I share your concern with PM's statement; it was in appropriate and surely will have an impact on the peace processes; I also agree with you that presence of ethiopian troops in Somalia is an issue, if Ethiopia will not be out, when wonders what will come out from these talks; in fact, one might be led to think the Eretrian thesis is correct: the aim of the talk is to divide the opposition, not to solve Somalia's protracted problem. Your solution therefore, that Somalis should unite and drive Ethiopia out, as Eretria did long time ago, and not waste time on peace talks will be relevent. However, you assume that what Males says is the Ethiopain forieng policy towards Somalia; it may not be so, it may be intended for local consumption; If Males refuses to take his troops out when there is replacement for it, UN troops or more AU troops at earliest time possible, then, I agree with you Somalis should take the matter into their own hands. In the mean time, give peace chance; Malez is not a boss of his army in Somalia, there are other bosses, uncle sam is one of them, and not to mention his greatest sponsors, EU, so, give the talks a chance to see if they can take Ethiopia out from Somalia and allow Somalis to solve their old problem, that of power between clan-based groups, by creating institutions and environment in which government can come and go through the ballot box, as is happening now in Hargaisa, albiet unsuccessfully, even though the trail was good.

fahiye ina Alaaha jamiilun yuxubula Jamal,The Xadith goes: God is beautifull and loves beauty( rough transilation) he who appreciates beauty of the creation, also appreciates its creator; I tend to apprecitate beautiy both in men and woman, that is all, nothing more. I appreciate your freindly amendement; and there is reason why I used the terms I did: in Somalia, at this time, harsh language and realities is common place, taking its toll: diving between sisters and brothers, being positive is one way to repair broken relationships and build sense of common destiny. Look at it that way. Zola I lost my eye glasses, and did not pay another pair, even though I am short sighted. I do not see people's faces any more, so I think they are all happy, they turn out to be so in most cases, perhabs this is the reason why I do not want to have glasses, God knows the best. My afro is gone, I miss it: my job is baised towards it, so it goes. Dhubad Do not wory, may be reading the Noble Quran, made me famous; I do participate reading compititions with local Arabs around DC, but I did not win yet. I hear the school is up and running; I met number of individuals from the school, the most memorable one was a lady, whom I met while travelling between Nairobi and Mombasa in search of ressetlemen in the West; At first, I did not want to introduce myself to her, because I thought that would belittle me, and then people would say, were you in middle school when the civil war broke out? So, I did not want that to happen, she too did not want to have that feeling either; so, we ignored each other for a while, and then I could not resist talking to her, so, I introduced myself, but the subject of the school remained taboo as we conversed; she was at this time, quite a grown woman; in any case, we met several time, again, and talked about what we could have been should the civil war did not broke out, and discussed about plans in the future, since, then I left Kenya, and I came to US, I have never seen her again. I wish for her and for all our classmates a happy future. For those who have lost their lives during the dark chapter of Somali history, may they recieve the mercy of the God. I would wish sometime to carry out a survey and see how many people survived the civil war. In any case, let Mohamud Mire people rock and roll. Well I cannot stop thinking about that place, surely, I will go back one day; till then I will not stop working to make that place a livable place. So, that future generations, will sit in that cool class rooms as we did. And Somalia at long last will be free, peacefull and properous. We beg the Lord to grant us this wish, and we shall not stop working untill that becomes as real as writting on Somalia online; we hope also the same for all Somalis, in fact for all nations on this planet. Well I better quite now, and get back to work. Peace

I do remember Mohamed Arabi, he spoke very good Arabic,I hear he was brought up in Arab speaking countries, Mohamed Omer, remind me is he the tall and playfull boy from Qardho areas, Bari? I also remember Mohamed Diirie; the boy who had a better voice than me. But you have not reminded me about yourself. In any case, nice to see you on SOL.

Ayuub, dear, i am not whatever name you mentioned, I am trying my best to make some contribution. That is all. Peace action: I appreciate your suggestion; I will work on my movement. Thanks bro. Dhubad you got it old freind; I was student in Mohamud mire, you must have been in a class where every one' name was Mohamed; your formaster must have been macalin abdulahi, the bold handsome dude and his brother, I cannot recollect his name, he too was strikingly handsome, in any case, I met recently freind from that school who said this to me: I miss dear, that nice cool classrooms, and he said, arintaas ka waran? the dude was home sick. In any case, nice to see you, dear, please remind me yourself, surely, I will recollect your name, or at least try to do so. Wish all of you the best; most importantly, regardless of our political persuations, I wish all tbe best for the old home. yours

Naxar Nuugaaleed; thanks brother tell me a method that I can try; I try to radiate positivity, stay calm, and speakly honestly; I am learning, surely, i will try a different method, see I can be better. HornAfrique I am alive good one; let me know what you think Maskiin Macruuf We are tired too dear; in any case, I hope sangub ramaims safe; If I was there, I will probably, alerted him, in case, I see American diplomats moving around suspeciously. Just kidding. wish you all the best.

Please these clips, and they are wonderfull and fascinating: http://www.youtube.com/user/wanaagdoon Compassionate politics

I have written a play; a wonderful play, most people, American, non-Americans, Somalis and others, say it is going to be one of the greatest play in the Somali history; it does not offend any group be it it a political or non-political group I need people who have talent and can travel to Minneapolis and other cities where Somalis live in north America in this summer let me know thanks I am not sure, if the management would allow this, if they do not; I will find others and thank them Wish you the best Samatalis

I agree, Taliban, conservatives here in America persue policies that in many cases enrages many people in the Muslim world; it also makes happy others, such as shiites In Iraq, as well as Yusuf, Gedi and their patronage networks; however, any policy that does not rest on sound and dispassante analysis is doomed to failure, though it may suceed in the short term. Ngonge if Ethiopia is removed from Somalia, the ambitions of current leadership of the TFG would decrease, generating an environment useful for power sharing; I agree, however, mistrust wuold still prevail; that is why I suggest more neutral peacekeeping force that encourages clan-based groups to strike a deal and implement it, so that kids in Somalia could go to school, eat, get medical care and so on. American foreign policy indeed is agonising to many people; agonised people, as we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan do not respond in manner that US likes.

I have recently moved to DC to do a gratuate work in conflict and development in Horn of Africa; I plan to do a lot; as consequence, I need to creative and determined people who are interested in Political, economic and social development of Somalia; I have a lot of plans and modalities of implementations; I am open to dicussion; so, women and men please contact me so that we can discuss about these issues: haille60@yahoo.com Discussions by their nature of exploratory; so any topic is related to aforementioned topic is free game. I would also like to know the sort of opportunities that are available around this area; folks who have a greater experience, in this respect, are asked to provide information about how one can find place in this wonderful city.

What are the problems in Somalia as 2007 starts? There are two major groups, each group consisting number of allied groups, competing in Somalia and beyond. Let us discuss about the nature of these groups and their objectives; after doing so, the paper would suggest a practical solution and modality of its implementation. The most powerful group, competing in Somalia, is Ethiopia and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as well as number of allied factions such as the governor of Middle Shebelle, Mohamed Dhere and former Mogadishu Warlords such as Qanyare, Abdi Waal, and Abdi Qaybdid. General perception of the TFG in Somalia is this: it is an entity dominated by allied groups belonging to the clan of the President and the clan of the Prime Minister; it is no accident, therefore, that the president did not go to Mogadishu, for fear that he may be perceived as this: one clan capturing another clan and as consequence compounding already volatile mix of religion, nationalism, and old historical rivalry. Similarly, the general perception of Ethiopia in Somalia is this: Ethiopia is Christian dominated state that had demonstrated historical tendencies to annex Somalia and make it part of Ethiopia. Many also believe US and other Western States are part of Pro-Ethiopian camp: they are considered to be providing funds, weapons, training and actionable intelligence to enable Ethiopia and its allies to achieve their objectives. Objectives of Pro-Ethiopian camp Let us start with Ethiopia; some people believe the immediate concern of ruling elites and their allied groups in Ethiopia is to acquire more funds, weapons and legitimacy for the purpose of paying or crushing opponents and stopping democratization processes in Ethiopia: Males and his supporters simply want to stay in power. Secondly, ruling elites and their allied groups in Ethiopia are also worried about this: opposition groups (comprising mainly, Oromo, the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, and Somalis in Ethiopia) may acquire assistance from Islamists groups in Somalia and hence demand greater attention and as consequence increase the burden of sustaining power in Ethiopia; to prevent this from happening, the Ethiopian regime pursues policies of installing friendly government in Somalia. The shortest way of achieving this is to serve the West and in return secure funds, military provisions, actionable intelligence and legitimacy necessary for sustaining regime’ s hold on power in Ethiopia. From this perspective, ruling elites and their supporters do not have an interest in ending their involvement in Somalia any time soon; on the contrary, they would continue to build barracks in Mogadishu to start the second project: the project of allowing transitional federal government to consolidate power and as consequence develop the capacity to defeat Islamist insurgency, should this insurgency materialize. Objectives of the Transitional Federal Government Objectives of the clans constituting transitional federal government is obvious; Somalia is one of the five poorest countries in the world; thus access to jobs (such as those found in police, army and embassies abroad), resources( such as fertile lands and minerals) and opportunities( such as business contracts) is source of fierce competition. Hence access to scarce resources may be used, as has been the case in the past, to build a constituency of supporters that would allow the transitional federal government to establish and consolidate power; the shortest way to achieve this is to play the ‘terror card’ so as to secure funds, coercive instruments and international legitimacy necessary for the purpose of establishing and sustaining clan-based exclusive political, economic and military institutions in Somalia. Objectives of the West The west fears that some elements of the Council of Islamic Courts of Somalia (CICS) may harbor terror groups and individuals; it does so by giving Jihadists an opportunity to rest, recuperate, coordinate and plan attacks against western interests in Horn of Africa and beyond; because of this fear the west displays a recurring tendencies to remove this threat; state and non-state actors, such as TFG, warlords and ruling elites in Ethiopia are availing themselves to remove the threat. Objectives of the Islamist and their allies Anti-Ethiopian groups consist of various groups constituting Council of Islamic courts of Somalia, Somali nationalists, both secular and Islamists, clan-based groups and their allies, business people, foreign Jihadists who are committed to defense of Dar-Al Islam or the house of Islam and young activists committed to Islamic Utopia. Let us start with Council of Islamic Courts of Somalia and their supporters; their aim is to end the current Ethiopian occupation and as consequence establish an Islamic state; like TFG and its allied factions, they want to build a constituency that allows the courts to gain power and consolidate it; in return relevant constituency would be compensated by giving them access to jobs, firms and bundle of opportunities; the shortest way to achieve this is to articulate Jihadits and nationalist discourses so as to attract funds, weapons, foot soldiers and veteran insurgency fighters both from Somalia and outside Somalia for the purpose of defeating Ethiopia, crushing local opponents and consolidating power throughout Somalia. International Jihadists consisting mainly wealthy and young Muslim activists, see Ethiopian occupation of Somalia as an extension of wider war against Muslim peoples prosecuted by Christian dominated West. Moreover, international Jihadists may support CICS for the purpose of reciprocity: courts would enable them to secure an environment useful for resting, recuperating and planning attacks against western interests in Horn of Africa and beyond. Other Jihadists may support Somali jihadists in hope of ending direct and indirect Western occupation of Muslim states, and establishing greater Muslim state, khalifa, consisting of all Muslims. The objectives of Somali nationalists is quite clear; they want to end the Ethiopian occupation; the easiest way to do this at this time is to support the courts and as consequence engage in variety of activities useful in convincing Ethiopia to end its occupation. Given these divergent interests, is there a solution that may satisfy objectives of parties and yet lead to peaceful and lasting political settlement: I think so? The following elements constitute such solution; a) withdrawal of Ethiopian army from Somalia and other foreign forces such as International Jihadist and Eretria; b) genuine power-sharing between clan-based groups and their allies within the transitional federal framework; c) Peacekeeping Mission consisting of Muslim and Non-Muslim states that helps in reaching and implementing genuine power-sharing agreements between clan-based groups. How would these elements solve Somalia’s problem and more importantly how would they be achieved? Withdrawal of all foreign forces can be achieved by working with Arab world and the west; these entities enjoy a working relationship with Islamists in Somalia and the government in Ethiopia; Withdrawing all foreign forces from Somalia would have an acute impact on Somali politics; first, the TFG would lower its ambitions of establishing and consolidating exclusive political, economic and military institutions if Ethiopia withdraws its troops from Somalia and as consequence the possibility of genuine power-sharing deals between different clan-based groups within the transitional federal framework would be likely. Second, Islamists would also lack a target to shoot, since Ethiopia will not be around anymore ; moreover, clan-based groups and their allies that supported Islamists before would now have, assuming power-sharing agreements succeeds between clan-based groups, a peaceful mechanism to protect and advance their legitimate interest, hence they will not have an apatite to support a guerrilla movement. Neutral peacekeeping force consisting of Muslim and non-Muslim states would replace all foreign forces, hence help Somalis reach a genuine power-sharing agreement and implement it; moreover, they will allow the consolidation of representative and legitimate state institutions. This solution obviously, excludes Islamists; hence it may appear to be unfair: I concur, they should participate in the reconciliation and peacebuilding processes of Somalia. I think US and Ethiopia should talk to these people regardless their commitments to violence or ideology. Marginalizing them produces one of two possibilities; a) either they will vanish and hence cease to exist as group or individuals, this might be what US and others are hoping for, it is a likely possibility; b) another possibility is this: they will use whatever means available to them to convince US and others, in this case Ethiopia, to talk to them. The latter scenario is dangerous one: they may become part of global Jihadi networks and engage in suicide operations in Somalia and beyond. US and others, I believe, can prevent aforementioned deadly scenario by pursuing a policy of mutual concern: US should pursue its interest without any compromise while at the same time showing high concern for legitimate Islamist causes and addressing them to the maximum ability of the US and its allies. It is my judgment, and indeed the judgment of many, that the Islamists would respond. Samatalis Haille is graduate student at the Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Arlington, Virginia, USA. email: haille60@yahoo.com; hail0029@mail.umn.edu

I have delitd my previous note, I judjed that it was unfair and hence its removal; Now, I wonder if the Professor has taken into account new economic developments in Mogadisho and its suroundings as well as in other places such as Puntland; because current economic conditins( i, e the raise of large bussines companies, large urban cities, such as Mogadisho, Bosaso and Harigaise and daispora investement) is not the same as conditions that existed in ancient postoral communities, if so, the theories that explained chronic instabilities in pastoral setting may not be illuminating in commercialised, urbanised and globalized agropastoral communities. Moreover, the political experience of anarchy in Mogadisho, had given raise to new groups empowered by Islam and clans; Now this complex politic-economic and religious experience of the Somalis may not be cuptured by leneage segmentary thesis. Assuming however, it does, our good professor should have been more progressive by really thinking hard so as to find and sugget ways to take our tribally based communities into modern nation state; such writting would have been more fruitefull than recycling old conservative theory.

Shabunu, Muslim movements in middle east and else where call themselves islamist, in Arabic( Islaamiyiin); Alqardawi calls this name, he is famous Muslim scholar; second, if photoshops were closed, many people would lose bussiness, hence they will have difficulties findig ways to secure food and other necessities of life. Thanks Shabuna; by the way you have nice name

Early in 1990s some young salafis burned family photos, and regarded pictures as sin, however, mature Salifis have renounced this practice, they take pictures and see no problems. Aways, head of the Shura council and Sharif, head of the executives, both allow people to take their pictures, Indhocade does the same thing, however, some junior officers do not obviously see this way: they see pictures as sin hence the bussiness of picture producing is sin, photoshops therefore should be closed; infact today in Mogadisho, young officers in court uniforms did exactaly that: they have closed Sahafi photoshop and KM photoshop in Mogadisho. This is new development in my judjment; The Young Salafi groups would have two reasons to enforce their understanding of Sharia; first, they see this as fulfilment of God's will on earth: implementation of sharia law as they undertand it.Any postponment to this objective is seen as betreyal to the original cause : establishment of an Islamic state. Second, the enforcement would give young Islamist unlimited power, the power to intrepret the law and enforce it on the spot without any recourse to appeal, because young islamist consider this as desire of the Allah and therefore irreversable verdict. This implies also, that Aways, Sharif and Indhocade should stop taking pictures, or appearing in TV. Afghan taliban did not had TVs, they had radio, a sharia radio. We learn from the history of Sharia experiment in Afghanistan a lesson: the department of promotion of vertue and prevention of vice was essentially the Afghan internal adminstraiton: the department was the most powerful organ of the state. Young Islamist now have theological reason and an opportunity to capture power; noo body knows how others in the court would react to this new development. finally, shariff has recentally stated that they will go to khartum to talk to the government; this was direct contradiction to the position of the Aways; five hours ago we learned that the conference has been postponed: Islamic courts have demanded the postponement. Is this a way of acheivign a consensus? Now, I would like to know what you ladies and gentlement think before I write a paper. 1- What do you think young Islamist agenda 2- what do you think pictures are they Haram 3- what about people who would have no bussiness does the court have responsibility to generate an alternative way of making an income? 4- What if it affects large number of the population and therefore makes them incapable of sustaining life? 5- what do you think about Islamic law, does the application require Ulam Ijma, consensus? or very much clear? Your thoughts would be appreciated.

I have theory: Ethiopia was furious about the support offered by US to Somali warlords. They cannot do anything about US, but they can do something about MOhamed DHere. Another reason: Ethiopia wants the defeat of Warlords, just like other countries in East Africa because if Courts win they would groom themselves to fight against them with the help of the TFG. This explains why the Parliment has approved the bill allowing troops to come in. However, Ethiopia and IGAD is not happy that they were not invited in Newyork, but no problem. They are known to support anti-terror cause, however, they are broke, US is searching for them some resources so that they may now be employed in SOmalia at the cost of EU and US. If so, Yusuf should be happy, IGAD should be happy and warlords should gracefully commit sucide. However, their clans would now have opportunity to re-organize and join either side whichever suits them. There goes history.

I have been in that area for sometime after the civil war, so I know the area. Courts came as result of inability to deal with criminals, so courts were constructed to deal with criminals and contain armed conflicts, because if the criminal is not handed over to the victims soon you will have, as was the case, many victims, displacement and so on. In this regard, the courts aim to frighten the criminals, researchers in the west agree, to the sorrow of the victim and his family, that punishment works. Thus the killing was made public to frighten potential killers to the prospect of being executed publically. Unfortunately, as told, many others were also frightened who came to satisfy their desire of seeing dying man, since immemorial this desire was recongnised, people trying to see dead person, to their peril, the satisfaction of the desire came with a price: recurring disgust and anxiety, mother nature dispalys a tendency to combine the sweat with unpleasant, thus whoever does not want the unpleasant, in this case, the disgust and recurring anxiety, must resisit his or her urges to see the dying. I have resisted to look to the dead, once I realised that the satisfaction of desire comes with a price: recurring unpleasant state of mind and body. Somali media realzing the desire of the people to enjoy the suffering of son of man have gave them ample teste to satiate their desire to view a suffering soul. I am suprised to learn that the parents have also yeilded to the desire to see their son mutilation; according to Somali websites they were present feasting on their son mutilated in public with a knife. Not strange indeed, if one realizes that it is difficult not to yeild to pressures of urges for satisfaction!

And we may conclude our discussion; I have benifited from input; Oodwayne( which reminds me the place where most feirce opponents of Igal adminstration were based; your comments was engliteghtng. Xinfanin, good to discuss with you: your comments was excellent, and our good Hornafrik was wonderfull too; your comments warmed my heart, thanks again. Duke, Jaylani and others, nice talking to you. We may now depart: kala qaraabta! My the lord of heavens and earth aid us in our quest for peace and everlasting freindship, Amen.

Look the man who is next to him, Mohamud Cumar Caddan, a member of the family who managee ceelmacaan port; sure the clann of Qanyare are not visible, and it appears to be a great mistake on their part.

Originally posted by Zaylici: Mr Xiinfaniin Indhocade and Gobaanle joined the war, while members of Islamic union courts have opted out, this would have alarmed you to the non-propitious omens, but you have rationalised by imphazing its politic-military necessity; at this stage, I agree with you that it is a political necessity, from the perspective of the Mullas, but would't you agree that it comes with a price? Clans who opted out and whose warlords are weakened aren't they in position to be flooded by their wildest nighmare and hallucinations? I think so, thus, support received by courts from clan militias though enavitable comes with a price, I am not sure if you are willing to appreciate the concerns raised by the pragmatic nature of Islamic courts in ralation to clan dynamics in Mogadisho. More alarming is the military presence of non-Islamic courts clan militia, such as Goobaanle and Indocade, at the highway that links northern Mogadisho to its immediate hinterland, warsheekh and other districts. This military phinominon fills Northern Mogadisho clans with fear and anger sufficient to incline them to support bloody warlords to escape from the fate that may be imposed by Mullahas who may resort to many detrimental acts as conditions demand; put yourself at the shoes of these folks, then you will appreciate their reservations and delimmas. This is the point that I have raised Mr Xinfanin, after discussing with some freinds in Mogadisho who were knowledgable with Mogadisho dynamics. The current arguments constitute a complex misunderstanding between clans in Mogadisho; such compex misunderstanding is usually a precondition for protracted warefare; that is why I was worried about the possibility of taking the disputes into the battlefeield. Unless you are so commited to your idiology, which holds for the majority of the people, I hope you will appreciate this complexity.

Mr Xiinfaniin Indhocade and Gobaanle joined the war, while members of Islamic union courts have opted out, this would have alarmed you to the non-propitious omens, but you have rationalised by imphazing its politic-military necessity; at this stage, I agree with you that it is a political necessary, from the perspective of the warlords, but would't you agree that it comes with a price? Clans who opted out whose warlords are weakened aren't they in position to be flooded by their wildest nighmare and hallucinations? I think so, thus, support received by courts from clan militias though enavitable comes with a price, I am not sure if you are willing to appreciate the concerns raised by the pragmatic nature of Islamic courts in ralation to clan dynamics in Mogadisho. More alarming is the military presence of non-Islamic courts clan militia, such as Goobaanle and Indocade, at the highway that links northern Mogadisho to its immediate hinterland, warsheekh and other districts. This military phinominon fills Northern Mogadisho clans with fear and anger sufficient to incline them to support bloody warlords to escape from the fate that may be imposed by Mullahas who may resort to many detrimental acts as conditions demand; put yourself at the shoes of these folks, then you will appreciate their reservations and delimmas. This is the point that I have raised Mr Xinfanin, after discussing with some freinds in Mogadisho who were knowledgable with Mogadisho dynamics. The current arguments constitute a complex misunderstanding between clans in Mogadisho; such compex misunderstanding is usually a precondition for protracted warefare; that is why I was worried about the possibility of taking the disputes into the battlefeield. Unless you are so commited to your idiology, which holds for the majority of the people, I hope you will appreciate this complexity.

Mr Olol, you really have made me lough; real hard. Rather than raising a points or invalidating my points and concerns that I have raised, you resorted to a wholesale refutations( hal bacaad lagu lisaay) on the basis of inneundos. True I may have insinuated a bais towards north Mogadisho, but that does not mean the points that I raised are invalid and therefore a product of clanish mind. I have gathered information about the areas that I have freinds. Why don't you enlighten us too about the feeling of south Mogadisho areas, and what is the general feeling, so that we may learn from one another and therefore improve our understanding of these manumental dynamics, rather than taking the easy way out?: charectersing my pointns as clanish thing, rather than refuting them. True, we may all be sick, as you have said, meaning, I suppose, that we are all baised to one side; I have never seen someone who is not without some perspective( impossibility of aperpectival thesis) and hence with some bais. This is a natural human tendency eminating from the fact that they are immersed in socio-economic and political conditions;for instance we worry about our families more than strangers. We therefore send money to them, rather than to strangers who are, in some cases, better suited than our families. Is that a baised?. Yes. is that bad?. No, at leat in so far as human culture is concerned. Thus, it is inaccurate to catogarise some concerns as clanish, and therefore end of the story. Rather the best way, in my judgment, is to accept baised tendencies as natural outgrowith of human conditions and then proceed to deal with them logicaly. Any way, Mr Olol thanks for the loughter. I really, have no grudge against southern Mogadisho clans; If I, sometimes, do, I fight against them ferociously before they appear in my writtings. I strive to do what I anticipate from others. So, I refrain from aggressing others to be save from their aggression. Let us hope that events would take a better course for Mogadisho residents and for Somala at large: Amen.

I agree with Duke, the adminstration should pay a particular attention to the issues of wealth; research have infomred us constantly, that wealth is the source of all connflicts. With this in mind, it would be approperiate for the adminstration to take the matter seriously and work out a deal with all communities concerned. Share wealth, if they do this matter would die an everyone would be happy.

I agree with Duke, the adminstration should pay a particular attention to the issues of wealth; research have infomred us constantly, that wealth is the source of all connflicts. With this in mind, it would be approperiate for the adminstration to take the matter seriously and work out a deal with all communities concerned. Share wealth, if they do this matter would die an everyone would be happy.

I concur wholeheartedly with you, Oodwayne, on your assesment on the matter. People do not lack historical memory;I hope they will use their experience to avert another disaster. However, it is possible that the new allience or Courts, may entertain false overoptimism: such as social revolution or American dollars. This may be sufficient, as I said to initiate and sustain the war for sometime, but this period would be detrimental to the civilian population in the city. There is general beleif in northern Mogadihso, that American money would make the difference; some claim money has already came, and it would continue to come; if this line is substantiated, then many would entertain this reassoning and thereby start and sustain an expensive war for sometime. It is not known however, wheather US would bring the resourcecs needed to undertake this expensive war. No, one it appears to me is willing to support such warlords who have blood in their hands, for this reason they are optimistic for no reason. On the other hand, Courts, may beleive that Non Southern Mogadisho clans would fight for them in the anticipation of Jannah and an end to suffering of Mogadisho population. This is a valid point, it is not known, however, wheather these groups would hang around when the war gets bloodier, protracted and complex, that is when pure clannism removes its mask and takes the driving seat to challenge its opponent clansmen. General Duke and Codetalker, you have both raised an important points; particularly, Codetalker your appreciation of femine and clan factor in this respect, is right, in my judgment.

Horn of Afrik, you have asked a good question; you are right sharif, head of the Islamic courts and Caddani are both from northern Mogadisho Clans, from this perspective, the claim that the current fight is against a particular clan rings false. But one you go a little bit deaper, you will see a different picture; it is has been confirmed, and I too did from different, unrelated sources, that the war was not participated by Islamic courts alone, but were joined by clan militia loyal to worlords from Kismayo areas. To put clearly, Mr Horn, the war is not now between Worlords and Islamic courts, if this were the case, it would have conforted th hearts of Northern Mogadisho clans, beleiving that the worlords deserve this fate, unfortunately this is not the case, Courts, to their detriment, have acceppted the support of clan militia, possiibly in fear of losing the war. This choice have changed the dynamics giving the war clannish picture rather than its admirable picture: warlords vs courts. Thus, they say, why be indifferent while my evil, which would be useful, in some cases, be defeated by another evil; from thier perspective, their warlord is lesser evil. I too Horn of Afrik wished that Islamic courts shouold relay on their own power and keep away from clan politcs; this did not happen. Moreover, as you are aware power and wealth in Somalia is distributed on clan basis; whoever his clan losses the war, regardless the cause and idiology, sustains perminent disability in relation to Somali economics and politics. Now, Northern Mogadisho clans face a delimma, a real one, as they confirm; should we allow Warlords to be defeated, if so are we willing to accept post-warlord politico-economic realiity. To give some little information, currently among southern Mogadishso clans dominate the Islamic courts: Ifka xalene, Warshada Caanaha, Shirkoole are all dominated by southern Mogadisho clans; wheras there is only onne court in the current Islamic court allience from Northern Mogadihso, Yaaqshiid,led by sheif Sharif; add to this the new non Islamic courts militia, such Indhocade, Goobaanle. If you do, the balance of power, obviously is on the side of Southern Mogadisho clans in relation to Islamic courts. This is indirect contrast to the nenw allience, majority of the warlords in the allience are from Northern Mogadisho clans. This balance of power is what worries Northern MOgadisho clans. Victory against warlords, though, desirable, leads to southern Mogadisho dominance in Mogadisho and beyond; this is what inclines these clans in the north to endorse the lesser evil. From this perspective, clinisation of the conflict and protracted urban warefare is enavitable leading to me beleive that this would be, if combined with femine that is looming in the horizon, a great disaster whose consequences would be felt for many years to come.

I have recently talked to freinds, relatives in North Mogadisho and Bermuda areas; the general feeling is that this is a war that would weaken the political and economic power of clans in Northern Mogadisho;the general reasoning is that the current access to economic sources would give them an economic power, followd by political power which would be available to dictate the distiny of mogadisho, its sorrounding and beyond; So, most of the people are now gathering resources to attack positions currently being accupied and beyond; the clan sentiment in northen Mogadisho is currently alarming; I would soon write a paper and dessiminate it throughout Somali and non Somali websites. My judgment is that this would be like 1991-1992 war, the reason being there is large military supplies and femine is about to come in full force; the combination of these forces( natural and human-made) did play a greater role in the disaster that engulfed much of Southern Somalia in 1990s. We learn from research that civil wars rarely end in decisive victory; with this in mind, I am afraid overoptimism of the sides would be sufficient to initiate the war and sustain it for sometime; when many perish, the civil war would end, followed by protracted societal depression. What do you think about the possibility of clanisation of Mogadisho Conflict and its aftermath political remifications on Mogadisho and beyond.