Old_Observer

Saudi Oil burning: What will it bode for Somali people

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1. UAE and Saudi will completely divorce in the open

2. UAE, America will find a modus vivendi with Iran

3. UAE will cut down its involvement in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia

4. Revolution expected iminent in Egypt. That country cannot last a day without oil and dinar pumping from Saudi/UAE

5. Turkish and Syria will reconcile thus Turkish/Qatar being reactivated in Horn of Africa

6. Government of Sudan inviting Jewish community to return to Sudan

7. Djibouti has won by simply out waiting in patience. First Somali to win by patiently waiting his enemies to run out of steam

8. There will soon be a meeting Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland, in which Moddabe will either meet in person or send delegate. Agjar is too chicken to join.

9. Afwerki is communicating with his Houthi one time friends. Scared of being bombed his shanty conscript villages and 300 prisons. Houthis were his only buddies during the days of Abdella Saleh, Meles, Abdullahi Yusuf and Al Bashir. If it wasn't for Israel Afwerki had offered a port Assab to Iran. People have short memory.

10. The Moodabe effect has been devastating to Farmaajo, Abiy and Afwerki. SWS feels so humiliated now. GalMudug the same, Kililka the same. Sherifka of SWS is agains on the move and realignment has started in SWS.

 

As the oil burn smoke rises and one can see it from Somalia, Ethiopia....it will make people think what it means to them.

 

Israel if under Netanyahoo and America will sign defence pact formally as well. Iran, Turkish, Russia seem to be shaking things. UAE will buy Sukoi aircraft and Saudi are negotiating for S-400 most reliable defense against drones, missiles, aircraft...

Turkish are willing to sell the S-400 they have to Qatar and even Saudi since Turkish can afford to wait a year or two.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

How does Kenya fit in here?

Kenya figures mainly with Britain, China, India and partly America.

Kenya is at this time very close to Djibouti. Kenya has seen the childish activities of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea.

Kenya in Somalia can only be affected or influenced by Somalis, not by other countries.

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Apophis   

It means the return of the Fatimids.

The weak and corrupt Sheikhdoms are on their deathbeds. And this is to be celebrated.

I, for one, welcome the rise of Iran. They will re awaken the muslims from the corruption of the inb sauds.

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galbeedi   

Mr. OO,

it is nice to hear from you .

You raised good points. Especially #3 and 4

On 9/14/2019 at 6:03 PM, Old_Observer said:

.4. Revolution expected iminent in Egypt. That country cannot last a day without oil and dinar pumping from Saudi/UA

 

On 9/14/2019 at 6:03 PM, Old_Observer said:

3. UAE will cut down its involvement in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia

I like this one. The Egyptian dictator is getting 75,000 barrels of oil a month from the Saudis , and since 2013 has received 25 billion dollar grants. My God , Al Sisi is the enemy of humanity.

The skirt wearing fat gulf boys are done like a dinner. Saudi oil burning is money in the bank for all involved including the Saudis. Here in the Western Canadian oil country, the more it burns the more our wallets get richer. All in all, it is a blessing for everyone.

Even the  US of America had enough of these mess in the middle east. They had lost both prestige, blood and treasury by chasing these quagmire and listening the murderous and bloodthirsty neocons.  Uncle Sam is tired of these wars and want to go home. 

It is agood analysis except, this :

On 9/15/2019 at 12:14 AM, Old_Observer said:

Kenya has seen the childish activities of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea.

Isn't it Kenya playing games with Somalia?

On 9/14/2019 at 6:03 PM, Old_Observer said:

8. There will soon be a meeting Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland, in which Moddabe will either meet in person or send delegate. CAgjar is too chicken to join.

And this is your soft spot for the dying Dinosaurs of Somalia , the regional governments of Somalia. My friend those days are over. Cumar Ghelle will never meet Madoobe . Take my word.

Dhag Dheer Dhimatoo Dhilkii waa nabad.

We tried to save the Saudis from self suicide but they wouldn't listen. THey chose despotism and dictatorship.

 

 

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3 hours ago, galbeedi said:

 

It is agood analysis except, this :

Isn't it Kenya playing games with Somalia?

And this is your soft spot for the dying Dinosaurs of Somalia , the regional governments of Somalia. My friend those days are over. Cumar Ghelle will never meet Madoobe . Take my word.

Dhag Dheer Dhimatoo Dhilkii waa nabad.

We tried to save the Saudis from self suicide but they wouldn't listen. THey chose despotism and dictatorship.

 

 

Thank you. Same here.

Kenya in Somali affairs is always influenced by Somalis, almost never by other countries. The Kikuyu knows one fact of life. That is, the Somali nomad will not care if Bolton is in the white house or Boris Johnson in London or Trudeau in Canada. A small sub-clan is enough to create havoc in Kikuyu land.

Thus the Somali are always driving Kenya. Somalis have most influence.

About Moodabe and Ghelleh. My friend don't kid yourself. ONLF has buried the hatchet with Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland. They have already fully reconciled. Every Somali should know that ONLF no matter even at its weakest is always best to moderate Ethiopian leaders. ONLF also understands there was nothing all three enclaves could have done against Ethiopia in those days. ONLF never hide the fact that they were the closest to TPLF and never cut their communications even fighting.

Farmaajo has really disappointed Ghelleh. Ghelleh had exected for Farmaajo to be favourable to Abiy or Afwerki, but not go out of his way to try and overthrow or humiliate his fellow Somalis. Farmaajo has crossed the red line. Ghelleh will still be diplomatic with Farmaajo since he is SFG/President, but trust is gone.

Moodabe is now being supported and sympathised with all unlikely corners. Even those who dislike the man. The reason is he was a man and acted a man, even in the hands of Ethiopians.

Puntland lost the most in this Arab fracas. UAE did not do anything meaningful. Djibouti had many plans, but could not do anything, because of Ethiopia and Farmaajo. Turkish had plans to work there in Puntland once Mugadishu was settled and governed, since Puntland is closest and best positioned better than Suakin for both Red Sea and Indian ocean. Projects in Mugadishu slowed down, because of Farmaajo, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Unless there is a coup and somebody saves it, Egypt is dead. To everyone's surprise the Turkish may win Russia away from Haftar and be best positioned to reconstitute Libya. The British will be on their side. One of Sissi jobs gone.

 

 

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galbeedi   
46 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

Unless there is a coup and somebody saves it, Egypt is dead. To everyone's surprise the Turkish may win Russia away from Haftar and be best positioned to reconstitute Libya. The British will be on their side. One of Sissi jobs gone.

 

The exit of the SAudis and UAE from the middle east and Africa is good news. THere will be elections and peace in Algeria, Sudan ,Tunisia, and as you said Hafter could demoralize and disappear. The best news is the coming demise of Sisi.

 

Because of Makkah and Medina, we cared the stability of that land, but the demise of the evil kingdom might bring relief for millions. Can you imagine just last spring they were dumbing Turkish Lira to bring down the economy of Turkey. THey are really evil.

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galbeedi   

The most strange thing is the Saudis spent billions of dollars for anti missile batteries from America including the Patriot .If they can't defend the largest oil terminal why spend the money. Besides, the Houthis can't reach that far with 10 drones at once.

THis is strange. Someone is cooking something. The treacherous UAE had made a deal already with  Iran and left the Saudis dry. Friends like these you don't need enemies. 

I think this is the work of Iran. since their oil exports are halted they retaliating. Even Rouhani said that if we can't export oil through the gulf , no one will. THese crazy Shia are heating things up.

  • Haha - That was funny. You made me laugh! 1

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On 9/16/2019 at 11:02 PM, galbeedi said:

The most strange thing is the Saudis spent billions of dollars for anti missile batteries from America including the Patriot .If they can't defend the largest oil terminal why spend the money. Besides, the Houthis can't reach that far with 10 drones at once.

THis is strange. Someone is cooking something. The treacherous UAE had made a deal already with  Iran and left the Saudis dry. Friends like these you don't need enemies. 

I think this is the work of Iran. since their oil exports are halted they retaliating. Even Rouhani said that if we can't export oil through the gulf , no one will. THese crazy Shia are heating things up.

Arabs had lost all dignity and self worth, but now has become in the open for all to see.

It has been 3 years since Saudis are talking with Russia for air defense system, yet the Turkish already received in less than 2 years from start to finish. The difference is that the Turkish are powerful enough, developed enough to be respected by both east and west.

Most people around the world now think that it was a false flag operation to get Trump to bomb Iran. The damage is big. Saudis now are seeking oil and oil products from Iraq and even Iran through UAE.

Here is an article that explains some of what happened:

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2988.htm

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When business was little shops on the ground people said:

Location, Location, Location.

Location has been both a friend and an enemy for the Somali.

 

USA being afraid of the Turkish is now training up to 3,000 Somalis. Unlike the propaganda we see here from some SOLers, these soldiers will always be kept separate, financed by USA and separate from Somalia Army.

The Turkish plan was completely different. The Turkish plan was to have one Somalia Army with special operations force inside it and under the army like most countries.

The American one is like the Army and Marines who are all land forces but separate and then yu have green berets..etc as well.

The Turkish one is most preferred structure for the cohesiveness of country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWN9yfo4KBg

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