Dominance over the Red Sea Snd Gulf Of Aden

[Deeq A.]

Abdi Ali Barkhad
Hargeisa, Somaliland

The Villa-Somalia government is currently engaged in a purchasing spree for advanced military hardware from Serbia and Azerbaijan. This initiative comes despite a tight fiscal situation, as the government has a limited annual budget that often operates on a hand-to-mouth basis. The approved budget for the fiscal year 2024 stands at approximately $1.079 billion (USD 1,079,315,783). This budget, which was ratified in December 2023, allocates $569.66 million for recurrent costs—essentially the operational expenses necessary for the government to function—and $509.65 million for capital expenditures, which typically includes investments in infrastructure and military equipment.

The primary focus of the 2024 budget is enhancing domestic revenue generation, which highlights the government’s intention to bolster its economic standing. Notably, however, only about 33.3% of this budget is anticipated to be funded through domestic revenue streams. A significant 66.7% of the budget relies on external donor support, a factor that underscores the precarious financial situation in which the government finds itself.

Unfortunately, many of the anticipated donor funds have not materialized, resulting in substantial cuts to the support budget. This raises crucial questions about the sources of funding for the ongoing military acquisitions and ammunition purchases. It has become increasingly clear that the primary financiers backing these military expenditures are four nations: China, Turkey, Iran, and Qatar. The procurement process and the technical aspects of the military hardware deals are being facilitated by a team of military experts from Egypt, who act as brokers in this context.

The strategic motivations behind these countries’ involvement in Somalia are multifaceted. One major objective appears to be controlling key maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Additionally, there are broader geopolitical aspirations related to undermining the statehood of the Republic of Somaliland, allowing it to fall under the influence of the struggling Somali federal government. These developments are indicative of a larger narrative, where weak Western policies have contributed to the destabilisation and complexities currently observed in the region.

Strategic Objectives of the Coalition

1. Dominance over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden

The importance of the Bab al-Mandab Strait cannot be overstated; it is a strategic chokepoint that facilitates the passage of nearly 10% of the world’s trade and a substantial portion of global oil shipments. Control over this vital maritime route is crucial for any nation looking to project power and influence on the global stage. Achieving dominance over key cities and ports such as Mogadishu, Djibouti, and Berbera would not only enable a country to regulate shipping lanes but also to potentially leverage its position in diplomatic and economic negotiations worldwide.
2. Blocking Somaliland’s Recognition

The alliance forming between Somaliland, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates threatens to shift the dynamics of regional power significantly. If Somaliland gains international recognition, it could empower this alliance, potentially creating a new center of influence that challenges the status quo. By arming the government in Mogadishu, external powers attempt to keep Somaliland in a precarious limbo, preventing it from solidifying its independence and statehood, thus undermining its aspirations for self-determination and stability.
3. Undermining Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s geographical disadvantage, being landlocked, compels it to seek port access, making the Berbera-Zaila corridor in Somaliland particularly attractive. Such access is critical for Ethiopia’s economic aspirations and trade diversification. However, countries like Egypt, Qatar, Eretria, Iran and Turkey perceive this pursuit as a strategic threat to their own regional interests. They are therefore motivated to take measures that would deny Ethiopia a reliable maritime outlet, effectively curtailing its potential expansion and influence in the region.
4. Weaken Western and Gulf Allies

The growing reliance of Mogadishu on the support of the China-Turkey-Qatar-Iran axis indicates a significant decline in the influence of traditional allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. The prevailing attitudes and policies of Western powers, characterized by neglect and insufficient engagement, have inadvertently allowed these countries to capitalize on the situation, seizing the initiative to mold the regional agenda and diminish the positions of historical Western allies in East Africa.

5. Western Policy Failures

The limited approach of Western powers has significantly constrained their effectiveness in the region. Their focus has largely remained on counterterrorism initiatives specifically targeting Al-Shabaab, delivering humanitarian aid to address immediate crises, and issuing sporadic diplomatic statements that often lack substance. Importantly, their cautious stance towards Somaliland, stemming from a fear of provoking the Mogadishu government, has left Somaliland vulnerable to exploitation and aggression. This policy vacuum opens the door for influential external powers like China, Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and Egypt to reshape the Horn of Africa’s political landscape to align with their own strategic goals.
6. Implications for Somaliland

Somaliland finds itself in a precarious situation, being directly targeted by the maneuvers of external actors. The influx of military resources into Somalia is orchestrated not with the intention of stabilizing conflict but rather as a strategic tool of intimidation and leverage against Somaliland. There is a tangible risk that these external forces could encourage the Mogadishu government to provoke crises through aggressive diplomatic strikes or outright military actions. Should Somaliland fail to establish robust alliances, particularly with Ethiopia, the UAE, or potentially with Israel and supportive Western nations, it faces the grim prospect of encirclement and isolation, severely jeopardizing its quest for autonomy.
Summary in One Line

The investment in Somalia’s military capabilities represents a calculated geopolitical strategy orchestrated by powers such as China, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and Egypt, aiming to secure control over the Red Sea, thwart Somaliland’s push for international recognition, and undermine the influence of both Ethiopia and Western nations in the region.

Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a senior consultant. He has also studied international diplomacy and is a political analyst and writer known for his detailed commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analysing current policies in the region and is a strong supporter of the cause of the Republic of Somaliland. He can be reached at: tra50526@gmail.com

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