Somalia Gears Up for a Showdown with Somaliland

[Deeq A.]

Somalia Gears Up for a Showdown with Somaliland

After waves of condemnation and threats from the African Union, the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation failed to dissuade either Israel or Somaliland from renouncing Somaliland’s recognition, Somalia has now played what it sees as its final card: provoking Somaliland into a conflict in the eastern Sool region of Somaliland. Ironically, this gambit is one of the very catalysts behind Somaliland’s unexpected diplomatic breakthrough.

For more than 34 years, Somaliland has pursued international recognition. Rather than engage Hargeisa in serious, sustained dialogue, successive governments in Mogadishu adopted a three-pronged strategy to block Somaliland’s path to statehood: stoking clan divisions inside Somaliland, dragging out talks until Somalia regained strength, and keeping Somaliland diplomatically and economically isolated.

None of these approaches worked. International mediation produced no meaningful results. Political and economic isolation failed. And internal divisions did not fracture Somaliland’s political consensus. As a result, Somalia turned to a more dangerous strategy: destabilization.

In early 2025, Mogadishu backed and armed militias in eastern Sool in an attempt to undermine Somaliland’s control of the region. Clashes erupted between Somaliland forces and local militias backed by Somalia, resulting in significant bloodshed. Somaliland troops eventually withdrew from parts of eastern Sool, after which Mogadishu rushed to establish a symbolic local administration it claims falls under the Somali Federal Government.

Somaliland chose not to escalate. Facing a coalition of powerful backers—including China, Turkey, and Egypt—providing Somalia with modern weapons and real-time satellite intelligence, Hargeisa decided that being dragged into an open war would serve Mogadishu’s interests far more than its own. Instead, Somaliland placed eastern Sool on the back burner and doubled down on its international recognition campaign.

When this strategy failed to break Somaliland’s resolve, Mogadishu tried again. In late 2025, with assistance from Djibouti, Somali officials helped ignite clan violence in Somaliland’s Owdal region along the Djibouti border. Nineteen people were killed and more than 250 wounded. Still, Somaliland refused to be pulled into a broader conflict.

Then came Israel’s recognition! Mogadishu erupted in fury. But after the initial outrage faded, a sobering reality became clear: despite loud objections from the African Union, the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, neither the United Nations, the European Union, nor the United States moved to oppose Somaliland’s recognition. That silence has emboldened Hargeisa to seek additional diplomatic breakthroughs—and left Somalia increasingly frustrated.

With few options left, Mogadishu appears to be reverting to provocation. The disillusioned President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose reality has not matched his hopes or plans, is expected to visit the provincial capital, Las Anod, of the eastern Sool in the coming days. The visit serves two purposes. First, it allows Somalia to present to the world the image that at least part of Somaliland rejects independence. Second, it is designed to provoke Somaliland into a military response—so that Mogadishu can reframe the conflict as a “local uprising” rather than a cross-border destabilization campaign.

Somaliland must not fall into this trap. Mogadishu’s leaders will come and go, but eastern Sool will remain part of Somaliland. In the long run, it will not be the use force that persuades people in the east to embrace Somaliland’s future—it will be economic opportunity, jobs, and integration into a growing and stable state.

Somalia is once again choosing the wrong path. Yet Somaliland also carries a responsibility. Recognition must be used as a diplomatic tool—not as a weapon against local communities or neighbouring states that oppose Hargeisa’s independence. If Somaliland navigates this moment wisely, it can turn confrontation into consolidation—and prove that its recognition marks not the beginning of conflict, but the foundation of peace and prosperity.

Faisal Deria

faisal_deria@yahoo.com

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