Somaliland’s Recognition is on the Line: Implications for Ethiopia

[Deeq A.]

Somaliland’s Recognition is on the Line: Implications for Ethiopia

In a recent White House press briefing, President Donald Trump indicated that his administration is exploring the prospect of recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Concurrently, the Somaliland Republic appears willing to grant the United States access to a naval base along the Red Sea as part of this potential arrangement.

Reactions have been swift and divergent. Somaliland’s Foreign Minister hailed the possibility of U.S. recognition, emphasizing the nation’s identity as a “peaceful, democratic state committed to lawful, voluntary humanitarian engagement.” He further noted that President Muse Bihi Abdi (Irro) is scheduled to visit Washington to advance the recognition process. In contrast, analysts in Mogadishu expressed skepticism, arguing that altering U.S. policy toward Somalia is unlikely. Should Somaliland achieve long-sought recognition, Ethiopia will be compelled to recalibrate its Horn of Africa strategy before the ensuing political cascade overwhelms its options.

Recognition by the United States is likely to set a global precedent, prompting other nations to follow suit at upcoming United Nations summits. Ethiopia, by virtue of proximity and regional influence, will face immediate pressure to define its stance. The delay in international recognition until now is largely strategic: states have historically waited for a decisive shift in political momentum before altering their own positions. Aligning prematurely could carry substantial diplomatic and strategic risks.

Somalia and its regional allies, notably Egypt and other members of the Arab League, are expected to respond with vehement opposition. For Somalia, Somaliland’s long-standing de facto independence of over three decades is less significant than the symbolic threat recognition poses—paralleling Taiwan’s contentious status with respect to China. The most pressing concern for Mogadishu is not merely Somaliland’s departure, but the precedent it sets for other Somali regions such as Puntland, which has demonstrated growing defiance toward central authority. Recognition would diminish Somalia’s leverage and complicate its aspirations for a “Greater Somalia,” including territories in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya.

For Somaliland’s citizens, formal recognition would validate decades of democratic institution-building and political self-determination. Unlike other Horn of Africa nations, Somaliland has successfully conducted repeated, peaceful elections and maintained orderly transfers of power. Its recognition is thus less a matter of territorial legitimacy than an affirmation of the people’s sovereign will. To continue subordinating Somaliland’s fate to Somalia’s failed governance would be both paternalistic and politically unjustifiable.

The central question for Ethiopia is strategic: what are the implications of U.S. recognition of Somaliland for its national interests? A sovereign Somaliland offers Ethiopia significant advantages. In 2024, Ethiopia itself explored recognition in exchange for maritime access and the establishment of a Red Sea naval facility. Beyond these pragmatic considerations, acknowledgment of Somaliland aligns with Ethiopia’s constitutional principle of political self-determination, enshrined since 1991. Strategically, recognition provides Ethiopia with diversified port access and increased leverage in regional logistics and trade. However, Ethiopia must carefully navigate this relationship to avoid scenarios similar to Djibouti, where the proliferation of foreign military bases risks undermining local sovereignty and regional stability while creating potential flashpoints for international competition or extremist activity.

Ethiopia is uniquely positioned to forge a robust alliance with Somaliland, combining geographic proximity with political foresight. The growing presence of the United Arab Emirates in both nations offers additional opportunities for economic and security cooperation. A coordinated Ethiopia-Somaliland-UAE axis could enhance regional stability, deter external threats, and serve as a model for strategic partnerships across Africa’s marginalized nations.

In sum, the potential recognition of Somaliland is not merely a diplomatic footnote—it is a transformative development for the Horn of Africa. For Ethiopia, proactive engagement and prudent strategic alignment could yield unprecedented geopolitical and economic dividends while reinforcing the principle of democratic self-determination in the region.

 

By Markos Haile Feseha (PhD), Researcher, Horn Review

Qaran News