Old_Observer

Ethiopia: Another drastic change of direction and re-alignments

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What a year it was:

America changes horse in Ethiopia (too Turkish, too Chinese, too Russian was America's reason) and assigned UAE to replace the Chinese with money, to replace the Turkish with major development investments and military exchange, replace the Russians with arms supply.

America could not change horse, but can damage the grass in Djibouti through UAE and Eritrea. It looked successful on face book and internet, so much so that Somalia fell for it.

UAE drops a billion dollars on the table over coffee, promises 3 billion more guaranteed and promises major investments to continue

Saudis award diplomas to Abiy and Afwerki against Ghelleh's refusal to allow them to use Djibouti in the war on Yemen.

Afwerki pushes Abiy against Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland so far deep that Kililka quarreling sides got together and demanded a stop to this and restore the 30 year peace and friendliness beteween Djibouti, Kililka, Somaliland and Puntland in particular and all bordering regions of Somalia in general.

Afwerki again pushed Abiy to far deep against Federal system in Ethiopia to the extent that the Federal structure was named as Tigray/Afar/Somali making to divide the country and weaken its unitary system of a century old. The Amxara were celebrating and awarded "sainthood", "elect of god"...on Abiy and Afwerqi to vanguish the Tigray/Afar/Somali and restore Ethiopia to its "greatness" (where a million people perished in famine and starved by the government) unitary structure.

2019 just started and the face book and internet revolution has just come to grinding halt. Reality on the ground.

The Alliance band singing for Abiy Afwerki just split. The following questions came to a head. From Oromo, Sidama, Amxara in Ethiopia to Djibouti, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and most importantly Somalia in the Horn, small and big bombs started exploding.

1. Who owns Addis Ababa, Oromo or Amxara

2. When is Federalism going to be destroyed and unitary structure restored

3. When are regions to be forced to do education in Amxaric and stop using their languages in government and education

4. What is Ethiopia doing to restore unitary system in Ethiopia and Somalia just to make them same as Eritrea

 

The hottest issues in Ethiopia right now are:

Addis Ababa and Federalism

The hottest issues in Kililka are:

Relations with neighbor Somali enclaves (Djibouti, Puntland and Somaliland in the main but all other regions as well) and autonomy of the region

 

Abiy after so much hiding has to make stance clear and in both hottest issues came against the Amxara...face book, youtube the battle fields have had a melt down. Abiy cheated us is the battle cry. Since there is no furry as great as by one scorned, the "elect of god" is now overnight the "devil".

Welcome to Africa.

 

The pipeline from Ethiopia to Eritrea should have been an eye opener, to anyone with the smallest grey matter between their ears. Instead had become a blinder for last year, since so much emotion without reason. The debate among the reasonable was pipeline to Somaliland, Puntland or Djibouti, never to Eritrea. The start of the pipeline project last week killed all dreams and fake "greatness" of Afwerki and Farmaajo (as follower). Welcome to reality.

 

 

 

 

 

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OO,

The pipeline issue isn't settled yet. No major power or money is backing that pipeline to Djibouti . The shortest route is Berbera not Djibouti. The Eritrea route is difficult at the moment because it has to travel through Oromia , Ahmahra, Afar and even Tigray region who are restless these days.

It is given that Abiy must consolidate power,  especially the military and intelligence,  before he embarks huge life changing matters. If elections take place early next year he got the votes and will win comfortably.

The federal system will stay the way it is at the moment until elections take place.I do not buy the idea of the Somali Kilil keep talking about interference. Since when were people selected the leader? it was always appointed from the top and it will not be different this time unless election takes place. 

If Mustafe is removed , it shouldn't be a big deal in my opinion.Besides, he is officially the the vice president and caretaker.

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43 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

OO,

 The federal system will stay the way it is at the moment until elections take place.I do not buy the idea of the Somali Kilil keep talking about interference. Since when were people selected the leader? it was always appointed from the top and it will not be different this time unless election takes place. 

 

I am sure you recognize that federalism and autonomy for the Somali means a lot more than Illey or Agijar or even another elected president.

Presidents come and go, sometimes you will have bad ones sometimes better ones. What the Somali should always have is Education, Media and development/investment geared to nomads in terms of transitioning to agriculture and industry.

You are also aware that other Ethiopians were not primarily concerned by Illey deeds on Somalis. They were fuming mad that the Education, Media, development of settlements no matter how small, water works(not city) micro dams everywhere..etc was done in Somali language only and for most part under complete control of Somalis. The Liyu and the potential of having an army for future with small changes, was Illey no.1 "sin".

You know that Illey is not accused of a single act done on Somalis, but of the disturbances which I think is false flag done by Ethiopia to overthrow him, before he transfers power orderly.

Autonomy no matter how small is most useful for the Somali.

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54 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

OO,

The pipeline issue isn't settled yet. No major power or money is backing that pipeline to Djibouti . The shortest route is Berbera not Djibouti. The Eritrea route is difficult at the moment because it has to travel through Oromia , Ahmahra, Afar and even Tigray region who are restless these days.

It is given that Abiy must consolidate power,  especially the military and intelligence,  before he embarks huge life changing matters. If elections take place early next year he got the votes and will win comfortably.

 

A lot of people were stupid enough to buy the pipeline facebook noise and UAE/Eritrea typical Arab talk, through Eritrea. China will invest, but not directly so that America does not get mad. It might be through Qatar or even Saudi Arabia (Ghelleh is working hard to stay in Saudi good books for protection from America/UAE, so far successful, no drastic action is being taken against him).

Yes Abiy can win, but the most important is win with whom. As you have seen in Kililka, if Abiy wins with Shide and the likes then the new group is out. If the new group is his ally then most other groups are out. Same if he wins with Amxara then Oromia is out, he cannot reconcile the two sides.

He got so threatened by Oromo, and had to make a statement and the Amxara are melting down even swearing already.

 

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