Africa’s population explosion is changing the face of the planet

[Deeq A.]

Early evening rush hour in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. Photographer: Arlette Bashizi/Bloomberg

The continent is home to about 1.5 billion people, a number that’s doubled over the past three decades and is predicted to reach 4 billion by the turn of the century. The key growth drivers: persistently high birth rates, improved access to medical care and plummeting infant mortality.

The surge, which comes as populations stagnate or shrink across much of the rest of the world, has the potential to transform global politics, international relations, economics, culture and ecology, according to demographer Paul Morland.

It’s an open question, though, whether the shifting demographic landscape is a potential boon or a disaster in the making.

In a worst-case scenario, Africa could slide ever deeper into poverty and political and civil strife, stoking mass emigration.

But it also has the potential to evolve into a global powerhouse, becoming a leading supplier of agricultural and manufactured goods, a major driver of consumption and economic growth, and a powerful voice in multilateral institutions.

Success will hinge on countries reducing fertility rates by boosting access to education and health care, and in tandem creating an environment for businesses and entrepreneurs to thrive.

That would increase the ratio of the working population relative to their number of dependents, creating a window for faster development.

Most countries already struggle to provide enough jobs, yet 1 billion people are set to enter the labor force in sub-Saharan Africa between now and the end of the century. Annual job demand is projected to peak at about 18 million in 2048, Bloomberg Economics’ analysis of United Nations data shows.

Nowhere is the challenge more pressing than in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s chaotic capital.

No-one knows how many people live there — the last census was conducted four decades ago. Estimates range from 15 to 20 million.

The vast majority lack access to electricity, clean water and proper sanitation, and new births and internal migration means the population is on track to more than double in five decades.         

Source: Bloomberg 

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