Possible Israeli Outpost in Northern Somalia Leaves Ethiopia Strategically Diminished

[Deeq A.]

Amid increasingly unpredictable geopolitical developments, President Hassan Sheikh called for talks with the Somaliland Administration following Israel’s unlawful recognition of the secessionist entity on 26 December 2025.

Addis Ababa (PP Editorial) — Two years ago, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, was criticised for signing a controversial maritime Memorandum of Understanding with the Somaliland administration, a secessionist entity in northern Somalia. Today, Dr Abiy is confronting the consequences of those decisions, particularly the ramifications of a possible Israeli outpost in Berbera in violation of the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

Ethiopia has long sought access to the sea through northern Somalia. A naval base in northern Somali would not only ease Ethiopia’s landlocked constraints but would also position it as a strategic actor with a foothold in the Red Sea. Israel would stand to benefit from such an arrangement, given its long-standing political and security ties with Ethiopia.

Benjamin Netanyahu wants Israel to act as a midwife in the birth of a new global disorder.

In 2024, Ethiopia appeared willing to undermine the established global order. It now finds itself in a position similar to Somalia’s. This contradiction places Ethiopia on the horns of a dilemma about recognising Somaliland Administration. Such recognition would constitute a clear violation of the African Union Charter and could trigger the relocation of the organisation’s headquarters from Addis Ababa, assuming the African Union itself survives the institutional crisis that would follow Ethiopia’s hypothetical endorsement of secession in Somalia.

Ethiopia witnessed the emergence of the current global order nearly eighty years ago and has been a beneficiary of it. That order, however imperfect, is now being eroded by the very Western powers that once upheld it, particularly in the aftermath of the conflict in Ukraine.

Abiy Ahmed understands that secession in Somalia could reignite secessionist and irredentist tensions in Ethiopia.

If, as Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has  urged, the principle of the inviolability of colonial borders were to be abandoned to facilitate the fragmentation of Somalia, Ethiopia itself could become vulnerable to both secessionist and irredentist pressures. The precedent would be deeply destabilising for the Horn of Africa.

Alexander Stubb, the President of Finland, has argued that the antidote to the emerging world disorder lies in the West embracing a form of realism grounded in shared values and genuine partnership with the Global South. Under such conditions, the emergence of an inclusive, rule-based global order, sustained through multilateral dialogue, remains possible. Stubb refers to this approach as the “Helsinki Model”.

Secession in Somalia constitutes a serious threat to the global order. It undermines the interests of both the Global North and the Global South, particularly as it is being encouraged by Israel, a state whose current government openly opposes Palestinian statehood. Countries of the Global South, despite the shortcomings of the existing global order, have far more to gain from preserving the global order than from dismantling it. Ethiopia’s recognition of this geopolitical reality makes the success of secessionist ambitions in Somalia significantly less likely.

 © Puntland Post, 2026.