Somali opposition faces pressure to accept election talks

[Deeq A.]

Mogadishu, Somalia — International pressure mounted Thursday on Somalia’s opposition alliance to accept a government offer for high-stakes electoral talks, as the clock ticks toward the end of the government’s mandate and the country still lacks an agreed roadmap for elections.

The United Nations, the United Kingdom, and the European Union have issued coordinated appeals urging the “Somali Future Council” (SFC)—a coalition of opposition figures and regional state leaders—to end a political standoff that threatens to derail polls scheduled for before the government’s mandate expires in May.

The diplomatic push comes as opposition leaders hold consultations to formulate a response to an invitation from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).

On Monday, the government formally invited the SFC to a “National Consultative Forum” set to commence in Mogadishu on February 1, aimed at resolving deep disagreements over the country’s transition to universal suffrage.

The invitation came just one day before a deadline set by the opposition bloc, which warned of a “dangerous political split” if the administration failed to outline a clear route to elections by Tuesday, January 20.

Race against time

Somalia is facing a critical deadline. The constitutional mandate of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration and the federal parliament is set to end in mid-May 2026.

Diplomats fear that a failure to reach consensus on the electoral model before then could push the fragile nation into a constitutional crisis or violence, distracting from the ongoing fight against Al-Shabaab insurgents.

The United Nations Transition Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) welcomed the government’s move, stressing the urgency of the timeline.

“We reaffirm our support for an inclusive dialogue that seeks to achieve a broad consensus on participatory, transparent elections before constitutional mandates expire in the coming months,” UNTMIS said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter), urging the opposition to “respond positively” and engage constructively.

The United Kingdom and European Union echoed these sentiments, with the UK mission in Mogadishu warning that consensus is vital for “Somalia’s stability & prosperity.”

The core dispute

At the heart of the impasse is a bitter dispute over the methodology and feasibility of the next election. Key points of contention include whether to maintain the current indirect voting system or transition to a universal suffrage model, as well as concerns over the timeline and the potential for term extension.

President Mohamud has spent much of the past year campaigning for a transition from the complex indirect voting system—where clan elders pick delegates who then elect lawmakers—to a “One Person, One Vote” universal suffrage model.

The government argues this is the only way to enfranchise the Somali public and move the country forward.

However, the opposition views the push for universal suffrage this late in the term as a “Trojan horse.”

The Somali Future Council, which includes the powerful presidents of the semi-autonomous states of Puntland and Jubbaland, as well as former national leaders, accuses the president of using the logistical complexity of a direct election as a pretext to engineer a technical term extension.

They argue that organizing a credible popular vote across the insecure country is impossible before May due to security and logistical concerns. The opposition demands a consensus-based model that guarantees both a timely transfer of power and inclusion in decision-making.

The opposition alliance had previously frozen relations with the central government, accusing the administration of unilateral decision-making. In late December 2025, they issued a demand for a broad consultative summit to address these concerns.

Government softens stance

Monday’s invitation from the office of Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre appears to be an olive branch.

In a press release, the government stated the February 1 forum would focus on “strengthening national unity” and “implementing a democracy based on consultation and compromise,” explicitly referencing the opposition’s earlier demands.

To demonstrate commitment, the government has appointed a ministerial committee led by the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Hassan Moalim Mohamud Sheikh Ali, to organize the talks. They have asked the SFC to appoint their own representatives to co-manage the agenda.

Despite the conciliatory tone from Mogadishu and the pressure from Western donors, the outcome remains uncertain, and the opposition bloc has yet to respond.

Opposition leaders are reportedly divided on whether to attend the Mogadishu talks without preconditions.

Sources close to the alliance suggest hardliners are demanding international mediation or specific guarantees, including the government rolling back constitutional amendments that already passed by parliament.

The European Union’s ambassador to Somalia, Francesca Di Mauro, warned that the window for negotiation is closing.

“Inclusive dialogue aiming at a broad consensus on elections before mandates expire is key,” the EU mission stated, adding they look forward to witnessing “constructive talks.”

If the council boycotts, analysts warn the political temperature in Mogadishu will rise sharply, potentially leading to the kind of armed fragmentation seen during previous electoral crises. For now, the ball remains in the opposition’s court.

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