Somaliland and the emerging Geopolitical alignment in Middle East and Horn of Africa

[Deeq A.]

By Kelvin Benny

In the last century, the Westphalian nation system has redrawn the political cartography across various parts of the globe. Shaped by colonial legacies, it has created new national entities across the world that didn’t take into consideration ethnic and other kinships across the border. The African continent is the best example of such a trend, where various colonial powers like the British, French, Portuguese, Germany etc have redrawn borders and created a new reality of states. Despite the reality of states, some regions with historical grievances have tried to secede from nations and create new countries as seen in the case of Eritrea and South Sudan, adding to the list of nations. While some regions have tried, but failed miserably resulting in huge death and destruction. Examples include Biafra in Nigeria, Katanga in Congo etc. There is another case of regions, that have acquired partial independence due to the weakness of the parent state. Such states with working institutions, armed forces and population are termed as “Quasi-States” and they lack international recognition as an independent entity. Examples include Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) in Cyprus. These Quasi-state entities also receive support from external patrons owing to strategic and ethnic reasons and this helps them to survive. Across the world, there are many such entities and in the current global politics, the existence of Quasi-states is a reality.

European colonialism in the Horn of Africa region has divided the historic land of Somali people into various territories like current Djibouti, Somalia, as well as some Somali inhibited regions that were added to regional countries like Ethiopia and Kenya. Despite this division, Somalia emerged as a nation state with homogeneous ethnic-religious makeup making it as a unique case of homogeneous state in Africa. While the modern region of Somalia was an amalgamation of the Italian colony of Somaliland and British colony of Somaliland this entity acquired independence in the 1960’s. Somalia then went from a democracy under Aden Abdulla Osman Daar to a military dictatorship under Siad Barre in 1969. While his initial reforms were commendable, the ill fated Ogaden war with Ethiopia in 1977 changed the fate of Somalia and started ethnic and clan based civil war which destabilised Somalia. Post 1990’s Somalia began disintegrating with various warlords and militant groups controlling various parts of Somalia. While the northern part of Somaliland declared its independence in 1991 and acquired a more stable form with functioning democracy and other institutions. Thus from the instability in the 1990’s, Somaliland began to function as an effective Quasi-state with semblance of stability and progress. Encompassing an area of 1,77,000 sq km and with Hargeisa as its capital. Presence of institutions was a strength of Somaliland and it ensured peace and stability while many other parts of the Horn of Africa region were mired in various ethnic and other conflicts.

Since the passing of three and half decades after the end of the cold war, the Federal Government of Somalia (FSG) based in Mogadishu has faced various challenges from corruption, terrorism and failure of institutions. While many parts of Somalia are controlled by militant groups like Al-Shabab and face issues like poverty and violence. Somaliland remains as a Quasi-state with well functioning institutions and stability. The geography of Somaliland with almost 850 kms of coastline in the Gulf of Aden with many port cities has attracted the attention of many regional powers. The political stability and presence of institutions and better governance of Somaliland act as attractive factors for foreign investment. Many countries have utilised their geographical position to leverage economic growth by being part of the fulcrum of global connectivity and the examples include Dubai, Djibouti and Singapore. Various governments of Somaliland have explored such a potential to attract investment and expand infrastructure.

In the emerging geopolitical alignments in the wider West Asian region and Horn of African region, Somaliland is poised to benefit from the regional alignment. Firstly, Ethiopia, a regional economic powerhouse with a population of more than 120 million has recently signed a deal with Somaliland to develop and use the Berbera port in Somaliland for a period of fifty years. Being landlocked after the secession of Eritrea in 1993, Ethiopia aims to access sea outlets under the PM Abiy Ahmed. This deal with Somaliland is in return for recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia, which would increase the global legitimacy of Somaliland. Another power with strong investment in the region is the United Arab Emirates. Being an entrepot economy, UAE has expanded its maritime presence across the wider region including Socotra in Yemen as well as various port projects in the Red Sea. UAE has invested 442 million US$ in ports in Somaliland and the region is witnessing an axis between Ethiopia-UAE-Somaliland which will enhance the strategic value of the ports in Somaliland. Another regional dynamic which acted in the benefit of Somaliland is the outbreak of war in Gaza in 2023. Various authorities in Israel are exploring options to resettle some Gazans in Somaliland and talks have started on this. As per certain reports, the government of Somaliland is open to accepting refugees from Gaza in return for international recognition. Another factor which deepens an emerging Israeli-UAE-Somaliland axis is the possible establishment of an Israeli military base in Somaliland. The United States of America, under the Trump administration is exploring options to recognise Somaliland owing to its alignment with US national security objectives, so the wider Israeli-USA interests align with recognition of Somaliland. Considering a model of KRG in Northern Iraq, which is supported by regional and outside powers, it’s time for Somaliland to opt for such a mechanism as wider alignment of various regional and extra regional powers like Ethiopia-UAE-Israel-USA. Such an independent Somaliland would benefit from the logistical-military importance of the coast akin to Djibouti. Quasi-states exist across various parts of the world and they assist geopolitical aims of the patron state and in this case of an independent Somaliland, it would assist USA as well as other regional powers like Ethiopia and UAE to gain their maritime and other business interests.

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