Geo-Strategic Rationale For Israel’s Recognizing Somaliland – Analysis

[Deeq A.]

Geo-Strategic Rationale For Israel’s Recognizing Somaliland – Analysis

By P. K. Balachandran

 

 

Somaliland is in the Gulf of Aden, a geo-politically and geo-strategically significant area, given the fact that the Houthis, based in Yemen and backed by Iran, have been posing a treat to Israel, the West, and world shipping.

Israel’s sudden recognition of Somaliland, an area previously a part of Somalia, is controversial for two reasons –  (1) many nations fear that this step will promote separatism. (2) recognition serves the geostrategic interests of Israel and the US, which face threats from the Houthis of Yemen backed by Iran.

The unstable conditions in the Gulf of Aden and the North East African coast cause concern in Western capitals, particularly Tel Aviv and Washington. The presence of China in Djibouti is also worrying.

Somaliland is situated on the Bab el Mandeb Strait, which lies to the east and separates the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden. Formerly known as French Somaliland (from 1896 to 1967) and the French Territory of the Afars and Issas (from 1967 to 1977), the area came to be known as Somaliland when it gained independence from France on June 27, 1977. However, it still hosts a French naval base.

China established its first known foreign military base in Doraleh, in Djibouti in 2017 after a Chinese company built the port there. It is close to other military bases belonging to France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Spain, the UK and the US.

The significance of China’s base in Djibouti is that it places China in the middle of one of the world’s most important shipping lanes between two strategic Red Sea chokepoints, namely, the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. More than a quarter of global shipping passes through this vital corridor.

China explained its presence in Djibouti saying that it is part of the international effort to combat Somali piracy and protect global trade passing through the Suez Canal. China’s Djibouti base can accommodate aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.

Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi called Israel’s recognition of his country as a “historic moment”. In a phone call to the Somaliland President on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was acknowledging Somaliland’s “right of self-determination”. He also said official recognition would be “a great opportunity for expanding” Israel-Somaliland partnership.

But Somalia furiously rejected Israel’s move as an “attack on its sovereignty” because it considers Somaliland as a constituent unit of Somalia. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud characterised Israel’s declaration as an “existential threat” to his country’s unity.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the African Union have joined Somalia in condemning Israel.

China said – “No country should encourage or support other countries’ internal separatist forces for its own selfish interests.” China saw this as impacting on its case vis-à-vis Taiwan. China does not recognise Taiwan’s secession which took place in 1949.

The US, however, defended Israel’s decision at an emergency session of the UN Security Council to discuss the issue, saying the response contrasted with the decision taken by UN member countries to recognise a Palestinian State earlier in the year – a move the US strongly opposed. The US said that while Palestine is a non-existing State, Somaliland has been existing since 1977 and therefore worthy of recognition.

Israel’s deputy ambassador to the UN, Jonathan Miller, told the council that Israel’s move was not a “hostile step toward Somalia, nor does it preclude future dialogue between the parties. Recognition is not an act of defiance. It is an opportunity for Somaliland (to grow).”

Somaliland’s Case 

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia after the overthrow of the Somali military dictator Siad Barre in 1991. The move followed a secessionist struggle against the use of military forces by Siad Barre’s government. Thousands of people were killed and towns were flattened by the fighting between Barre’s troops and the secessionists.

However, Somaliland failed to get international recognition thought it had acquired a functioning political system, government institutions, a police force, and its own currency. Home to six million people, Somaliland enjoys relative peace and internal stability. Somalia, on the contrary, is wracked by Islamist militant attacks.

Somaliland was a British protectorate – known as British Somaliland – until it merged with Italian Somaliland in 1960 to form the Somali Republic. Those in favour of Somaliland’s independence argue that the region is predominantly populated by the Isaaq clan – ethnically different from Somalians.

Israel’s Strategic Imperatives

According to the Israeli think tank, Institute for National Security Studies, “Israel requires allies in the Red Sea region for many strategic reasons, among them the possibility of a future campaign against the Houthis, Yemen’s Iran-backed rebels. Somaliland is an ideal candidate for such cooperation as it could offer Israel potential access to an operational area close to the conflict zone.”

Israel has also pledged to cooperate with Somaliland in agriculture, health, technology and the economy

Threat from Houthis

Israel repeatedly struck targets in Yemen after the Gaza war broke out in October 2023. These were in response to Houthi attacks on Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

In response to Israel recognising Somaliland, the Houthis warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a “military target” for their forces.

Plan to Settle Gaza Refugees

A few months ago, news outlets reported that Israel had contacted Somaliland over the potential resettlement of Palestinians forcibly removed from Gaza. Israel did not comment on the reports, but at the time, Somaliland said that any move by Israel to recognise its independence would not have anything to do with the Palestinian issue.

Countering Iran

The US-based Africa analyst Cameron Hudson told the BBC that Israel has recognised Somaliland primarily because it is trying to counter Iran’s influence in the Red Sea region.

“The Red Sea is also a conduit for weapons and fighters to flow up the Red Sea into the Eastern Mediterranean. It has traditionally been a source of support and supply to fighters in Gaza. And so having a presence, having a security presence, having an intelligence presence at the mouth of the Red Sea only serves Israel’s national security interests,” Hudson said.

Threat to Territorial Integrity   

Israel has been criticised by Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the African Union, Yemen, Sudan, Nigeria, Libya, Iran, Iraq and Qatar. In their condemnations, many of these countries have referred to “Somalia’s territorial integrity”.

The African Union has long been concerned that recognising Somaliland could set off a chain reaction, where separatists could demand recognition for the territories they claim.

“Regions could attempt to establish external alliances without the consent of central governments, creating a dangerous precedent that risks widespread instability,” Abdurahman Sayed, a UK-based analyst for the Horn of Africa, told the BBC.

However, countries considered to be allies of Somaliland, or sympathetic to its campaign for recognition, have largely remained quiet.

For instance, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which operates a military port in Somaliland, has not released a statement. Hudson told the BBC that the UAE is “very much aligned with the Israelis on this question of Somaliland. I think even now today you’re going to see an alignment of Israeli and Emirati interests across the entire Red Sea region.”

Ethiopia’s government has also refrained from commenting. Last year Somaliland agreed to lease part of its coastline to landlocked Ethiopia – a move that angered Somalia.

US and EU Reserved 

US President Donald Trump told the New York Post that he would not swiftly follow Netanyahu’s lead and recognise Somaliland. The European Union and the UK have also refused to recognise Somaliland’s independence, saying they support Somalia’s territorial integrity.

However, Somaliland thinks that US will recognise it. Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for it, including Congressman Scott Perry who last month introduced a bill proposing formal US recognition for Somaliland. This followed the publication in April 2023 of Project 2025, a roadmap for the second Trump Presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organisations.

The document mentions only two African territories in its sub-Saharan Africa section – Somaliland and Djibouti – and proposes “the recognition of Somaliland’s statehood as a hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti”.

Somalia had cost the US dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s when the bodies of 18 American servicemen were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu. Under Joe Biden’s Presidency, about 500 US troops had been stationed in Somalia – carrying out special operations and training an elite Somali force, Danab, to root out al-Shabab Islamic terrorists. The Americans have an airbase at Baledogle, north-west of Mogadishu, and conduct regular airstrikes against Islamist insurgents.

Senior Africa officials under Trump, including the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Tibor Nagy, and Africa envoy, Peter Pham, are energetic supporters of Somaliland’s independence.

Eurasia Review

 

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