA, where these are governments in the real sense of procedure, facilities and infastructure to exercise power.

 

Anyhow, in case of Haiti civil violence has stopped the nation from moving forward, lets hope that level of violence is not inflicted by the TFG and the various warring parties.

[General Duke]

Now ask yourslef are these nations not functioning, do they need a national reconciliation conference?

 

Should they add these criminals into their government, and give them some important posts?

 

One can say that more people died in Rio, Colombia and South Afric than Somalia today and yet they are functining.

 

Thus if these "insurgents" want to be taken seriously they need to take over at least a couple of regions before we can even start speaking about them in any fashion.

[General Duke]

Saaxiib, its an interesting hypothesis, but one of the points of a government is that it alone has teh monopoly to exercise power - violence being the extereme.

 

Anyhow, the TFG is not long in power and does not have resources, unilateral support, or infastructure, as such it exists as a government only in

Mr CG, the TFG has the control of all the existing infrustructure in Somalia, for exampel the Port and airport of all the 15 regions including those in Puntland, Kismayu, Mogadushu, Baidoa airport and so on.

 

It has started to collect taxes in Baidoa, Beledweyne, Afgoyee and soon all the other regions will follow.

The fact that it has the most guns in the country and man power with the defeat of its only serious rival underscores my point.

 

It has many promises from the international community, some world powers like China, and the US are very keen on the natural resource aspect of the puzzle.

 

If one wants to through in Haiti, I would like to add that Jamaica is as violent and has a functioning state.

 

My point again is simple, if the "insurgents" can not so far fresh from their defeat can not muster enough ment to take over and hold a single region then they can nor prevent the TFG to run the country..

[Caano Geel]

ummmm no your wrong.

So Brazil has a population of appr. 190 Million, SA and Colombia about 50 Million each, Somlia apprx. 10 Million. therefore proportionaly every death in SA or Colombia is equal to 5 in Somalia, and with brazil we have 19.

 

What this means is that your listed 30 murders per 100,000 in Colombia is equal to 6 murders per 100,000 in Somalia and South Africas, 50 per day you listed would equal to 5 per day in somalia.

 

Now we dont have stats for somalia, but if we did, i think we would get more than 5 violent deaths per day or 6 murders per 100,000.

 

Add that to the displacement, of people, the lack of organised security for person or property, healthcare, sanitation and all the other you can think of, and its clear why more people invest in or move to SA per year than back to Somalia.

 

Lets not even start to compare infastructure

[Caano Geel]

G.

a port isnt really infastructure, its an institution for commerce. Infastructure is heathcare, sanitation, roads, judiciary, etc.

 

We have a long way to go before whats left over from embezelling the tax collected on the head count of the goats the sea port and the qaad flights that land builds such things

[General Duke]

^^^

No saxib you are wrong and jumping around for no reason.. Re read the thread..

 

Rio and not Brazil dear lad was the example given. Go re read. Rio has a population equal to Somalia it has 55 deaths every day, it has had from 600-700,000 deaths in the last 20 years.

 

Also the figures given were for every 100,000 populations

 

TOP TEN COUNTRIES FOR HOMICIDE, 2003 COUNTRY PER 100,000

 

(1) Colombia 63

(2) South Africa 51

(3) Jamaica 32

 

Remember that Jamaica has a much smaller population than Somalia.

 

We are comparing violence and these nations are still developing, Rio is a symbol of Brazil which is one of the fastest developing countries in the world.

[General Duke]

CG, the ports are infrustructures and important one at that, in terms of infrustructure I was talking about roads, ports and so on. Like Eritrea and Ethiopia, the revenue for running the government comes from tax collections and notably from their air and sea ports..

 

Even Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland all rely on Djibouti port, Berbera and Bossaso. Hence the TFG now has control of all the cash cows of the nation, which will help it pacify the country and pay the salaries of its staff. A fact that a few bombs here and there and acts of homicide will not change..

[ansaar17]

just when you thought he couldn't get any dumber he surprises you.

 

what in the world do these countries have in common with somalia.

 

confused human, somalia has been invaded by its arch-enemy who ontop of that is a CHRISTIAN.

they received much help from the CHRISTIAN friends under the guise of fighting terrorism(islam).

 

they don't want to see a functioning islamic govt because it will influence the puppet govt they have in place in the Middle east. kinda like a domino effect they use to predict in vietnam.

 

somalians are MUSLIMS if you may have forgotten.

[Caano Geel]

Ok,

you've convinced me that any objective analyser woudl conclude they are better off living in somalia that Rio. Infact i'll be sure to tell this to my Brazilian work mate first thing tomorrow.

 

But just before i do, tell me 1. do your record say whether not the number of somalis killed in the last 20 years in less than or greater than 600,000? 2. When the World Economic Forum was counting the deaths in somalia (along with SA) what catergories did they list for somalia ?

[Socod_badne]

It's completely false to characterize the situation in Southern Somalia today as one of wanton violence. There's violence everywhere in Somalia... whats differentiates the current violence in Moqadishu, Baydhabo, Shabelle Dhexe, Kismayo et al is Ethiopian occupation. Some groups see this as unacceptable violation of their rights and opt to fight. Deal with it! Don't be coming up with incongruent comparisons with run-of-the-mill dysfunctional city violence.