Arafaat

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Posts posted by Arafaat


  1. 10 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    what makes u think a  dagaal fighting for ur country is considered xaq daro?

    Xaaji, let us for a moment follow this logic and dissect, if SSC-Khaatuma is a threat to Somaliland(incl its future and its aspiration) as you put it. 

    1. Physical Threat; SSC-Khaatuma has so far abided by its intention to stay within their clan borders and have proven they are in no way a threat to lands of neighbouring clans and people. So we can conclude SSC-Khaatuma is in noway a physically threat to the people of Somaliland.

    2. State Threat; Las anod was controlled for nearly 15 years by Somaliland, and even SL controlling Tukaraq the least 6 years did not bring Somalilands political aspirations (recongnition) closer or more viable. 

     4. Socio-Political threat; SSC-Khaatuma community hardly played a role in the socio-political make up of the Somaliland authorities, as Somaliland has been quite a western SL or D*** dominated affair. SSC-Khaatuma going it’s on way doesn’t have any impact on the dynamics, inter-clan and socio-political balance in Somaliland, we can conclude that the current SL tribulations preceded the conflict in Las Anod last year. And there we’re already 4 jabhads (Wabeye, Awale, Caare, etc) established in SL even before SSC uprising.

    5. Power threat; Loosing face and power (military and politically) is the main threat here. But the most mighty powers loose wars, and for what they loose in military face they compensate through political maturity by moving on from the conflict and seeking political ways to reassert their power and influence. Somalilands power and face were never based on military power, but on its socio-political ability and power to seek conflict resolution, mediation and compromises and play the long game and it’s not the first time SL military was chased out of certain areas. Loosing military face wise happened before to SL and also happens to the most power countries, but they make sure to compensate and install their political credibility, which is far more important for a country then its military prowess. Somaliland lost military because of SSC-Khaatuma, but politically it’s (risking) loosing solely of its own doing and certainly will loose all political credibility and ability if it chooses to attack SSC-Khaatuma in their own native lands. And loosing political credibility is the recipe for completely loosing internal and external trust, cohesion and confidence which certainly will 

    So now, taking to account all this following the rationele of threat, do you still assess that SSC-Khaatuma to be a threat to SL? And if so how? 


  2. 19 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    Tensions around buhoodle  Military build up happening this entire evening  maalimihi ugu dambeye eeh ramadan ba lugu jira samada na way furantahay . rag na wa is guraya  birtana wala isla kufaya

     

     

     

     

    Niyoow Ilaahay ma ka baqatid, dagaalkii hore xaqdarada wax kamaad Baran, ee hubka iyo ciidankaga la idin ka furtay. ilaahayna ogol Kama aha, anaguna ogol Kama nihin. 

    Maanta ma jiro ciidan u dagaalimiya oo u dhimaniya hogaan aan dan ka leheen oo ku mashquulsan boob,  ganacsi ka dhigtay dowladnimadii yaga oo isku taxay darajooyin military frontkana ka ordiya. 

    Marka iska faataxeyso oo ku duceyso wax sax ah. 


  3. 5 hours ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

     Ciiro is likely to win if everything goes as plan unless biixi finds a way to recapture laacanood and bring aqoonsi   in the next few months i dont see how his popularity can go up .. But we need to be sure if elections are going to happen. But sida saxda ah ciiro ba ku leh inu noqoda madaxweynaha cusub  

    I don’t see how waging another war on Las Anod and getting a fake aqoonsi paper from Abiy would get Biixi re-elected, or would ever remedy the colossal damage inflicted on the social contract of Somaliland. 

     

    • Like 1

  4. 14 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    You mean to Somaliland it self ,not jus the goverment IOG doesnt like Somaliland no matter who runs it  

     

    He is a threat to regime, because he is close with them, knows them personally, their secrets, travel with Djibouti passports, and has also many agents inside government and also private sector ows quite some dues to Djibouti. 

     



  5.  

    7 hours ago, Illyria said:

    I think included should be sycophants and sympathisers of war crimes and criminals the likes of Oodweyne, XX, hordes frothing and chanting "Muuse ciidanka fasax", online trolls.

    Do they realize that of all of their bank accounts can be freezes and confiscated? Even without a ICC warrant, a simple US state court can even freeze their accounts, there is no such thing as impunity for supporting crimes against humanities.


  6. On 3/8/2024 at 7:49 PM, Illyria said:

    Not only have Habashas deployed their militias to the Buhodle, Sool and Awdal border perimeter, but they also have been arming Bixiye with planes full of military hardware spotted (to be confirmed). More ganimah for Jamaahirta, I say.

    It seems the real land deal with the Habesha’s isn’t about a recongnition but military muscles to take revenge. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  7. On 3/9/2024 at 1:04 PM, maakhiri1 said:

    Jeegaan will never let fair and free election 

    Jeegaan should stay around even if it’s means to rob votes, as they killed the social contract and trust Somaliland was based on it’s only fair they bury it as well.
     

    Kolay wee dileen, kafantiina ha u tolaan. 


  8. 12 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

     

    The best possible outcome is genuine reconciliation and agreement among all warring groups. This will be a difficult task that would require serious men who are sincere in their efforts. With enough pressure from the West and the realization on the elites' part, that they will lose everything might prompt a change in their behavior. This is the most hopeful outcome.

    Abiy is the biggest obstacle. Unfortunately, the West believes there is no clear alternative leader that can replace him. The Emirate money and Turkish/Chinese are what keep in power militarily.

    Other groups that will hinder any peace process include:

    1. Oromo PP, this is the group that surrounds Abiy. Their support for him is strong. This is due to the fact they are now occupying the admin centers of the government and military.  They are amazingly corrupt and are robbing the country blind.

    2. OLA. Abiy tried to coopt OLA with the promises of positions within the government. They flatly declined his offer. Their only interest is free Oromia. They are most active in Western Oromia and Borana regions. They ran most of the rural areas and moved as they wished. Abiy tried to suppress with regional forces, ENDF, and drones, but it is winning OLA more fans.

    3. Amhara: The Amhara are most aggrieved. They sincerely believe Abiy wouldn't have defeated TPLF without their sacrifice. Their grievances are not only with Abiy. They believe they have unfairly been blamed for everything that went wrong in Ethiopia since the days of Melenik, and as such, every new admin would hit them hard. The Amhara can be divided into three groups, the first group wants to oust Abiy and revive the centralized Ethiopia where they ran everything. The second group has given up on Ethiopia. They come to believe a separate homeland for Amhara is a must.  This group supports the Fano movement. The third group is within PP. They once believed they could change the government within, but that hope has faded and many are leaving PP, and with their departure, PP has essentially an Oromo party.

    4. Ethiopian army: The institution is not what used to be. It is highly dependent on conscripts and it is beginning to look an Oromo party. Most generals and colonels are Oromo. It is no longer a reflection of Ethiopia. More and more soldiers are defecting every day.

    5. Tigray; The peace process between Abiy and TPLF has not worked out well for Tigray. From TPLF's perspective, their lands are still in the enemy's hands. Aid is barely coming into Tigray. They appealed to the AU to help in implementing the Pretoria Agreement.  TPLF still has two hundred thousand armed forces. Abiy wants them to join the war, but so far, they have wisely decided not.

    6. Eritrea: Afwerki feels crossed. He believed in a centralized Ethiopia with no ethnic borders, but he made the mistake of trusting an Ethiopian leader. He was blinded by his hatred for TPLF. I believe he is no longer vested in one Ethiopia whose leaders he can manage.

    There are three possible ends. The first and most difficult is what I mentioned above, true peace among all parties with acceptable political settlement. The second is an apocalyptic end to this ailing empire, a war to end all wars where new countries will be born.

    The third is a new alliance among Highlanders and Eritrea that can overwhelm Abiy and exile or kill him. The Highlanders and Eritrea are politically savvy enough to put their differences aside in pursuit of a bigger goal. 

    I don’t think the west can sufficiently understand this sort of complexity and fluidity in order to play a constructive role. So option nr 1 seems highly unlikely to materialise, which leaves us option 2 or 3, a failed Ethiopia or an Ethiopia reconquered by highland Xabashas. But I don’t see how highlanders would reassert their influence in the current Addis overrun by Oromo’s, surrounded by Oromo’s, and with an Oromo military elites in power. 


  9. 4 hours ago, Che -Guevara said:

    Any reasonable person knew this was not going to work. It had no legal basis and the alternative was war which Abiy knows he can't win.

    Even without any legality being there and ICJ striking down the agreement the second Somalia goes to the court, I fear that for the Somaliland regime this is outweigh by the the business prospectives of the deal and presenting a quick win for the electoral before the elections, irrelevant of the end result on its recognition.


  10. I hope your right. 
     

    P.S. But having no trust whatsoever in the regime and it’s Ethiopian advisors, this well could be a deflection strategy of Ethiopia to make everyone think that they’re walking away from signing the MoU, while they then turn around and sign it in the coming time. See the above video with the Somaliland committee continuing its work in preparation of the deal. 


  11. 30 minutes ago, Xaaji Xunjuf said:

    i doubt it  with out recognition ina bixii cant sell it to the people he will lose his head , 

     besides there is no benefit for Somaliland  recognition is valued more then anything  more then shares money or what ever concession one wants to give .

    Ethiopia once agains saves Somali unity  , by backing down from the MOU 

    From the perspective of politicians you would have been right, but from a businessman’s point of view, nothing is more important than a ‘mashruuc’. 

    Somaliland oo sahamineysa goobtii ay Ethiopia saldhig ka dhigan lahayd’. 
     

     


  12. Firdhiye: Waan la dagaalamaynaa Itoobiya haddii ay ciidan dul keento degaanada SSC- Khaatumo 

    Khamiis, Maarso, 7, 2024 (HOL) - Hoggaamiyaha maamulka SSC-Khaatumo, Cabdiqaadir Axmed Aw-cali Firdhiye ayaa uga digay dowladda Itoobiya inay soo faro galiso arrimaha gudaha ee degaanada maamulkiisa.

    Hoggaamiye Firdhiye oo maanta kumanaan shacab ah kula hadlayay fagaare kuyaala magaalada Laascaanood, ayaa sheegay inay jiraan warar sheegaya in ciidamo Itoobiyaan ah la dul keenayo degaanada SSC uu ka arrimiyo maamulkiisa.

    “Waxaanu aqbali karayno ma ahan, ma aqbalayno. Dadkayaga iyo dalkayaga annagaa ka masuul ah. In ciidamo kale la dulkeeno ama lasoo fara galiyo, ma aqbalayno, waana ka dagaalamaynaa,” ayuu yiri Hoggaamiyaha SSC- Khaatumo, Firdhiye.

    Firdhiye ayaa ugu baaqay dowladda federaalka Soomaaliya inay caddeyso mowqifkeeda Soomaalinimo. Wuxuu sheegay in looga baahan yahay in ay ka qeyb qaataan sidii dalka looga difaaci lahaa cid walba oo khatar ku ah midnimada dalka.

    Hoggaamiyaha SSC wuxuu ku amray ciidamadiisa inay heegan buuxda galaan, una diyaar daroobaan duulaan kaste oo kaga yimaada dhinaca Somaliland.