Arms, Asylum, and Abdication: How Somalia’s Leadership Is Fueling Instability in the Horn of Africa

[Deeq A.]

Arms, Asylum, and Abdication: How Somalia’s Leadership Is Fueling Instability in the Horn of Africa

By Abdi Halim M. Musa

Somalia’s federal government has become synonymous with dysfunction, corruption, and reckless geopolitics. From covert arms deals and diplomatic scandals to interference in neighboring Republic of Somaliland, the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is not simply failing its own citizens; it is actively undermining regional stability. The United States and its allies must respond with urgency before the Horn of Africa slides into a deeper crisis.

Mogadishu remains vulnerable to Al-Shabaab attacks, yet the government devotes more energy to acquiring weapons and provoking neighbors than addressing its own insecurity. Despite the fact that its control barely extends beyond parts of the capital, Somalia’s leadership continues to pursue militarized ambitions abroad.

In one telling example, Defence Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi was recently photographed in Serbia inspecting advanced weaponry. Serbia, known both for its legal arms industry and its shadowy black-market trade, has become a supplier of choice for Mogadishu’s opaque acquisitions. Weapons obtained through these channels often lack safeguards, with many diverted to extremist groups or resold by politically connected businessmen.

Credible reports suggest that some of these businessmen operate in close coordination with government officials, including Minister Fiqi himself, who allegedly facilitates deals to profit from arms resales under official cover. This web of profiteering and politics represents not only a domestic scandal but also a looming threat to regional security.

China’s Covert Role: Financing Without Fingerprints

Overlaying this picture is China’s discreet involvement. Beijing is said to be financing Somalia’s arms purchases while ensuring its own role remains hidden. The mechanism is simple: Somalia receives Chinese funds but is instructed to procure weapons from Serbia, allowing China to distance itself from any direct transfer.

The logic behind this strategy is unmistakable. Somaliland’s engagement with Taiwan and its growing ties to the United States have angered Beijing. By empowering Mogadishu, China strengthens a government hostile to Somaliland’s diplomacy, while simultaneously extending its influence over the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

This quiet maneuver is not an isolated act of support but part of China’s broader regional ambitions. The destabilization of Somaliland is a calculated attempt to curb its alignment with democratic partners.

Somaliland in the Crosshairs

The Republic of Somaliland, by contrast, has built stability, peace, and functioning institutions. Yet it increasingly finds itself the target of Somalia’s militarized provocations. Reports indicate that weapons acquired under these shady arrangements are being channeled into the Eastern Sool region, where Somalia seeks to install parallel governance structures and erode Somaliland’s authority.

Such actions are a direct violation of Somaliland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They form part of a larger campaign, reportedly backed by China, to punish Somaliland for charting an independent foreign policy and pursuing closer ties with the United States and Taiwan.

Despite these pressures, Somaliland remains committed to peace and democracy. Its outreach to Western partners should be met with concrete support, not left vulnerable to Mogadishu’s hostility.

Diplomatic Abuse: The Geneva Scandal

In June 2025, Somalia’s Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs dispatched 23 delegates to Geneva for the 113th Session of the International Labour Conference. According to the Horn Observer, only 11 returned.

The remainder reportedly used the trip as a gateway to enter Europe. Allegations include bribes paid for placement on the delegation list, with nearly half the names belonging to individuals who never attended the conference at all. Among them were four siblings from Southwest Somalia with no official role, allegedly included through corrupt intermediaries.

This scandal triggered a parliamentary investigation, with Minister Yusuf Mohamed Aden summoned for questioning. It exposed a troubling pattern: diplomatic platforms exploited as channels for personal migration and, in some cases, human trafficking.

Now, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is preparing to lead a 32-member delegation to the United States for the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. The group includes six ministers, MPs, advisors, and protocol officers—a display of extravagance from a government heavily dependent on foreign aid.

Insiders warn that, as in previous missions, members of this delegation may attempt to seek asylum in the U.S. or Canada. The trip’s real purpose? To lobby against Somaliland’s recognition and disrupt its growing relationship with Washington.

Such misuse of diplomatic privilege is more than embarrassing. It undermines Somalia’s credibility, squanders donor resources, and turns international platforms into vehicles of corruption.

A Call to the United States: Time to Act

The United States cannot remain a bystander. With Chinese influence expanding across the Red Sea corridor, Washington has a direct interest in supporting democratic, stable partners in the Horn of Africa. Recognizing Somaliland’s independence would not only reward its democratic track record but also provide a bulwark against authoritarian expansion.

Somaliland has consistently extended its hand to the U.S., offering cooperation in trade, security, and regional diplomacy. The time has come for Washington to reciprocate and accelerate recognition before the window of opportunity closes.

The risks of inaction are clear. Somalia’s unchecked arms imports, diplomatic misconduct, and systemic corruption threaten not just the region but global security. Weapons leakage to extremists, manipulation of international platforms, and targeted attacks against Somaliland all illustrate how fragile the situation has become.

In conclusion, Somalia’s leadership is faltering at home while destabilizing abroad. Its militarized ambitions, aided by foreign financing and entrenched corruption, pose growing risks to the Horn of Africa. Somaliland, by contrast, has demonstrated peace, democracy, and a willingness to partner with the international community.

The choice before policymakers is stark: continue to overlook Somalia’s dangerous trajectory, or act decisively to support Somaliland’s sovereignty and regional stability.

The future of the Horn of Africa—and the security interests of the wider world—depend on choosing the latter.

Author Bio:
Abdi Halim M. Musa
Political and Economic Analyst | Secretary General, Somaliland Intellectual Forum | Former Deputy Minister of Commerce, Somaliland
E-mail: halimusa4@gmail.com

Wednesday, 3rd September 2025

Qaran News