Farah Maalim urges 4-nation alliance to counter Ethiopia

[Deeq A.]

NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenyan opposition politician Farah Maalim has urged Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan to form a mutual defence pact to counter what he described as Ethiopia’s “expansionist ambitions,” as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stepped up calls for maritime access that have rattled the Horn of Africa.

In a series of posts on X, formerly Twitter, Maalim accused Ethiopian leaders of pursuing “arrogant adventurism” underpinned by “fake history and unfettered Western support.” He warned that Abiy risked accelerating the “disintegration” of Ethiopia through “careless expansionism.”

“Ethiopia is landlocked, but so are Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan,” Maalim wrote. “Landlocked countries don’t seek outlets to the sea by territorial acquisition. Negotiate with neighbours for outlets.”

He recalled historic clashes in the region, from Somalia’s 1978 defeat in the Ogaden war against Soviet-backed Ethiopian forces to Addis Ababa’s 2006 intervention in Mogadishu, which he said ended with heavy Ethiopian losses. “No Ethiopian leader in his right mind will attack Somalia,” he declared.

Maalim’s warning came as Abiy, speaking in Addis Ababa on Tuesday at the launch of his latest book Medemer, dismissed suggestions that Ethiopia was destined to remain a “geographic prisoner” without sea access.

“If there is any Ethiopian who believes that Ethiopia will forever remain a geographic prisoner, that person is a dead one,” he said, blaming “shuttered doors and isolation” for the country’s poverty.

While stressing that “conflict and war” were not solutions, Abiy insisted it was “not wise to assume that a country as large as Ethiopia should be handed to our children while encapsulated.”

Earlier this month, Abiy declared it was “only a matter of time” before Ethiopia regained access to Eritrea’s Red Sea port of Assab, describing the loss of a coastline in 1993 as a “historic mistake” that must be corrected.

Eritrea swiftly condemned the remarks as “reckless saber-rattling,” warning that they threatened to unravel the 2018 peace accord that ended decades of hostility between the two neighbours and earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

Senior Ethiopian officials have backed Abiy’s position. State Minister of Finance Eyob Tekalign stated that Ethiopia was “ready to stand strong against anyone who opposes” its national interests, while military officers described Red Sea access as a matter of “historical right” and “national survival,” emphasizing diplomacy as the preferred path.

Eritrea has rejected such claims outright, defending the 1993 independence referendum as an “inalienable” decision.

Tensions have also flared with Somalia since Addis Ababa signed a controversial 2024 memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, the breakaway region that Mogadishu insists remains part of its territory.

The deal offered Ethiopia a lease on coastal land in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence, prompting a sharp backlash from Somalia’s government. Turkish mediation led to the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, but relations remain strained.

Analysts warn that Abiy’s increasingly vocal rhetoric on Eritrean ports, combined with Ethiopia’s overtures to Somaliland, risks destabilising a region already beset by conflict, climate shocks, and economic hardship.