Feasibility study on Anticipatory Action (AA) & Climate Services in Somaliland

[Deeq A.]

Introduction and Rationale

This report presents the findings of an indepth feasibility study, commissioned by the World Food Programme (WFP) and conducted by New Access Consulting, to assess the enabling environment for institutionalizing Anticipatory Action (AA) and climate services in Somaliland. Faced with an escalating cycle of extreme droughts and floods, Somaliland is at a critical inflection point. The traditional model of reactive humanitarian response, while essential, is proving insufficient to address the scale and frequency of climate-induced crises. A paradigm shift towards a proactive, forecast-based system of risk management is imperative for safeguarding livelihoods, building long-term resilience, and ensuring sustainable development. This research was designed to provide the foundational evidence base for this transition by mapping the existing institutional, technical, financial, and community-level landscape and identifying concrete, actionable pathways for integrating AA into national and sub-national governance systems.

Background Context

Somaliland’s vulnerability is profoundly shaped by its geography and economy. A semi-arid climate and a heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism—livelihoods that are intrinsically sensitive to weather patterns— place its population at extreme risk. In recent decades, climate change has intensified this vulnerability. The once-predictable Gu and Deyr rainy seasons have become erratic, characterized by delayed onset, shorter duration, and often culminating in either insufficient rainfall, leading to prolonged drought, or intense, damaging downpours that cause flash floods and soil erosion. The 2020-2023 drought, the most severe in four decades, was a stark illustration of this new reality, devastating livelihoods and leading to catastrophic livestock losses of up to 70% in some pastoral communities. These climate shocks have a direct and devastating impact on food and water security, pushing millions into acute humanitarian need. Malnutrition rates remain alarmingly high, with projections indicating that 1.7 million children under five are at risk of acute malnutrition. This recurring cycle of crisis underscores the unsustainability of a purely reactive aid model and highlights the urgent need for systems that can anticipate and mitigate impacts before they reach catastrophic levels.

Source WFP

Qaran News