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Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa

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Here's an excerpt of Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa: How Conflicts Connect and Peace Agreements Unravel. Another fascinating read from Chatham House.


Mbgathi outcome: the Transitional Federal Government


The IGAD-led peace process was initially conceived as a reconciliation conference between Abdiqasim’s TNG and its Ethiopian-backed opponents, headed by Abdulahi Yusuf. By the end of the long-drawn-out conference there was no trace of the TNG: Somalia was to make a fresh start under a Transitional Federal Government (TFG). A 275-strong transitional parliament, selected by Somali clans in proportion to their numbers in the overall population, had been appointed. However, the fact that all the clans were represented in the new parliament did not mean that the clan representatives in parliament carried any political weight in their localities.


In October 2004 this parliament, sitting in Kenya,

elected Colonel Yusuf as President of the TFG. The

dominant belief among observers of the process is that Yusuf ’s election was organized by Ethiopia. But there are other possible explanations. The ****** warlords who took part in the peace conference were hopelessly divided and fielded two candidates against Yusuf, enabling him to

snatch the majority of votes. Ethiopian sources insist that they did not bribe the transitional parliament to select Yusuf. But the common assertion that he was installed by

Ethiopia has become part of the orthodoxy by which the legitimacy of the TFG and Yusuf himself is dismissed.


Yusuf needed a leading Mogadishu man, from a ****** clan, to ease his acceptance in the capital. His first plan was to select Hussein Aideed, who had been associating with Eritrea. However, he eventually settled on the appointment

of Ali Mohamed Gedi as Prime Minister. According to

some analysts, this was at Ethiopia’s insistence. Gedi

selected a government that was representative of all the clans (including those who had boycotted the conference), and a lengthy government list was approved by parliament in early 2005. All these proceedings took place in Kenya. The external mediators and the backers of the process

intended that the TFG would lay the groundwork for

creating a federal system of government in Somalia. The framework was provided by the Transitional Federal Charter, drafted and agreed among a large number of faction leaders. It was to include the re-establishment of political, administrative and security institutions. A new constitution was to be drawn up and elections were to be

held for a new government to end the transitional period in 2009.

Read the full report here.

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It's interesting to see how Kenya, Ethiopia and others used the Somali-Sub clan system, previous clan feuds and the war on "terror" as a means to essentially control the Somali Political System! In others words, they cleverly made( with a bit bribery) a dowlad( with all their footsoldiers) for Somalis, whilst Somalis thought this was all a continuation of the sub-clanish power struggle. Geedi and Yusuf and others were seen as clan rivals trying to secure seats for their clans, but they were working for the same bosses! So, everyone cheered for the the strong men of their clan, oday reerka kursiga u doonay!


If those guys don't work, then you replace them with another agent who tries to convince the masses that he offers a different, " peaceful ". After that, they might even send an Agent with Gadh cas and xena! I suppose it should come as no suprise, since the Somali clan system is there to be manipulated( in the first instance)?

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