Egypt’s troop deployment to Somalia delayed

[Deeq A.]

MOGADISHU, Somalia – The African Union has been forced to extend the presence of its Burundian contingent in Somalia for at least six months, a stopgap measure to prevent a security vacuum after a planned deployment of Egyptian troops was unexpectedly delayed.

The decision, made late Thursday by the African Union’s Peace and Security Council (AUPSC), highlights the significant logistical and political hurdles facing the new AU mission in the war-torn Horn of Africa nation as it continues its protracted fight against Al-Shabaab insurgents.

Burundian forces, along with police units from Ghana and Sierra Leone, were scheduled to withdraw by the end of June as part of a transition to the new African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). However, they will now remain to maintain operational strength on the ground.

In a communique following its 1287th session, the AUPSC stated that the continued presence of these forces was critical. The council, chaired by Uganda’s Foreign Minister Jeje Odongo, determined that all current military and police personnel “shall be entitled to UNSOS logistical support, for a period not exceeding six (6) months,” pending the full deployment of all troops from contributing countries to AUSSOM.

The United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) provides crucial logistical support to the AU mission.

Shifting regional alliances

The delay in the arrival of the Egyptian contingent is intertwined with the shifting diplomatic landscape in the Horn of Africa.

Egypt’s initial offer to contribute troops came earlier this year amid a severe diplomatic fallout between Somalia and Ethiopia. The crisis was triggered by a controversial Memorandum of Understanding signed in January between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland, which would grant Addis Ababa naval access to the Red Sea in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence.

In a show of solidarity with Mogadishu, Cairo fast-tracked a security pact with Somalia, with its troops originally slated to replace Ethiopian forces within the AU mission.

However, recent diplomatic efforts have mended the rift between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, leading Somalia to approve the continued presence of Ethiopian troops. It remains unclear whether the delay in deploying Egyptian forces is a direct political consequence of this reconciliation or stems from purely technical and procedural hold-ups within the AU and UN systems.

Funding shortfalls and security gaps

A severe funding crisis compounds the mission’s operational challenges. AUSSOM, which officially succeeded the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) at the beginning of 2025, requires an estimated annual budget of $166.5 million but faces a significant financial gap.

Major international partners, including the European Union, have indicated they are not prepared to increase funding. “We have nothing further to add at this stage,” the EU told The EastAfrican newspaper this week, following the AU’s failure to secure a UN funding mechanism that would have covered 75% of the mission’s budget.

In response, the AUPSC has resolved to double the AU’s own Crisis Reserve Facility to $20 million for 2025 and has instructed envoys to organize a resource mobilization conference with the UN, EU, United Kingdom, and other partners.

The security situation on the ground remains volatile. The mission’s struggles are underscored by recent territorial gains made by Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate. The militants recently recaptured strategic areas, including the Biyo Cadale base in the Hirshabelle state, which was previously secured by Burundian troops. Such events challenge the Somali government’s assertions about the readiness of its national army to assume full security responsibility.

The AUSSOM mission’s approved concept of operations (CONOPS) outlines a force of over 12,000 soldiers for the first half of 2025, which is set to decrease to just over 11,000 in the second half. An agreement reached in February allocated troop contributions as follows: Uganda (4,500), Ethiopia (2,500), Djibouti (1,520), Kenya (1,410), and Egypt (1,091).

The current framework envisions a gradual, phased drawdown of international forces, culminating in a complete withdrawal and handover of security responsibilities to Somali forces by December 2029.

However, the delay in deploying new troops, coupled with persistent funding shortages and a resilient insurgency, casts a shadow over this timeline and presents a formidable challenge to establishing lasting stability in Somalia.