Rethinking Somalia’s Federal ‘Math’

[Deeq A.]

Nuradin Dirie appears to idealise South West State, overlooking its ongoing political and constitutional challenges.

Garowe (Commentary) — The amendment to the Provisional Constitution of Somalia has elicited resistance from many circles. To date, no one has produced a critique as timely or hard-hitting as the article by Nuradin Dirie, a former senior adviser to UNSOM and a 2009 Puntland presidential candidate.

Nuradin argued that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has alienated the Federal Member States (FMS). The FGS derives its primary advantage from Mogadishu, the seat of both the government and the bicameral legislature. In terms of fiscal federalism, Mogadishu generates the highest revenue for the national coffers.

Even when making allowances for the prevailing security situations and limited revenue-generation capacities of other FMS, the accountability structures built into federal institutions and their adherence to the Financial Governance Committee, create significant power imbalances. These dynamics often leave Federal Member States with a binary choice: be co-opted by, or repelled by, Villa Somalia.

The thirteen founding members of the Somali Youth League (SYL), pioneers of Somali nationalism.

This trend is further accentuated when a Federal Member State fails to abide by fiscal federalism rules, particularly regarding dialogue on financial governance, tax agreements, national resources and infrastructure cooperation.

“We don’t need to abandon our traditional power bases, but we absolutely must expand them to reflect the true geography of the Republic. The math of the old system no longer works” Nuradin writes. He does not fully flesh out what reforming the “math of the old system” entails. He proposes South West State of Somalia as the bridge connecting the North to the South, arguing that “the founders of the Somali Youth League (SYL) …built a nationwide coalition that drew immense, foundational strength from the Digil and Mirifle regions”.

Nuradin is only half-right. The Hizbia Dastur Mustaqil al-Somal (HDMS), previously Hizbi Digil & Mirifle (aka Hizbiya), which proposed a clan-based federal system during the Trusteeship period, predominantly represented what is now Lower Shabelle, Bay, and Bakool. Ultimately, the pro-unitary SYL outclassed Hizbiya to become the ruling party of Somalia from independence until 21 October 1969.

Today, South West State is mired in a political quagmire resulting from a failure to abide by the state constitution regarding periodic indirect presidential elections. Elections were due in December 2022, when President Abdiaziz Laftagareen’s term expired. Pressure from rivals led him to engage in horse-trading with Villa Somalia, supporting the incumbent government’s legislative agenda in return for staying in power indefinitely.

Nuradin appears to idealise South West State, a region known for agro-pastoralism in contrast to those Federal Member States with deeper roots in a purely pastoralist way of life.

Ironically, the adoption of a federal system has turned the peripheries into centres of centralisation. Puntland State of Somalia pioneered this trend, which has ultimately undermined the federal system within the Federal Republic of Somalia.  

© Puntland Post, 2026